Reflections on FCT polls and voter apathy

The February 21 elections into the six councils in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) left me scratching my head on many counts. The All Progressives Congress (APC) won five of the chairmanship positions, leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with one. In 2022, the PDP and APC won three apiece. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), positioned as the main opposition party ahead of the 2027 general election, did not win any council, and the resultant “dragging” on social media has been out of this world. It is understandable if they were expected to perform better than they did. The trolling should not surprise anyone: that is consistent with the way politics is played in Nigeria.

My first comment is that ADC’s performance should not be taken as an indication of how the 2027 elections will go. Council elections are the least attractive to Nigerians. I can conveniently guess that many Nigerians do not know the names of their councillors and council chairpersons. I know the name of my council chair in Lagos state only because I see her posters everywhere. She puts her image on every signpost and everything else. There is no way I can miss that. But I don’t think I can point her out in a crowd if she is not surrounded by security agents and praise singers. And maybe I would only be able to identify her on the road based on the number of mighty SUVs in her convoy.

My mind goes back to the first major election that was held after the APC was formed by a coalition of opposition parties in 2013. That was the Ekiti governorship in June 2014. It was hyped as the test-run for the 2015 elections. PDP’s Ayo Fayose defeated APC’s Kayode Fayemi, and many analysts announced that APC was brought in dead (BID). Not so fast. The Ekiti result did not shape future elections. Two months later, APC’s Rauf Aregbesola defeated PDP’s Iyiola Omisore to win the Osun governorship. Of course, APC went on to win the presidential election. No, I am not suggesting ADC is about to repeat the feat. I am just saying that the FCT polls cannot be used to finalise ADC’s fate.

Still, the FCT council polls confirmed that nothing has really changed in our electoral culture. There were allegations of active and passive rigging. There was the issue of voter suppression. Some voters could not find their names at their polling units as they had been moved kilometres away from their usual stations without their knowing. This could have discouraged many from casting their votes, given the elimination of the ease of voting near home and the discomfort of voting in an unfamiliar territory. This can negatively affect turnout. Also, there were allegations of vote trading. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) later said that suspects had been arrested.

Although there were reports of thugs operating in some isolated areas, it appeared insignificant compared to the shooting and ballot-snatching that characterise elections in Nigeria. My guess would be that Abuja has not yet been fully sucked into the electoral violence culture. The thugs are still operating on the periphery. But, by and large, almost everything that is associated with elections in Nigeria was present in the FCT polls, particularly allegations of rigging, mutilation of results, voter intimidation, and logistical lapses. ADC even did something on the day of the election that might have violated electoral laws by posting “alternative” results on social media to claim victory.

How did INEC perform? I would say we still can’t judge Prof Joash Amupitan, the new helmsman, yet. Conducting polls in six councils pales into nothingness when you look at the bigger picture of umpiring elections in 774 councils, 36 states and the FCT. Results were uploaded to IReV, the INEC portal, but it was not until the following day that it was completed. In the Anambra governorship election last November, virtually all the results were uploaded same day. On that count, I would say Amupitan’s INEC performed better in Anambra. Some said the lack of “real time” transmission favoured APC in the FCT polls, but I’m not sure those saying such things took themselves seriously.

That said, my biggest worry concerning the FCT polls was the voter turnout. It was awful. And yet, local government areas impact more on the daily lives of millions of ordinary Nigerians. It remains disheartening that it is the election they take less seriously. In the scheme of things, a council chairperson — compared to the president in Abuja — should have more meaningful impact on the lives of the masses. It is the councils that are constitutionally mandated to handle several aspects of governance that shape the quality of life: primary education, adult education, vocational education, primary healthcare, disease control, safe water, sanitation, local roads, streetlights, and markets.

If the 774 local councils were to deliver on these functions excellently, the living standards at the grassroots would be far better. Multidimensional poverty would diminish. Nigerians would be healthier and happier. But for reasons I cannot fathom, there is more excitement about presidential and governorship elections than council polls. Some commentators claim to know the reason: they blame “low trust in the electoral system” and “fear of violence”. I do not know and I cannot say. Perhaps, there should be research into the issue. I cannot lie down in my bedroom in Lagos and conclude that people did not vote in Gwagwalada because of “low trust” and “fear of violence”.

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar said the turnout was a “damning verdict” on the health of our democracy “under the current administration”. The former vice-president, who is eyeing the ADC presidential ticket, said such “abysmal” civic participation in the nation’s capital (“the symbolic heartbeat of the federation”) is not accidental. He said: “It is the predictable outcome of a political environment poisoned by intolerance, intimidation, and the systematic weakening of opposition voices. When citizens lose faith that their votes matter, democracy begins to die. What we are witnessing is not mere voter apathy. Democracy in Nigeria is being suffocated slowly, steadily, and dangerously.”

The irony of it, though, is that the turnout in 2026 is better than that of 2022. INEC, in its response to concerns, said while turnout was 9.4 percent (goodness!) in the 2022 polls, it rose to 14 percent this time around. In raw data, 1.68 million voters were registered for the 2026 polls, up from 1.58 million in 2022 — an increase of 100,000 voters, or 6.3 percent growth in the register. Mr Wilfred Ifogah, the INEC acting director of voter education and publicity, said while 148,685 voters participated in 2022, the figure rose to 239,210 in 2026. I would not conclude that the low turnout in 2026 is completely attributable to the “systematic weakening of opposition voices” as Atiku authoritatively declared.

For sure, we cannot dismiss Atiku’s claims with a wave of the hand — even if we know he was playing politics. We cannot run away from the fact that there is a chronic problem of voter apathy in Nigeria. The 2023 presidential poll recorded only 26.71 percent — meaning just about three out of every 10 registered voters turned up at their polling units. Why do people register and fail to vote? Is it just to get the permanent voter’s card to use as ID? Is it just to meet government requirements? Rather than politicise the disturbing data, I believe we should genuinely seek to find out why we are here. Without evidence, we will continue to make sweeping statements and offer the wrong answers.

In my own case, I have failed to vote on many occasions for mostly good reasons. There were times I was on reportorial duties. In the December 1998 council elections, I was on duty in Imo state, where I also covered the January 1999 governorship poll. I was on ground in Niger state for the February 1999 presidential election. I was in a similar situation in 2003 when I travelled to Plateau, and 2007 when I was in Delta state. In other words, there are those who are being disenfranchised because of the nature of their jobs. Emergency workers fall into this category. INEC officials and ad hoc staff are also affected by this. Members of the security agencies, particularly the police, are affected as well.

But the number of those of us in this “duty” category may not be substantial enough for researchers to reach a conclusion. So, I offer another reason: I have failed to vote at times because I do not believe we can elect the best candidate through the ballot. My theory has always been that it is the strongest — not necessarily the best — candidates that win elections. If the strongest is also the best, praise the Lord. But candidates win elections because they have the strongest muscle: the fan base, the war chest, the network and the ground game. So, I tell myself once in a while: if not that I am performing a civic duty, why should I go and queue in the sun and the rain to waste my vote?

Reforms to minimise rigging have also inadvertently made the voting process tedious. The stress of accreditation and voting takes half of your day away. In many countries with decent turnout, the processes are simpler and faster. Movement restriction is also an issue. If your polling unit is miles away, why take the risk of walking there? Also, maybe voter register needs a clean-up to get rid of duplicated, underage and dead voters. A good study should help us pin-point the drivers of low turnout. We should not resort to guesswork. As I said, I do not know the answers. But I do know one thing: the FCT polls are not a definitive indication of what is to come in 2027. The day is still young.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

BITE OF BENIN

Members of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) were attacked on Wednesday in Benin, Edo state. Should this be considered a troubling indication of what lies ahead as we approach the 2027 elections? We still do not know who the attackers are — whether they are intra-party or anti-ADC forces. Unfortunately, the truth is what dies first in matters of this nature but I will hope — even against hope — that police will thoroughly investigate the incident and arrest the culprits. Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo state had previously made a somewhat hostile statement that is now being linked, rightly or wrongly, to the attack and he will have a lot of explaining to do. Wild.

DISU ON DUTY

Mr Tunji Disu has been named acting inspector-general of police in place of Dr Kayode Egbetokun, who left office dramatically last week. The major challenge before Disu, an experienced operations officer, is ensuring a hitch-free 2027 general election — security-wise. Before that, though, may I urge him to terminate this senseless tinted glass permit business? You either place a total ban on non-factory fitted tint or allow motorists to do whatever they like. Charging a fee is nothing but brisk business. It does not address any security issues as all motorists can apply, pay and get the permit. So what problem are we going to solve beyond making money and paying commission? Mercantilist.

FAST FORWARD

Following complaints over a clash with Ramadan, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has altered the time table for the 2027 elections. Presidential and national assembly polls will now hold on January 16 — against the original February 20 date — while governorship and house of assembly elections will take place on February 6, previously March 6. Although the shift was clearly unnecessary as Ramadan does not stop anybody from voting, but it serves two purposes: shutting down another attempt by mischief makers to heat up the polity hiding under religion and also ensuring voter turnout will not be affected by Ramadan. One stone killing two birds. Pragmatism.

NO COMMENT

Did you hear this? A princely sum of N100 million was transferred to the personal account of Victor Egbetokun from the Anambra state government’s security vote while his father was the inspector-general of police. Mr Benjamin Hundeyin, the force spokesperson, confirmed the story, first reported by Sahara Reporters. “When [they] said N100 million was paid into the account of the son of the IGP, I called the son of the (former) IGP immediately to know what was going on, and he explained. He said he saw N100 million in his account, and he told his account’s officer to reverse the transaction immediately,” he said. Asking for a friend: how did Anambra get Victor’s account details? Hmmmm.

•Written By Simon Kolawole