Rivers 2027: People’s Choice Versus Godfather’s Pick

Among the takeaways from the recent national conventions by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and one of the country’s main opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is the emergent shape of the endgame of the governorship race in Rivers State come 2027. Courtesy of the twists and turns at the conventions, it would seem as if the polls in the state had assumed the status of a settled matter, even before the actual process.

For some observers, the current state of affairs points to the polls being denied the beauty of a true democratic process, whereby the Rivers State community would be availed the opportunity of systematically and collectively electing the next governor of the state, from a complement of aspirants, and in expression of the popular will.  Rather, the choice of the next governor is increasingly being seen to be by the dictates of an individual potentate, in the person of Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).  This is neither a rumour nor a misrepresentation of the officer. Rather, it is his oft-repeated proclamation in the public space, which has gone viral.

And for this, he has received significant umbrage from those who are uncomfortable with such posturing by him, even as there is no constitutional restriction that debars any individual; and in this case, Nyesom Wike, from sponsoring any candidate of his choice for any office in the country. This makes his bid to sponsor a candidate of his choice and with his personal resources a legitimate exercise. Interestingly too, some pundits have even progressed to nominating names of some individuals who are close to Wike as purportedly endorsed by him for the Rivers State governorship race come 2027. This development has, however, been debunked by the minister as a baseless speculation.

However, Wike’s gambit in the permutation with respect to the next governor of Rivers State has raised several issues associated with electioneering and sponsorship of candidates in the state and even across the rest of the country. One of such is the inspiration it offers any other sponsor(s) of candidate(s) to get their act together and pick up the gauntlet. In this context is the expectation for similar initiatives to surface and be counted. Expectedly too, the camp of the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara, may also not be taking things casually, but are gearing up with matching responses to the Wike challenge.

As can be easily recalled, before the recent back-to-back conventions by the APC and the PDP, the Fubara -Wike tangle had featured a one-sided onslaught, with the former receiving sundry salvoes aimed at scuttling his second-term bid as governor of the state. In the barrage of salvoes was the manifest emasculation of the governor by denying him effective control of his administration, as well as the political structure in the state. At the last count, the bulk of the membership of the Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA) and a wider cross section of chairmen of local government councils in the state operate under the direct control of the Wike camp, leaving the governor with limited capacity to wield the statutory powers due his office.

Beyond the foregoing was the reported development during the conventions, where Wike conducted exclusive briefings at different times for the Rivers State delegates of both the APC and PDP.  Without doubt, the mileage so generated in projection of whatever his agenda is cannot be discounted.

However, just as the verse credited to former Emperor of France Napoleon Bonaparte that “impossibility is a word that is found only in the dictionary of fools,” the governorship of the state come 2027 remains notionally far from a settled matter. Rather, the jostle may have simply entered a new phase where fresh perspectives by the contending camps are now the bargaining chips.

For the Wike camp, the primary plank for asserting dominance of the political turf remains its control of the historical political structure, which he built during his tenure as governor of the state, and which actually brought his successor, Fubara to power. Meanwhile, this structure has since been retained, as well as remained ominously intact and serving like the mythical ‘Sword of Damocles’ hanging over Fubara’s head to cut him to size at the dictates of his predecessor.  Added to such dominance over Fubara is the clout Wike wields at the federal level with his appointment as the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and by implication, enjoys more than a pittance of critical political support from President Bola Tinubu.

Meanwhile, in spite of its apparent handicaps, the Fubara camp is not bereft of critical stock of arsenal for the contest for a second term for the governor. Among the assets in his camp is the key factor of incumbency, which can equate to a magic wand with which he can maneuver with dexterity in delivering a second term. Other factors like recent instances of credible, strategic political alignment with the power establishment in the country, prospects of organic support, authentic zonal representation, verifiable performance in office, career antecedents and disposition towards peace in the state, provide Fubara camp more than enough traction to make him fly into a second term on the wings of popularity as the people’s choice.

Over to the wider Rivers State community to ensure that their political future is guaranteed come the 2027 polls.  As the cliché goes, when a potential victim fails to do the needful to avoid his hurt, he loses the status of a victim and becomes an accomplice to the assault against himself.

•Written By Monima Daminabo