2027: El-Rufai’s detention denies opposition fireworks and strategy

When former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai formally joined the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) in November 2025, he invoked the political machinery that swept Goodluck Jonathan from power in 2015 as a template for defeating President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

“By the grace of God, we are going to repeat what we did in 2015, when we got rid of the incompetent, thieving and corrupt PDP [People’s Democratic Party] administration,” he said.

Frequent confrontations from a fiery foe

From then on, his rhetoric against the government, delivered through both social and traditional media, became more vociferous and sustained, drawing him into frequent confrontations with the presidency.

A strategist who played a key role in Tinubu’s 2023 presidential project, he had declared there was no pathway for his reelection in 2027, having fallen out with the president and become bitter after being denied a ministerial appointment.

“Tinubu will place third in the 2027 election,” he said. “I have done my maths.”

But as the 2027 election campaigns gather pace, El-Rufai is behind bars and missing in action as the ADC puts finishing touches to its presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar’s campaign team.

His absence has removed from the opposition frontline a fiery, cerebral and eloquent politician known for his organisational ability, strategic calculations and knack for sound bites capable of unsettling opponents.

“We miss him,” Darius Kurah, an ADC spokesman and Kaduna assembly candidate, tells The Africa Report. “We miss him in terms of mobilisation, organisation and financial support.”

Multiple charges and prolonged remand

El-Rufai is on remand in the custody of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).

He faces four separate criminal trials: three corruption cases brought by the ICPC and a wiretapping case filed by the Department of State Services (DSS).

Following his arrest in February, he has spent more than 200 days in custody amid difficulties meeting stringent bail conditions. He was briefly released on compassionate grounds in March to mourn and bury his 96-year-old mother, who died amid his legal travails.

El-Rufai’s ordeal began with a failed attempt to arrest him at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja after he returned to the country from Egypt on 12 February.

A television interview he granted days later, casually revealing he had intelligence of his planned arrest through the wiretapping of the national security adviser Nuhu Ribadu’s phone, deepened his troubles.

The presidency framed the revelation as a national security threat, culminating in cybercrime charges filed against him by the DSS on 16 February.

On the same day, El-Rufai was detained by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) after honouring an invitation. Three days later, he obtained administrative bail, but as he left EFCC custody, he was arrested by ICPC operatives and subsequently arraigned in Kaduna on corruption charges.

While he was battling to secure bail, DSS operatives arrested him again as he left court on 1 April. He was later arraigned on alleged wiretapping charges on 23 April.

His wiretapping trial has progressed faster than the corruption cases, with the prosecution having closed its case and the court fixing 22 September for the hearing of El-Rufai’s no-case submission.

But with several cases running simultaneously, uncertainty is growing over whether he will be free to participate meaningfully in the 2027 campaign.

Political analyst Temidayo Akinsuyi says El-Rufai’s continued detention has removed one of the opposition’s most effective northern voices from the campaign trail.

“Campaigns have started and I don’t see El-Rufai coming out soon,” he says. “El-Rufai is a great orator and an influential figure in the North, so keeping him there, in detention, is a great advantage for the APC [ruling All Progressives Congress party].”

El-Rufai may still release statements from custody, Akinsuyi says, but “it won’t be as effective as speaking to the people directly, especially the northern masses”.

A topsy-turvy affair

Tinubu and El-Rufai’s political relationship has oscillated between collaboration and rivalry since the formation of the APC in 2013.

El-Rufai followed his political mentor, Muhammadu Buhari, from the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) into the APC and worked alongside Tinubu to secure Buhari’s election in 2015 and reelection in 2019.

As the Buhari administration wound down ahead of the 2023 election and El-Rufai prepared to leave office after two terms as Kaduna governor, he announced he was leaving politics and moving abroad to pursue further academic qualifications.

However, Tinubu persuaded him to stay and support his presidential bid.

“Make a promise, we won’t let you run away from this country,” Tinubu said, joking that he would not leave the podium until El-Rufai made the commitment. He did.

El-Rufai subsequently became a strong advocate for power to rotate to the South. He accompanied Tinubu to Chatham House in London during the campaign and opposed Buhari’s naira redesign policy, which was widely seen by Tinubu’s camp as an attempt to frustrate his presidential ambition.

He was subsequently appointed senior adviser on Policy, Strategy and Enforcement to Tinubu’s 2023 presidential campaign.

To many, the collaboration was surprising given El-Rufai’s previous posture as Tinubu’s rival. In 2020, he declared, “He is not my man,” while identifying Tinubu’s estranged ally, Rauf Aregbesola, as a friend instead.

In 2019, he also told another estranged Tinubu ally, Muiz Banire, that he had a blueprint that could be used to defeat the godfather of Lagos politics – a veiled reference to Tinubu. The pre-2023 newfound political alliance did not last.

The unravelling took place in August 2023 after the Senate rejected El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination, where he accused Tinubu of withdrawing through the back door to humiliate him.

He turned a vocal critic of the administration, thereafter, joining forces with other opposition figures to build an anti-Tinubu political force ahead of 2027.

A missing firebrand

Last September, as the ADC gained momentum, the police sealed its Kaduna office and brought El-Rufai and other party leaders for questioning. His current detention and court battles have now kept him out of circulation.

North East-based political scientist Cliff Stanley says his absence denies the opposition “the combination of political experience, strategic thinking, institutional knowledge, networks, policy understanding and organisational capacity” that he brings.

His value, Stanley adds, goes beyond his ability to attract headlines.

“El-Rufai understands government from the inside,” he says. “He has served at both federal and state levels, participated in major political realignments and developed relationships across Nigeria’s political establishment. His supporters also regard him as a politician capable of translating political ideas into organisational strategy.”

Pressure builds

El-Rufai’s family has framed his trials as political persecution and betrayal by Tinubu. The ADC and Atiku called him a prisoner of conscience, while his allies have sought US involvement through a lobbyist.

But the government has cast his troubles as purely judicial rather than political.

When El-Rufai’s mother died, Tinubu issued a condolence statement. Vice-President Kashim Shettima and APC national chairman Nentawe Yilwatda led separate party delegations to pay their condolences, while Nigeria security adviser Ribadu attended the funeral.

The northern elites have been silent. But as the 2027 campaigns formulate, that silence is beginning to break.

On Tuesday, the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) said it was beginning to see signs of religious bias in the case.

The council said it had hesitated because it “hitherto considered the prosecution as a standard judicial process”.

But recent developments, it said, had raised concerns “that strongly suggest an extraneous involvement of an underlying religious bias against the former governor”.

Similarly, the Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria called on the government to review El-Rufai’s continued detention, warning against arbitrary and political actions. (The Africa report)