Reform Without Relief: Tinubu’s 2027 Bid Under Threat as Hardship Fuels Populism

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ambitious economic reform programme is entering its most politically consequential phase, with the growing gap between improving macroeconomic indicators and worsening household experiences emerging as a major threat to his bid for a second term in 2027.

Since taking office in May 2023, Tinubu has pursued some of Nigeria’s most far-reaching economic reforms in decades, most notably the removal of petrol subsidies and the liberalisation of the foreign-exchange market.

The administration has argued that the measures were unavoidable, describing them as necessary steps to repair public finances, attract investment, strengthen government revenues and prevent the economy from sliding deeper into crisis.

Three years on, there are signs that some of those objectives are being achieved. Nigeria’s foreign-exchange position has improved, investor confidence has strengthened and inflation has begun to moderate from its previous highs. Moody’s recently revised Nigeria’s economic outlook from stable to positive, citing stronger economic resilience, improved foreign-exchange reserves and better-than-expected growth.

But the political problem for Tinubu is that macroeconomic recovery has not necessarily translated into relief for ordinary Nigerians.

For millions of households, the economy is measured not by foreign-exchange reserves or credit ratings but by the price of food, transport, electricity, rent and petrol.

Petrol prices, which were around N200 per litre before the subsidy was removed, are now above N1,200 in many parts of the country. The naira has also lost substantial value since the foreign-exchange reforms, while the cost of basic necessities has risen sharply.

That disconnect could become one of the defining issues of the 2027 presidential election.

The politics of economic pain

Tinubu’s challenge is essentially a race against time.

His government is asking Nigerians to endure present sacrifices in expectation of future prosperity. But elections are ultimately decided by voters who may judge an administration by what they experienced during its tenure rather than by what policymakers promise will happen later.

Recent reporting has highlighted the depth of the problem. Reuters reported that nearly 80 percent of Nigerians surveyed believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, with the cost of living and insecurity among the dominant concerns.

Al Jazeera similarly reported that the immediate costs of the reforms have been felt through higher food and transport prices and reduced purchasing power, creating a difficult political proposition for the government: convincing citizens to wait for benefits they have yet to feel.

This creates fertile ground for populist politics.

Opposition politicians can present themselves as offering immediate relief, even where their proposed policies could create new fiscal problems in the long term.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has already placed petrol subsidy at the centre of his political messaging, promising to restore it if elected in 2027. That has opened a new front in the battle over whether Nigerians should prioritise immediate affordability or long-term fiscal sustainability.

The subsidy question

The subsidy debate could become particularly powerful during the campaign.

For years, subsidised petrol helped keep transportation and other costs relatively low, even though it imposed a huge burden on government finances and was widely criticised for benefiting wealthier Nigerians and creating opportunities for corruption and arbitrage.

Tinubu’s decision to abolish it was therefore economically significant.

The problem is that removing a subsidy does not automatically make citizens feel better off. Unless the savings are visibly converted into better infrastructure, jobs, social protection, cheaper transportation and improved public services, voters may simply perceive subsidy removal as an increase in the cost of living.

This is where the opposition’s populist argument becomes politically attractive: the government may be right about the economics, but Nigerians are asking whether they can survive the transition.

Tinubu’s defence

The administration maintains that the reforms have prevented a deeper economic crisis and are beginning to establish the foundation for sustainable growth.

Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele recently argued that the reforms helped avert economic collapse, strengthened public finances and foreign reserves, and improved investor confidence.

Tinubu himself has acknowledged that Nigerians continue to experience hardship.

In his June 2026 Democracy Day address, the President said the next phase of his administration would focus on ensuring that the benefits of economic reforms reach ordinary citizens, stressing that “democracy must be felt in the pocket.”

That acknowledgement is politically important.

It suggests the administration recognises that defending economic statistics alone will not be enough to secure another mandate.

Poverty and purchasing power

The scale of the challenge is substantial.

BusinessDay, citing World Bank estimates, reported that the number of Nigerians living below the national poverty line rose from approximately 125 million in 2023 to an estimated 143 million in 2026.

Even if the broader economy is stabilising, a recovery that does not improve household purchasing power could prove politically inadequate.

This is the central contradiction facing Tinubu: an economy can become more stable while citizens remain economically distressed.

And that distinction matters enormously during elections.

Insecurity adds another layer

Economic hardship is not the President’s only vulnerability.

Insecurity remains a major concern across several parts of Nigeria, with kidnapping, banditry and other forms of violence continuing to affect communities.

The recent mass kidnapping in Niger State, involving hundreds of people according to local accounts, has again drawn attention to the government’s struggle to protect citizens. Reuters reported that the incident exposed continuing security weaknesses in parts of the country.

For voters facing both economic insecurity and physical insecurity, the argument that reforms require patience may become increasingly difficult to sustain.

But Tinubu still has political advantages

Despite the growing dissatisfaction, writing off Tinubu’s chances would be premature.

The opposition remains divided, while the President has the advantages of incumbency, an established political structure and the resources of the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Africanews noted that although economic hardship is likely to dominate the election, divisions within the opposition could work in Tinubu’s favour.

That means the 2027 election may not simply become a referendum on Tinubu’s economic record.

It could instead become a three-way contest between economic performance, voter anger and opposition cohesion.

If the opposition remains fragmented, Tinubu could survive significant dissatisfaction.

If opposition forces successfully unite around a credible alternative, however, economic hardship could become a powerful instrument for mobilising voters against the incumbent.

The real test begins now

Tinubu’s first three years have been defined by reform.

His remaining political challenge is to demonstrate relief.

That means turning improved government revenues into visible improvements in everyday life: cheaper and more reliable transportation, increased food production, better electricity supply, more jobs, stronger social protection and greater security.

The administration’s argument that Nigeria needed painful reforms may ultimately be accepted by history.

But elections are not decided by history.

They are decided by voters.

And for Tinubu, the question ahead of 2027 is increasingly straightforward: will Nigerians feel the benefits of his reforms before they are asked to vote on them?

If the answer is yes, the President can argue that the pain was the price of recovery.

If the answer is no, the same reforms that economists describe as necessary could become the political ammunition that his opponents need.

In that sense, Tinubu’s greatest challenge before 2027 may not be defending the reforms themselves.

It may be convincing Nigerians that the sacrifice was worth it.(BusinessDay)