Jostle For Kwara Governorship Intensifies

With barely a year to the 2027 general elections, the race to the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship ticket in Kwara State is already intensifying.

The political landscape has become a complex battlefield with every aspirant positioning for maximum advantage.

Those who have declared officially and other aspirants who are yet to do so  have already began subtle campaigns and are actively mobilising grassroots support and strategic alliances with behind-the-scenes political negotiations among others.

Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is completing his second and final term in 2027, leaving the Ahmadu Bello Government House in Ilorin open.

In a move widely interpreted as setting a new standard in state politics, the governor declared that the APC primaries will be open and merit-based, rejecting any notion of anointing a successor or building a dynasty.

Analysts suggest that while this promotes a fair contest, it also introduces multiple points of tension, especially among aspirants with overlapping constituencies or ambitions.

However, with the race heating up and the governor promising a merit-based primary, attention has now turned to the potential APC candidate(s) in the state.

So far, several figures have emerged within the APC, each staking a claim to the governorship and shaping the state’s political calculations. The question however remains which APC aspirants are actively positioning themselves for the top job?”

Senator Sadiq Suleiman Umar:

Senator Sadiq Suleiman Umar, representing Kwara North, is popular. Penultimate week, he declared his gubernatorial ambition on national television. He has earned goodwill across Kwara North through development initiatives and community outreach including sports lately as the race hots up.

Yet, despite this grassroots advantage, Umar faces structural challenges. He might not be the governor’s preferred successor even against the backdrop of the governor preferring an open contest. In Kwara politics, incumbency influence and elite backing often outweigh popularity. Analysts note that while his technocratic approach may appeal to moderate voters, he will need strategic alliances to navigate the internal dynamics of the APC and secure a statewide appeal beyond his district.

Salihu Danladi:

Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Salihu Yakubu Danladi whose aides and supporters have flooded the Social media with his ambition, is widely regarded as Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s anointed candidate. Danladi’s loyalty has been unwavering, having defended the administration during controversial legislative moments, including amendments to the Freedom of Information law. His institutional leverage is unquestionable, with strong support within Assembly circles and party structures.

However, the perception of being imposed from above could be a liability. Kwara’s electorate remains sensitive to godfatherism, having demonstrated in the 2019 Otoge movement its willingness to punish political imposition.

Danladi’s challenge lies in stepping out of the governor’s shadow, convincing voters that his candidacy is rooted in competence and vision rather than patronage. Analysts suggest that Danladi’s success will depend on balancing loyalty with independent credibility, especially among undecided voters in Kwara Central and South.

Saliu Mustapha

Senator Saliu Mustapha is the Turaki of Ilorin and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development. Mustapha’s support base spans across the entire and his popularity reverberates far beyond his Kwara Central senatorial district he represents at the national assembly which gives him an edge in a state where the district holds the largest voting population.

Yet the Mustapha campaign faces a significant complication which might turn out to be an advantage if well handled. This is the Governor–Mustapha conundrum. Speculation that Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq may pursue the Senate seat coveted by Mustapha initially introduced tensions. But two of them appeared to have made up by their public camaraderie lately. Analysts however believed that if mismanaged, the issue could fracture party unity and compromise APC’s electoral strength. The move may see the Senator who is in his first term, conceding the ticket to the Governor who both hails from Central.

The belief in Ilorin Emirate is that traditional titles often carry symbolic expectations. For the Turaki, the expectation is even higher because of the legacy established by previous holders.

Alhaji Sanni Okin, the first Turaki in the history of Ilorin Emirate served within the Native Authority structure of the First Republic era. Late Dr. Olusola Saraki became a senator and later Senate Leader, dominating Kwara politics for decades. Dr. Bukola Saraki followed a similar trajectory, serving as governor and eventually President of the Senate.

However, with AbdulRazaq’s potential interest in the Senate seat coinciding with Mustapha’s ambition, the stage appears to be heading for what some analysts describe as a “titanic internal contest” within the party in the run-up to 2027.

Yahaya Seriki:

Ambassador Yahaya Seriki, a wealthy mining magnate and political investor since 2015, is widely viewed as Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s Plan B and his recent huge donations at “ordinary functions”, has fueled that narrative and increased the perception of unpredictability of the governors personally. Seriki’s candidacy provides an alternative if northern zoning calculations falter. But whether he would be able to dislodge heavy weights from the central for the tickets remained to be seen.

Known for his quiet influence and capacity to marshal resources, Seriki is also rumoured to have the ears of Seyi Tinubu. It remains to be seen how much this can go.

Seriki’s challenge is to translate financial strength and loyalty into broad electoral appeal. Analysts note that while wealth facilitates campaign visibility, it cannot substitute for deep-rooted grassroots connection, particularly in Kwara South and other parts of the state.

Lanre Issa-Onilu:

Director-General of the National Orientation Agency, Lanre Issa Onilu is the latest APC aspirant to officially declare for the race. A seasoned journalist and respected public servant, Onilu’s entry has increased the stakes. His strengths include strategic communication skills and national recognition. However, weak grassroots ties, particularly in key voting blocs remain a factor that he should work on. Observers suggest that Issa-Onilu’s candidacy could only gain traction if national power brokers intervene decisively on his behalf.

Abubakar Suleiman:

Professor Abubakar Suleiman, DG of the National Institute of Legislative and Democratic Studies, brings a combination of academic prestige and national political experience. As a former minister under President Jonathan and recent entrant into APC from PDP, Suleiman has successfully mobilised former PDP chieftains in Kwara, creating an alternative support network.

Yet, his association with the Saraki political brand presents a double-edged sword. He is expected to join the race after his tenure as DG of NILDS.

A former minister, he is known to be experienced in law making, legal issues and administration which gives him an edge in understanding the interplay of the three arms of government.

Suleiman’s campaign, analysts argued, must balance technocratic appeal with messaging that reassures the electorate of his independence and commitment to inclusive governance. He has been visible on billboards across Ilorin metropolis to sell his aspirations

Lateef Fagbemi:

Attorney-General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi, is regarded as one of the potential dark horses in Kwara state, the other who has been once prominent at a time in the state but very silent now. Though he has not formally declared interest, advocacy groups have hinted at a Fagbemi-for-Governor campaign. His entry could give Yoruba-speaking constituencies another claim to state leadership, but raises questions around zoning and political structure. Analysts suggest that while Fagbemi’s profile is elite and impressive, his success will depend on strategic alliances and the ability to overcome internal party sensitivities regarding northern and central regional claims.

Speaking on the contest for the governorship ticket of the APC in the state, he described the process as complex because of the number of influential aspirants involved.

“The APC ticket in Kwara State, like in many other states, will be complicated because many interests are involved. In the past, outgoing governors used to have a strong say in who succeeded them, but the situation is changing.”

He explained that the national leadership of the party now plays a more significant role in determining outcomes.

“The national leadership of the APC now has interests in what happens in the states. Because of that, I am not sure any governor can simply promise someone the ticket and make it happen.”

Prof Hassan Saliu, National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association, explained that the party must understand the fragility of the scenario to accommodate the interest of the governor and other aspirants.

“If the governor officially signals his interest in contesting for the Senate, Senator Saliu Mustapha may have to drop his ambition. The question then becomes what political arrangement will be put in place to compensate him? He asked.

Commenting on the APC race, Prof Hassan Saliu observed that the candidates are divided into two: “one depending on the endorsement of the governor and the other group relying on Abuja”.

Advising aspirants, he urged them to avoid arrogance and instead engage more with ordinary citizens.

“What I would advise the aspirants is to market themselves properly and stop exhibiting arrogance and pomposity. They should come down to the level of the people they want to govern.” (Daily trust)