…CSOs say elections are under serious threat
As political tensions heighten ahead of the 2027 general election, observers are raising concerns that Nigeria may be drifting toward a dangerous concentration of political power reminiscence of the era of Sani Abacha.
From 1995 to 1998, under Abacha’s regime, five political parties were controversially registered, each ultimately endorsing him as a sole consensus candidate in what critics described as a calculated attempt to civilian military rule.
Today, observers warn that emerging developments within the political space particularly disputes involving opposition parties and the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) could signal troubling parallels.
The recent gale of defections by opposition governors and lawmakers to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has raised concerns of an emerging one-party dominance, with the ruling party now controlling 31of Nigeria’s 36 states.
Many Nigerians are also concerned about deliberate attempts to weaken opposition political parties and stifle the political space ahead of 2027.
Also, last Wednesday, the Commission withdraw recognition of African Democratic Congress (ADC), the only party that appeared strong enough to present a candidate that could challenge incumbent President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 poll.
In a statement INEC said it would no longer recognise David Mark as the national chairman of the party and Rauf Aregbesola as the national secretary.
INEC’s latest decision effectively placed the party in a state of limbo, with few weeks left for parties to submit the names of candidates for the 2027 polls.
At the centre of the controversy is a suit filed by Nafiu Bala Gombe, a former deputy national chairman of the party, challenging the legitimacy of the current leadership structure and arguing that it was not properly constituted in line with the party’s constitution and internal organs, particularly the National Executive Committee (NEC).
While party sources say the issue is more procedural than factional, the litigation has generated conflicting judicial interpretations, prompting INEC to take a neutral but consequential stance that has far-reaching implications for the party’s operations
By withholding recognition, INEC has effectively created uncertainty around the ADC’s ability to carry out essential electoral functions, including the nomination and submission of candidates ahead of the statutory deadlines.
Analysts caution that without a recognised leadership structure, any process undertaken by the party may be deemed invalid.
About eight months to the presidential election in 2027 and with other opposition political parties in disarray due to internal crises which have crumpled their effectiveness and competitiveness, political analysts say a diminished ADC could reduce electoral competitiveness and limit options available to voters.
Dipo Oguntusi, political analyst, told BusinessDay, that “The situation is particularly worrying, because just like tradition in the past, we are likely to see a situation where most of the smaller political parties, adopt President Tinubu as their consensus candidate at the presidential election.
“This perhaps would leave him with no major challenger, effectively giving him easy-ride to his second term.
“We may be heading to one-man standing alone without any major challenger as candidate, this has never happened before in Nigeria’s history, but this is the card that they seem to be playing.”
Beyond party-level implications, analysts warn that the situation could have broader consequences for Nigeria’s democratic process, particularly in terms of public confidence in electoral institutions and the credibility of the 2027 poll.
A constitutional lawyer and political analyst, Ayo Olanrewaju, cautioned that any situation where opposition parties are weakened either by internal crisis or regulatory actions creates fertile ground for democratic erosion.
“Democracy thrives on competition,” he said. “If institutions, intentionally or otherwise, allow a scenario where only one dominant party stands unchallenged, then we are walking a dangerous path. Nigerians remember the Abacha years, and no one wants a repeat.”
Some critics argue that INEC must tread carefully and avoid actions that could be interpreted as interference.
Public Affairs Analyst, Musa Sadiq, noted that while political parties must resolve their internal conflicts, the electoral body has a responsibility to remain neutral and supportive of democratic plurality.
“INEC must not complicate an already fragile situation within opposition ranks. Its role is to ensure fairness, not to be seen as tilting the field,” he said.
The ambitions of key political figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, have also come under scrutiny. Critics within opposition circles argue that intense struggles for party control risk repeating patterns that weakened the PDP in the last electoral cycle.
But disagreeing in an interview with BusinessDay, Dotun Lawal, a political analyst, argued that there was nothing INEC could do in this instance than to cease the recognition of both camps.
“The whole issue is in a court of law. It was the court that said the status quo ante bellum should be maintained and that none of the parties should go ahead with any activity,” he said.
The analyst further stated that it would be wrong for anyone to blame the ruling party for such development.
Similarly, Halima Dankoli, political sociologist, warned that elite power tussles within opposition parties could inadvertently aid the dominance of the ruling party if not carefully managed.
“When opposition parties implode due to personal ambitions, they do the work of their rivals for them,” she said. “The danger is not just institutional; it is also internal.”
2027 general election under serious threat – CSOs
The civil society groups are urging the leadership of INEC, particularly its chairman, to safeguard the commission’s credibility and ensure that Nigeria’s electoral space remains open and competitive.
The Movement for Credible Elections (MCE) accused the APC and INEC of undermining Nigeria’s democratic process, warning that the 2027 general election are under serious threat.
In a media briefing in Lagos addressed by Pat Utomi, the group’s leader said it was deeply disturbed by the emerging alliance between the APC, a section of the Nigerian judiciary and INEC, describing it as an unethical combo poised to disenfranchise and exclude legitimate presidential contestants and political parties from the 2027 ballot.
Utomi, a political economist, pointed to INEC’s recent decision to withdraw recognition of the leadership of the ADC, including David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, as evidence of what he called a broader plot against opposition parties.
“The statement by INEC withdrawing recognition of the ADC leadership is a malicious attempt to decapitate the party and the opposition in general, to ensure that none of the leading presidential aspirants gets on the ballot in 2027,” Utomi said.
He further faulted INEC’s reliance on a Court of Appeal order, arguing that the commission had misapplied the directive.
“INEC claimed to rely on a Court of Appeal order directing that status quo be maintained, but went ahead to unleash institutional banditry on the ADC by refusing to recognise communications from the party at this crucial stage,” he added.
The group also alleged a pattern of interference in opposition parties, citing developments in the Labour Party and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
“We have witnessed how INEC, in conjunction with a section of the judiciary and agents of the Tinubu government, emasculated the Labour Party and later destabilised the PDP as part of a contrived agenda to impose one-man rule on Nigeria,” he stated.
Similarly, in a statement from the Centre for Democratic Accountability, the group stated that the integrity of the electoral process must not only be upheld but seen to be upheld.
“Nigerians must not be confronted with a pseudo-choice in 2027”, part of the statement read.
Nigerians must reject one-party dominance – Adeoye
Adelaja Adeoye, a leading PDP Lagos State governorship aspirant, has called on Nigerians to firmly oppose any drift toward a one-party state, which he says is being subtly advanced by elements within the ruling party.
Adeoye, a real estate mogul, said that the movement of opposition politicians into the ADC would reshape opposition dynamics ahead of the 2027 general election, but that some political actors were not happy.
He emphasised that a vibrant multi-party system was essential to upholding the democratic principles envisioned by the nation’s founding fathers, ensuring genuine choice, accountability, and responsive governance.
“A multi-party system empowers Nigerians to choose their leaders without fear or favour. It (multi-party system) deepens the democratic ideals upon which our republic was founded. For this to work effectively, the INEC and the judiciary must remain impartial and professional in the discharge of their duties during the 2027 elections,” Adeoye said.
Adeoye warned that any attempt by the ruling government to deploy state institutions to suppress opposition voices would not only be unconstitutional, but would also provoke widespread resistance from the International community, Civil Society Organisations and citizens yearning for a better nation.
