Atiku playing to the gallery, 15 northern states ‘ll collapse if subsidy returns – OAU prof

Professor Tunji Ogunyemi of Obafemi Awolowo University, OAU, in Ile-Ife, has explained how 15 states in the northern part of Nigeria will collapse if petroleum subsidy is returned as some politicians have been advocating.

He added the African Democratic Congress, ADC, presidential candidate’s position on subsidy was, “with due respect”, politics and playing to the gallery.

The don, a prominent economic historian, lawyer, public affairs analyst, further noted that only four states can survive without federal allocation.

Professor Ogunyemi made the points in a podcast – Open Forum 360, by Dare Adekanmbi.

According to him, “I think it is calamitous, to say the least, if we reverse the subsidy regime in Nigeria in favour of returning the subsidies.

“It will lead to four disabilities. The first is that there will be reduced accrual to the Federation Account.

“The Federation Account is the jugular of more than 30 states in the federation. Only about four states in Nigeria can survive without the Federation Account.

“So if you now say reduce the accrual from the federal account, I tell you more than about 15 states in the north will collapse. They will collapse within three months.

“The second is that states will return to a regime of incapacity to pay salaries, let alone pensions. That is consumption expenditure.

“You reduce the revenue in that respect, you will see a situation in which government will not be able to support its minimum expenditure, let alone go for capital expenditure.

“The fourth and the final one is that Nigeria will not be able to meet its debt obligations.”

On Atiku

On Atiku Abubakar (the African Democratic Congress, ADC, presidential candidate’s) position, Professor Ogunyemi said the former vice-president should be clearer about the implications of his policy proposal.

“I think it is playing to the gallery, with due respect to him. He should be a little less opaque about his policy.

“You don’t want to get political support through votes or more votes by wanting to cut the jugular of your country,” Ogunyemi said.

He listed Lagos, Delta and Rivers among states that could cope without the federal monthly allocations. But he mentioned Taraba as an example of a state that cannot survive without federal allocation.