The scramble to get inside Dangote refinery’s IPO

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Nigeria could no longer tolerate the frenzy in the capital market ahead of the much-anticipated Dangote initial public offering: flyers circulating across WhatsApp groups, digital banners promising guaranteed allocations, and stockbrokers opening investment accounts and collecting deposits from eager investors hoping to get in on what many expect to be Africa’s biggest listing.

On Tuesday, the SEC slammed the brakes on the early scramble for a planned stock listing that has been the talk of the town for months, calling it an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” and warning that no application for such an offer has been filed with or approved by the commission.

The Dangote refinery IPO has become one of the most closely watched potential listings on the continent, with investment bankers and brokers reporting growing demand and expecting an oversubscription.

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has been hinting at this moment for more than two years. In a 2024 interview with The Africa Report about the refinery’s dual listing plan, he said: “Listing also takes a lot of time. But I won’t be surprised if we list by the end of this year. We would like to give Nigerians, Africans, and other investors the opportunity to join in making this historic move.”

At a briefing in Lagos on 26 October 2025 — where Dangote announced plans to increase his refinery’s capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4m bpd within three years — he said the expansion would be partly funded by an IPO, adding that 10% of the refinery and petrochemicals complex would be listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), with international trading venues as a secondary option.

“We want the Dangote Refinery to be the golden stock of the exchange. We want this to be a national asset in every sense,” he said.

Dangote Industries Limited already has three listed companies in Lagos — Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar Refinery and NASCON Allied Industries — which together account for about 13% of the total market value of equities on the NGX.

‘A rarefied asset’

Samuel Sule, chief executive of Renaissance Capital Africa, says the scramble for the IPO reflects the refinery’s emergence as a major node in global fuel supply chains.

“It’s such a rarefied asset,” he tells The Africa Report. “That asset has shown its place not just in Nigeria or Africa, but in the world in these geopolitical times.”

In recent months, the facility has become “the largest jet fuel provider to the world”, he says, while also being “very integral to the diesel supply chain globally, as well as petrol across Africa”.

“There are not enough large-scale assets that are index-eligible in diversified fields on the Nigerian Stock Exchange,” Sule says, adding that the Dangote refinery listing would be “one of the first very large ones in a very long time”.

He notes that many refineries worldwide are ageing and less flexible, whereas Dangote’s is a newer, complex plant capable of optimising yields across products. “We think this is one of the more efficient refineries globally,” he says, citing scale, complexity and an expansion plan.

A Lagos-based analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, says the Dangote IPO could be “arguably the most significant and exciting listing Nigeria has ever seen”.

“In sheer size, it’s transformative — potentially increasing the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange by more than a third,” the analyst says.

A continent-wide frenzy

The $20bn Dangote refinery complex, which was over a decade in the making, began producing diesel and aviation fuel in January 2024 and petrol in September, selling into domestic demand and export markets. It has already reshaped Nigeria’s economy, slashing import bills and bolstering foreign exchange reserves.

When leaders of Africa’s most powerful stock exchanges — from Johannesburg to Abidjan, Accra to Nairobi — toured Dangote’s sprawling refinery, petrochemical, and fertiliser complex on 1 April, their visit reinforced expectations that the upcoming initial public offering will reverberate far beyond Nigeria.

[Dangote’s refinery is] a wonder of the world

The visit has been mirrored by a steady stream of global finance executives and institutional heavyweights pledging backing for the listing.

Sim Tshabalala, CEO of Africa’s largest lender, Standard Bank Group, stood at the site in early June, pledging his institution’s leading role in the listing and calling the complex “a wonder of the world”.

“As Dangote lists, there is an IPO coming up and we are a leading player in that process. There will be opportunities for financial advisory services and balance sheet support, and we stand ready to provide both,” he said.

Just weeks before, a high-powered delegation from South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation, manager of the $230bn Government Employees Pension Fund, toured the facilities. CEO Patrick Dlamini spoke of “strategic alignment” and deploying “long-term, patient capital” behind African industrial champions.

The leadership of FirstHoldCo, the parent of Nigeria’s oldest bank, also visited the complex last month, with its chair, Femi Otedola, publicly appealing to his friend, Dangote, for a $100m share allocation in the private placement ahead of the IPO.

A $1bn private placement sets the tone

In May, Dangote said the IPO would be done in September, about two months later than an earlier timeline he had shared in February.

“The IPO that we have right now, there’s quite a lot of demand, and that’s the reason why we’re trying to make sure that by September we’ll be out there in the market,” he said at the time.

He said a private placement had already drawn requests totalling $2bn. “We are not allocating the full amount requested, but the response reflects the confidence investors have in the refinery and in the future of African industrialisation,” the billionaire said.

The private placement ran during the first 10 days of June, with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE targeting $1.05bn at a $39.1bn valuation by offering 3bn new ordinary shares at $0.35 per share, according to a placement document.

Last month, the National Pension Commission (PenCom) relaxed its share-investment rules, allowing pension fund administrators to participate in the planned Dangote IPO.

The forbearance targets a rule that typically requires an operating track record of taxable profits in at least three of the prior five years, plus dividend or bonus share issuance in at least one of the prior five.

“In reaching its decision, the commission considered DPRP’s strategic importance, strong fundamentals, and wide-ranging economic benefits, and the growth potential,” PenCom said. It also cited the record of Dangote Industries Limited, the refinery’s majority shareholder.

RenCap chief Sule says the Dangote IPO will offer a blend of both a growth stock and a future dividend-yielding infrastructure play.

He notes that the refinery capacity has already been debottlenecked to around 700,000 bpd, and describes the plan to double it as “material growth to come”.

Retailers fear missing out

At Lagos-based CSL Stockbrokers and fintech Bamboo, the flood of inquiries from within and outside the country has been relentless.

Nigeria’s retail shareholders are mobilising, fearing institutional investors will swallow the offering whole.

The Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria warned last month that without a dedicated retail allocation, ordinary Nigerians could be shut out by pension fund administrators and institutional investors mobilising vast capital pools.

This isn’t just a Nigerian listing — there’s potential for cross-listings in South Africa and other African exchanges

“We have seen a lot of excitement from our users,” says Richmond Bassey, co-founder and CEO of digital investment platform Bamboo, which operates in Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa. He tells The Africa Report that questions have flooded their support lines and social media platforms from those countries and the diaspora.

Bamboo, he says, is working with Nigeria’s Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) to ensure the offer is available in-app on listing day, while expanding customer support and producing FAQs to manage expectations around allotment and timelines.

Diverging views on strategy

While the appetite is clear, market experts differ on the planned IPO’s final shape and strategic ambitions. A major point of discussion is the balance between a private placement and the public offer.

Gloria Fadipe, head of research at CSL Stockbrokers, believes intense private demand may shrink the public float. “I think the size of the offering will be quite small because they would certainly have raised a lot via the private placement,” she tells The Africa Report.

The prospect of cross-listings on other African exchanges or in global financial centres also splits opinion. The analyst sees clear strategic advantages in broadening the investor base across the continent. “This isn’t just a Nigerian listing — there’s potential for cross-listings in South Africa and other African exchanges, which will broaden investor participation,” the analyst says.

Fadipe is sceptical. “I’ve not seen any Nigerian company actually listing on other African Stock Exchanges, and I doubt that will happen,” she said.

The risk register

RenCap’s Sule says some of the risks investors will consider is “what happens with refinery margins over the next five to seven years, what happens with oil prices, and whether there’s going to be a global recession”.

For offshore investors, currency volatility in Nigeria has long been a deterrent.

“Offshore investors today have more comfort than in previous years,” the analyst says. “The Dangote story itself contributes positively to Nigeria’s forex stability. By substituting refined-product imports, the refinery has already reduced Nigeria’s import bill and improved the trade balance.” (The Africa Report)