Experts disagree as presidency says inflation’ll drop to single digit

…FG’s inflation promise, fake —PDP

…Demands jobs, power, stable Naira

•FG can only achieve single-digit inflation through data manipulation —Onyekpere

•Economic fundamentals are not favorable to achieve single digit inflation —Prof. Nwokoma

•Single-digit inflation aspiration tall order —CPPE

THE Presidency has assured Nigerians that the inflation rate in the country is heading towards a single digit and would translate to better living conditions for the masses.

Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Tope Fasua, who gave the assurance, as guest on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief yesterday, also said the drop in the inflation rate has impacted on prices of food items, which were beginning to ease. The assurance followed the headline inflation data just released by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, which said inflation rate eased to 20.12 per cent in August 2025, compared to the July 2025 rate at 21.88 per cent.

Fasua, who also reacted to former vice president, Atiku Abubakar’s recent claim that Nigerians were dying from hunger daily, said further: “Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, merely made a political statement which is expected at this time because he’s trying to see how he can wangle himself back to the presidency and I don’t comment on political things

“He doesn’t have to commend the current government for the achievement, but the rest of us just need to stick with the black and white “A 20.12 inflation is still large in many quarters because what it says is that prices are still increasing in some quarters, but not as they used to be. It is rebasing. The rebasing came in about six years after it ought to have been done. Our concern should be that our statistics and data should be much more on point and frequent.

“So the rebasing was done, and it gave us the true picture of where we are. So, for every emotional reason, somebody believes that we should still be around 30 per cent. Well, that is their own cup of tea. The most important thing is that the rebasing was done several months back, and what we are seeing is then a consistent drop in inflation.

“Inflation does not increase forever, not in any country. We have Ghana next to us, with inflation up to 40 per cent. Today, their inflation is trending down to a single digit. Nigeria’s inflation will get to a single digit as well; it’s a matter of time.

“Pakistan’s economy experienced inflation of up to 40 per cent some two years ago. Today, they are battling deflation, which is even a bigger issue because when there is no incentive for people to produce more goods themselves, everything goes down again.”Nigeria’s inflation will certainly go to a single digit. Besides, that’s not the only positive thing we can see.’’

On the recent appreciation of the naira to N1,400 region, including the increase in crude oil prices at the international market, Fasua said: “Yesterday (Monday), the naira traded at some point, N1,497/$1. For the first time in like eight months, we have clocked the N1,400 region, and that’s remarkable.

“If we look at why the inflation is reducing, for anybody that cares to know, of course, crude is one of our key drivers of inflation. The exchange rate is also another key driver. The exchange rate has stabilised, and it’s actually via market forces.

‘’The crude prices are also increasing. A very respected source I respect in the agriculture sector, told me that for the first time in 26 years, this year, we did not have the usual recourse around tomato prices soaring and shortages. Some farmers are even complaining that the government is now crashing food prices to make it affect their businesses negatively.’’

Reacting to the inflation projection of a single digit by Fasua, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) dismissed the federal government’s claim that inflation will soon drop to a single digit, describing it as a false promise aimed at deceiving Nigerians ahead of the next general elections. The PDP Deputy National Youth Leader, Timothy Osadolor, told Vanguard in Abuja on Tuesday that Fasua’s position was unrealistic and misleading, given Nigeria’s current economic realities.

He insisted there was no pathway to reducing inflation without addressing fundamental issues such as unreliable power supply, mass unemployment, and the volatile exchange rate.

According to Osadolor, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) administration

“Common sense tells us that for an economy to grow there must be production. Common sense tells us that for an economy to grow there must be power to power the industries. Common sense tells us that for an economy to grow, for inflation rates to go down, there must be job creation. Common sense tells us that for an economy or a nation to grow, there must be job security and there must be net stability,” he explained.

Osadolor criticised the government’s performance on power generation, pointing out that Kainji Dam and other facilities have repeatedly collapsed, leaving Nigeria unable to consistently generate even 5,000 megawatts (MW).

“Kainji Dam is yet to reach 5,000 MW national capacity on the national grid. For an industrial nation, the minimum we should be talking about should be like 40,000 or 50,000 MW to put electricity in the 700s of the four local grids of Nigeria.

“Now, this government cannot even sustain the all-time high of 6,000 and 7,000 MW under Jonathan and even under Buhari. We learned that at 5,000 MW, this government has never peaked. So, where are the industries and where are the jobs that they have created that will bring down inflation rates?” he asked.

FG can only achieve single-digit inflation through data manipulation – Eze Onyekpere

Reacting as well, the Executive Director of the Centre for Social Justice, Barrister Eze Onyekpere, dismissed the federal government’s claim that Nigeria’s inflation rate will soon drop to single digits, describing it as unrealistic unless statistical figures are deliberately manipulated.

“The only way they can achieve single-digit inflation is by changing the methodology of calculation, just like they did with the unemployment report,” Onyekpere said. “The reduction, the so-called deceleration of inflation we have now, is more a matter of paperwork, changing the way you calculate it.

Speaking on the development as well, Registrar/Chief Executive Officer of the Chattered Insurance Institute of Nigeria, CIIN, Mrs. Abimbola Tiamiyu said that the single digit inflation target might not be achievable soon as the country is not producing much.

She said: “Sincerely, I think that it is not going to be easy to achieve single digit inflation. The reason is because we’re not producing anything. Maybe when we start producing and we have a robust manufacturing sector, we could achieve single digit inflation”.

Economic fundamentals are not favorable to achieve single digit inflation- Prof. Nwokoma

Reacting as well, Professor Ndubisi Nwokoma, Head Department of Economics, University of Lagos, said: “Fasau cannot claim that inflation has gone down from over 30 percent, now he is talking of single digits. That is totally a political statement because if you take a look at the fundamentals, what is driving inflation and then you want to see; is it a monetary phenomenon or cost push, supply chain disruptions, and what are the driving forces of inflation?

Single-digit inflation aspiration tall order – CPPE

In another reaction, the Executive Director, Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprises, CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, asserted that the aspiration and target by the government is seen as a “tall order.”

Yusuf said: “The single-digit inflation aspiration is a tall order, is a tall order given what the current economic situation is, but the reality is that we have seen a very good trend of consistent deceleration in the inflation rate, you know, but whether that can come to single-digit by the end of the year, I think that will be difficult, because right now we are talking about the last headline inflation for August is over 20.12 per cent.”

He also queried, “So how do you now move from that 20.12 per cent to less than 10 per cent by the end of the year?

“it is good to be aspirational, but it is a tall order as far as I am concerned.

It’s possible with strict policy implementation – POFAN President

The National President, Potato Farmers Association of Nigeria, POFAN, Chief Daniel Okafor, asserted that it is possible to achieve single digits inflation rate if priority is given to policy implementation.

Okafor said: “It is possible and accessible if all goes well with the policies standard of this present administration. If they can implement half of the policy.

“My problem in this country is not policy or human resources it is only implementation is the key to success.”

Reacting as well, David Adonri, analyst and Vice Executive Chairman at Highcap Securities, said “Soon is a non specific term. Its interpretation depends on the user’s context. Perhaps, it’s for propaganda and not a claim that should be taken seriously. Barring any manipulation of statistics to suit this purpose, the likelihood of achieving a single-digit inflation rate soon in Nigeria is very remote. Rural Insecurity which is the arrowhead of the propellants of inflation, is getting worse. Many other cost factors are not decelerating.(Vanguard)