Nigeria’s fastest growth projection since 2015 can’t curb poverty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group are predicting Nigeria’s fastest growth in 11 years in 2026, but the projection falls short of what Africa’s most populous nation requires to lift people out of poverty, according to analysts.

The Washington-based Fund on Monday projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026, up from 4.2 percent in 2025, reflecting the impact of ongoing government reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions. The projection represents Nigeria’s strongest growth outlook in recent years, following growth estimates of 2.7 percent in 2015, a contraction of minus 6.4 percent in 2020, and an estimated 3.9 percent expansion in 2025.

Similarly, in its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released recently, the World Bank projected Nigeria’s economic growth to rise to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027, from an estimated 4.2 percent in 2025. The bank attributed the improved outlook to continued expansion in the services sector, particularly finance and information and communication technology, alongside a rebound in agriculture and modest growth in non-oil industries.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also shares a comparable outlook, projecting that the Nigerian economy will expand by 4.49 percent in 2026. According to the apex bank, the growth forecast reflects sustained gains from ongoing reforms, stronger private sector investment, and improved macroeconomic stability. The CBN disclosed this in its ‘2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria’ published on its website recently, noting that the projection compares with an estimated growth of 3.89 percent in 2025.

The IMF’s projection is contained in its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, which it would release alongside a hybrid press conference hosted at the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels on Monday.

Despite the optimistic growth projections, concerns remain about their impact on living standards. PwC has projected that about 141 million Nigerians could be living in poverty by 2026, despite economic growth, citing weak income growth and persistently high living costs.

Multiple reports say the nation requires seven percent to 10 percent growth to lift millions out of poverty.

Wilson Erumebor, senior economist at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), said the nation needs to grow at 10 percent to create enough jobs and lift people out of poverty.

Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, has also cautioned that while Nigeria may be gradually emerging from a period of economic fragility, the pace of growth projected by institutions such as the World Bank remains too weak to significantly reduce poverty.

Speaking in an interview with ARISE News last week, Adebajo reacted to the World Bank’s upgraded growth forecast of 4.4 percent for 2026 and 2027, stressing that such growth levels are insufficient to deliver meaningful improvements in welfare for most Nigerians.

“The way to lift Nigerians out of poverty is to grow the economy at eight to 10 percent and significantly reduce inflation,” he said.

Wale Edun, minister of Finance, admitted in November 2025 that the nation requires seven percent growth to lift millions out of poverty.

He, however, said the growth requirement is needed in 2027.

Commenting on the debate, Ayokunle Olubunmi, head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto & Co., explained that economic growth should not be confused with economic development. He noted that while economic growth focuses on expanding the size of gross domestic product, economic development is measured by outcomes such as poverty reduction and improved living standards.

According to him, regardless of the projected growth figures, Nigeria’s poverty levels will remain elevated without deliberate and sustained policies aimed at reducing inequality and driving broad-based economic development.

However, Charles Robertson, The Time Travelling Economist author, said “to escape poverty in the long-term, one to two percent per capita GDP growth is helpful.  But four to six percent is what’s needed for it to be noticeable.  If your population is growing at 2-3 percent, that means four to five percent feels okay, but six to nine percent is what you want to see.”

Matthew Ibeabuchi, an emerging markets analyst, said Nigeria needs seven percent to 10 percent growth to lift millions out of poverty.

“At 4.4 percent, you begin to feel it, but the impact will be minimal. But to haul people out of poverty, you need sufficient growth of about seven percent to 10 percent consistently for five years,” he added. (BusinessDay)