Why Tinubu may win 2027 election – The Economist; ‘Forecast isn’t verdict,’ ADC reacts

The Economist has predicted that despite the economic woes besetting Nigeria and the people’s discontent, President Bola Tinubu may still win the forthcoming 2027 election.

However, reacting, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Presidential Campaign Council rejected The Economist’s report, noting that “A forecast is not a verdict.”

Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, made the party’s stand known in an article titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku”.

He said: “These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict.

“Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families.”

On the prediction that low voters’ turnout could favour Tinubu, Shaibu noted that the low participation recorded in the 2023 presidential election could be due to apathy, insecurity, distrust, logistical barriers or the belief that votes would not count.

Therefore, he said, it should not be interpreted as evidence that most Nigerians support an incumbent.

“Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters,” he added.

The Economist’s forecast

In its October 1 report, The Economist posited that worsening security crisis, the effects of economic reforms, and political challengers should work against the president’s re-election bid.

However, it noted that “On the face of it, Mr Tinubu’s cool is surprising.

“Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections.”

Another factor that The Economist said could work for President Tinubu is religion. Running on a Muslim-Muslim ticket could give him large votes in the North, it said.

Furthermore, the report added: “As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment.”

Another factor is that although many in the South-West are disappointed with the Tinubu administration, the fact that he is their son would count in the President’s favour.