About three years to the next general election, the race for the top job, has earnestly begun. President Muhammadu Buhari is constitutionally disqualified from re-contesting as the position has a two-term limit. There is a vacancy in Aso Villa by 2023 and the big question is who will occupy it?
Nigeria’s presidency is historically predictable, as it failed to spring up surprises over the years. A green horn has never occupied the number one position either through military or civilian rule.
Nigeria’s four presidents since 1999 were either former governors or former head of states. Obasanjo (former Head of State), Yar’Adua (former governor), Jonathan (former governor), and Buhari, (former Head of state).
What could have been an exception was Goodluck Jonathan, but he had earlier occupied prominent positions as deputy governor, governor, vice president, and acting president before becoming the nation’s No 1.
2023 is not likely to spring new surprises, as Nigeria’s ruling class hegemony of governance may not be threatened. Nigeria’s next president will be a known face, likely coming from the ranks of a former or serving vice president, a former or serving governor, or possibly a former or serving federal legislator.
Nine factors by my reckoning will determine the next president. These are the popularity factor, northern factor, the All Progressive Congress (APC) factor, Buhari’s incumbency factor, Oshiomhole chairmanship’s factor, governors’ factor, the religious factor, status quo factor, and force majeure factor.
On the popularity factor, the positive visibility and wide popularity of a presidential aspirant across ethnic, religious, and political lines would be key in determining electoral victory. This worked for late M.K.O. Abiola in 1993 and President Muhamadu Buhari in 2015.
As for the northern factor, the Norther Nigeria has always decided, directly or indirectly who becomes Nigeria’s president, and 2023 may not be an exception.
It was the ‘North’ that decided the preferred southern candidate, even when the post was zoned to the South. At the advent of the fourth republic, when it was obvious that political power had to shift to South due to deep divisions caused by the June 12 crisis, Chief Obasanjo, who was unpopular in the Southwest, emerged president through northern support.
It is on record that Obasanjo won the 1999 presidency despite losing electoral votes in his ward, local government, state, and southwest geopolitical zone.
The North produces high votes and in politics, the winner is the person or party with the higher number of votes. In the 1999 Presidential elections between two Southerners, six states produced over one million votes, four of them in the North: Lagos-1,751,981; Kaduna-1,676,029; Rivers-1,565,603; Benue-1,252,957; Katsina-1,193,397; and Bauchi-1,176,542.
In 2011 Presidential elections, the top three states with total votes casts were all northern states: Kaduna-2.5m; Kano- 2.6m; and Katsina-16m.
The results of the 2019 Presidential elections shows the highest vote cast were recorded in the North.
President Buhari’s five top states in votes were all northern states. In Bauchi State, out of 1,024,307 valid votes cast, President Buhari received 789,428 votes; in Borno, Buhari received 836,496 out of 919,786 votes cast; Katsina: 1,232,133 out of 1,555, votes casts; Kaduna: 993,445 out of 1,663,603; and Kano 1,464,768 out of 1,891,134 votes cast.
His opponent won in most southern states, but alas, they did not return heavy votes. The swing states that recorded heavy presidential votes were Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Borno, Bauchi, Rivers, and Lagos, mostly Northern. Benue, Plateau and Delta were also periphery swing states.
Most swing states are northern, making it a key determinant of 2023 Presidency.
As the ruling party with 19 governors, 64 senators, and 215 House of Representatives members compared to its rival PDP’s 16 governors, 44 senators, and 115 House of Representatives members, APC will also be major factor.
APC has an electoral edge over the PDP, and it should be safely assumed that, whoever picks up the APC’s presidential ticket will win the 2023 election. The way APC manages or mismanages its political strength will determine whether it will retain its position as ruling party or revert to opposition in 2023.
President Muhammadu Buhari’s personality will also influence Choice 2023. This is a variable dependent on the popularity or unpopularity of President Buhari in the months preceding the 2023 general elections.
If the public rating of President Buhari nose dives, it may work against any presidential candidate presented by the APC. Obasanjo influenced the election/selection of two successive presidential candidates of the then ruling PDP, after his tenure. The two -late Umaru Yar’adua and Dr Jonathan Goodluck, were eventually elected president. Will President Buhari repeat the feat?
Internal democracy is not deepened in most political parties allowing rules to be compromised or altered to favour preferred candidates.
However, Adams Oshiomole has been projected as a stickler for the rules. If he survives till 2022/3 as national chairman, the proverbial hand of Jacob and voice of Esau may work behind the scenes to determine who wins the APC’s presidential ticket in 2023.
In Nigeria, governors are political tin gods, holding the aces. All the parties have national leaders, but the real leaders are the state governors. By and large, they control the party structures. Also, political prebendalism gives them enormous powers to practically dictate the shape and outcome of party primaries.
Delegates that will choose presidential flagbearers in most parties are largely influenced and controlled by the governors. The governors will greatly influence emergence of the next president, and I believe they may prefer one of their own- a past or serving governor.
It is not by coincidence that two consecutive presidents after the Obasanjo regime were former governors- Umaru Yar’Adua of Katsina State and Goodluck Jonathan of Bayelsa State. If most of the governors within or across party lines agree on a presidential candidate, they may be unstoppable.
Religion plays a subtle, but critical role in Nigeria’s politics in recent times, thanks to distrust generated by Boko Haram religious fundamentalism, reported cases of religious persecutions, and allegations of perceived marginalisation.
The two leading faiths are Christian and Muslim. The beautiful political era of the past has been murdered by religious intolerance. A Muslim/Muslim ticket symbolised by Abiola/Kingibe’s Hope 93 swept the country like a hurricane with popular acclamation across religious lines.
Religion is now an issue in Nigeria’s politics. What are the expectations of the faith communities come 2023? A president or/and vice who is a Christian, Muslim or same faith? Should the presidency rotate along geopolitical and faith lines? What does this portend for nation building? How will this issue be managed as we approach 2023?
The status quo factor is based on the premise that there wouldn’t be any iconoclastic change, the presidential race will be a straight one between politicians in the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), none of the fringe parties will be able to spring a surprise, and nothing will change apart from party affiliations.
Force majeure is a legal term used for unavoidable, unpredictable, or unexpected event that cannot be controlled by anyone, sometimes described as an act of God.
Force majeure has been decisive in changing permutations in Nigeria’s polity on several occasions. It was force majeure that led to the emergence of Goodluck Jonathan as Nigeria’s Acting President on February 10, 2010.
It is ungodly to speculate the ill-health or sudden death of any of the gladiators interested in the presidential seat or guess who could be the beneficiary of such unfortunate development. God knows tomorrow, yet death is a natural occurrence.
Be this as it may, a force majeure is like a red card in football, and capable of changing the game, turning potential losers to winners.
- Babatope Babalobi, writes from University of Bath, UK.
