‘We ran for our lives’: Political violence returns as 2027 looms

The first gunshots sent plastic chairs flying. At the dusty entrance to the APC congress venue in Ovade, Delta State, supporters who had arrived early on Saturday, February 21, 2026, first thought the noise was just another routine party scuffle. Men ducked. Women screamed. Some stumbled as they rushed toward the narrow gate.

“It was chaos. We ran for our lives. Some of us fell and got injured. They attacked us at the gate and prevented us from entering. They were holding all kinds of weapons. It was only God that saved madam,” recalled one eyewitness, still shaken hours later.

The “madam” was Erhiatake Ibori-Suenu, a member of the House of Representatives and daughter of former Delta governor James Ibori. According to aides and witnesses, the armed disruption at the All Progressives Congress (APC) local government congress looked far more organised than the usual party skirmishes.

Her camp believes it was a targeted assassination attempt. Whether investigators eventually confirm that claim or not, the Ovade incident has now joined a troubling list of political attacks and near-misses that have followed Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, and which analysts warn could intensify as the country moves closer to the 2027 elections.

A Close Call in Ovade

Witnesses said tension rose at the Ethiope West Local Government venue shortly after Ibori-Suenu arrived. Armed men allegedly blocked access to the field where the congress was to take place. Moments later, shots rang out.

Members of her entourage said the attackers appeared focused on stopping her from entering the venue.

“They denied her entry and immediately the shooting started. If she had stepped further into that field before the gunfire began, the story today might have been different,” one aide said.

Security operatives attached to the lawmaker quickly formed a protective shield and moved her out of the area. Some personnel reportedly sustained injuries while pushing back the attackers.

Several supporters were also hurt in the chaos, although authorities have yet to release an official casualty figure. Some victims were treated at nearby medical facilities.

An aide close to the lawmaker maintained the violence was deliberate.

“This was not random violence. This was targeted. The intention was clear,” the aide said, alleging that certain powerful interests were uncomfortable with the unfolding congress.

No public evidence has yet been presented to back that claim, and as of press time, no arrests had been announced.

In the immediate aftermath, Ibori-Suenu adopted a calming tone, urging supporters not to retaliate.

“I urge everyone to remain calm. We must not take the law into our hands despite this unprovoked assault,” she was quoted as saying.

Echoes in Benin

Barely three days later, another political gathering, this time in Benin City, descended into panic.

Former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi had joined leaders of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), including former APC national chairman and ex-Edo governor John Odigie-Oyegun, for an event linked to the defection of Olumide Akpata.

According to multiple accounts, suspected gunmen first attacked the ADC secretariat on Ogbelaka Street before trailing the delegation to Odigie-Oyegun’s residence in the Government Reserved Area. Shots damaged vehicles, the gate and nearby property.

No deaths were reported, though some supporters were said to have been injured. Obi and other principals escaped unharmed.

Opposition figures quickly described the incident as an assassination attempt. The Edo State Government and the APC denied any involvement, suggesting the violence could be linked to internal ADC tensions or unrelated criminal activity. Police authorities said investigations had begun and security around key figures had been strengthened.

For many political actors nationwide, the Benin attack, coming so soon after the Delta scare, did not feel like coincidence. It felt like a warning.

The pattern has precedent. In September 2022, gunmen attacked the convoy of Ifeanyi Ubah in Anambra State, killing several aides and police escorts in what security sources described as a coordinated assassination attempt. The senator survived.

Abuja: Fear Travels Faster Than Bullets

Nearly 500 kilometres away in Abuja, the Benin incident was already shaping quiet conversations among opposition organisers.

On Friday evening, shortly after breaking his Ramadan fast, Musa Abdullahi, an ADC grassroots mobiliser, sat with Sunday Vanguard outside a small tea stall near Area 11, Garki, replaying shaky phone footage of the Benin attack.

“That Benin incident really shook many of us. When you see people of that level being targeted, you begin to ask yourself some hard questions,” he said.

Abdullahi has spent years working quietly behind the scenes, coordinating supporters and logistics for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) before later joining the ADC. He may not be a headline name, but like many ward-level organisers, he plays a crucial role in keeping party structures active between election cycles.

Since the Benin incident, he said, anxiety within ADC circles has noticeably increased.

“People are genuinely worried. Phones have been ringing. Colleagues are checking on each other. Some are even reconsidering whether to attend big political gatherings for now,” he explained.

For him, the Ovade incident was troubling. But the attack involving Obi and Odigie-Oyegun made the danger feel immediate.

“In Delta, some people still argued it might be local congress trouble. But Benin was different. That one involved national figures. It sends a message that nobody should feel too comfortable,” he said.

He paused and looked down at his phone. “I have children at home. My wife already worries whenever I travel for party work. Incidents like this only make those fears worse. Politics is not supposed to feel like you’re walking into danger,” he added quietly.

Security analysts say this kind of anxiety among mid-level political actors often appears before broader electoral instability.

A Pattern Decades in the Making

To seasoned observers, the February incidents fit into a longer and deeply troubling history.

1999–2000:

The early Fourth Republic recorded relatively few nationally prominent assassinations, though sporadic local violence accompanied the transition from military rule and the early consolidation of the PDP.

2001 — the documented wave begins.

On December 19, 2001, Hon. Odunayo Olagbaju, an Osun State lawmaker, was stabbed to death in front of a police station in Ile-Ife during an AD factional crisis.

Four days later, on December 23, 2001, the country was stunned by the killing of Bola Ige, then Attorney-General of the Federation, who was shot in his bedroom in Ibadan. Suspects were charged, but the case later collapsed.

2002

The violence spread. On August 15, 2002, Ahmed Pategi, PDP chairman in Kwara State, was assassinated.

In September 2002, Barnabas Igwe and his wife Abigail Igwe were ambushed and killed in Onitsha after he openly criticised the state government.

On November 25, 2002, Lagos PDP aspirant Dele Arojo was also murdered.

2003: Pre-Election Bloodletting

As the 2003 polls approached, killings intensified sharply. Victims during the period included:

– Ogbonnaya Uche, shot in his Owerri residence.

– Theodore Agwatu, killed in his home.

– Harry Marshall, shot dead in Abuja on March 5, 2003.

– Ikenna Ibor and several other regional figures.

There was also a failed assassination attempt on Borno Speaker Inuwa Kubo.

2004–2006: High-Profile Targets

On February 6, 2004, PDP National Vice-Chairman (South) Aminasoari Dikibo was shot dead while travelling to a party meeting.

By 2006, the killings had reached another peak. On July 27, 2006, Lagos PDP governorship aspirant Funsho Williams was found bound and strangled in his Ikoyi residence.

Weeks later, on August 14, 2006, Ekiti PDP aspirant Ayo Daramola was stabbed and shot in his home.

2007–2020: A Partial Lull

After 2007, the number of high-profile assassinations dropped, but violence at the local level did not disappear. In January 2010, Action Congress politician Dipo Dina was shot dead in Ogun State. Former anti-corruption chief and now National Security Adviser to the President, Nuhu Ribadu, also reportedly survived several assassination attempts over the years. During the 2011 and 2015 election cycles, deadly clashes were still reported, even though there were fewer brazen attacks on prominent figures.

2021–2026: Warning

Signs Return

Recent incidents suggest renewed danger. On May 30, 2021, former presidential aide Ahmed Gulak was shot dead in Imo State. In December 2022, PDP grassroots figure Mudashiru Baraka was macheted to death in Oyo. On February 23, 2023, Labour Party candidate Oyibo Chukwu was ambushed and killed in Enugu. In the Southeast, killings involving figures such as Okechukwu Okoye and Nelson Achukwu have further complicated the security landscape.

The ‘U-Curve’ Concern

Conflict trackers consistently show political violence rising 12–24 months before general elections.

Analysts say the pattern is structural. When political power becomes heavily concentrated in one party, the fiercest fights often move inward, into primaries and factional battles.

As of early 2026, the APC controls roughly 30 of Nigeria’s 36 states, echoing the PDP’s dominance in the mid-2000s.

In August 2025, the Chief of Defence Staff, now Defence Minister, Christopher Musa, warned that the rising wave of killings across the country was already being linked to early political manoeuvring ahead of the 2027 elections.

Public Reactions: ‘Nigeria Must Not Return to the Dark Days’

Former presidential candidate Peter Obi raises alarm.

Reacting after the Benin incident, Obi warned that the country must not normalise politically linked violence.

“Nigeria must not return to the dark days where political participation becomes a life-and-death gamble,” he said.

Former Edo governor John Odigie-Oyegun calls for investigation

Odigie-Oyegun urged security agencies to thoroughly probe the attack and reassure political actors of their safety.

“This development is deeply troubling and must be investigated so that confidence in the democratic process is not eroded,” he said.

Dr. Osmond Aikhena questions the silence of authorities. The public affairs commentator expressed anger over what he described as a troubling pattern of political violence.

“Were you expecting the same terrorist political party who orchestrated the assassination attempt on former governors Peter Obi, John Oyegun and Osarheimen Osunbor, and Senator David Mark, Olumide Akpata, etc to condemn their well plotted criminality? Come on guys. Read the room. The bigger issue is Nigerians aren’t tired of the APC. If they were, that country should be uninhabitable for these monsters at this moment,” he said.

Ikuku Agba alleges official indifference. The social commentator said the lack of swift condemnation raised questions.

“I’m not surprised the presidency did not condemn the assassination attempt on Peter Obi’s life. Of course you can’t condemn what you arranged and commend,” he said.

Williams Okojie laments muted bipartisan outrage. The political observer said the response across ethnic and political lines had been disappointing.

“It’s even more tragic that Igbo people failed to adopt bipartisan condemnation of the assassination attempt on Obi’s life,” he said.

Solomon Musa draws international comparison. The commentator compared the Nigerian response to reactions abroad.

“Yes, Biden, Obama, and Harris all publicly condemned the July 2024 assassination attempt on Trump shortly after it happened. The Feb 24, 2026 Benin City incident involving Peter Obi, John Odigie-Oyegun, and ADC members, gunmen firing at their location after an event, is widely reported as an alleged assassination attempt. President Tinubu has not issued a public condemnation as of today, though opposition figures and groups have urged him to,” he said.

An aide to Erhiatake Ibori-Suenu insists the Ovade attack was deliberate.

Members of the lawmaker’s camp maintained that the gunfire at the congress venue was not accidental.

“This was not random violence. This was targeted. The intention was clear,” the aide said.

Eyewitnesses recount the panic on the ground. Supporters present at the Ovade venue described scenes of fear and confusion.

“We ran for our lives… It was only God that saved madam,” one witness told reporters.

  The Stakes Ahead

Interviews with political scientists and security experts point to familiar drivers: the winner-takes-all nature of Nigerian politics, weak internal party democracy and the enduring culture of impunity.

Back in Abuja, Musa Abdullahi says the fear is already changing behaviour.

“People still believe in the democratic process. But nobody wants to ignore the warning signs,” he said.

He slipped his phone into his pocket before saying, “At the end of the day, politics should be about ideas and competition, not about who is lucky enough to make it home safely.”

In Ovade, injured supporters are still recovering. In Benin, damaged property is being repaired. Investigations are ongoing.

But beneath the surface, a familiar anxiety is returning to Nigeria’s political bloodstream.

With the 2027 elections casting a long shadow, the question confronting the country is stark: Can Nigeria break the cycle this time, before the next gunshots scatter another crowd? (Vanguard)