Why Nigerians may choose Atiku over Tinubu, Obi in 2027

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the 2027 presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, will rank first among Nigerians who have contested the presidency the most times and failed on every attempt.

Mr Abubakar, 78, served as vice-president from 1999 to 2007 and has contested almost every presidential election cycle, losing each time.

Mr Abubakar will face familiar foes: President Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Peter Obi(Nigeria Democratic Congress).

Atiku’s upsides

Mr Abubakar is widely seen as an arrowhead against former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s third-term bid, a move that could have kept Mr Obasanjo in office if it had succeeded. For opposing the third-term agenda, Mr Abubakar has faced fierce opposition from his former boss, who is always out to undo him in every presidential election he contests.

Though his funding sources remain controversial, Mr Abubakar is the founder of the American University of Nigeria, Yola, the first American-style university in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the university creates jobs and promotes education, it also offers scholarships to some of the Chibok girls released from Boko Haram abduction.

Mr Abubakar maintains a friendly posture with the media, priding himself as a democrat who believes in press freedom. Though exposed for corruption and criticised in the media space, Mr Abubakar has not been involved in attacks against the press in his political foray.

The former vice president takes credit for headhunting a couple of talented officials who served with distinction under Mr Obasanjo’s government. They include Nasir el-Rufai, then of the Bureau of Public Enterprises; Nuhu Ribadu, then pioneer chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission; and Chukwuma Soludo.

Atiku’s low moments

Since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999, Mr Abubakar has moved from the Peoples Democratic Party to the Action Congress, back to the PDP, to the All Progressives Congress, back to the PDP, and now to the African Democratic Congress.

A U.S. Senate committee report in 2010 accused Mr Abubakar of transferring more than $40 million in “suspect funds” into the U.S. from offshore shell companies between 2000 and 2008. The report stated that at least $1.7 million of the funds traced to Mr Abubakar were bribes paid by German technology company Siemens. In 2008, the German company pleaded guilty to bribery charges and agreed to pay a $1.6 billion fine. Also, Mr Abubakar’s name featured prominently in a bribery and corruption scandal involving Mr Jefferson, an American lawmaker tried and jailed for corruption. Though the American lawmaker has been jailed, Mr Abubakar has denied wrongdoing, while the allegations of bribery involving him remain unresolved.

In the run-up to the 2023 presidential election, Mr Abubakar was caught on tape admitting involvement in a scheme that exploited federal contracting outlays for years. In the recording heard by Peoples Gazette, Mr Abubakar could be heard narrating how he took charge of establishing onshore shell businesses to serve as a conduit for cornering vast amounts from public works contracts for himself and former President Olusegun Obasanjo—designating some for onward distribution to political allies and organisations.

As the chair of the National Council on Privatisation under the Obasanjo administration, Mr Abubakar, who presided over the sale of public enterprises, has continually been criticised for favouring his allies and cronies with the privatisation and sale of public enterprises project.

Mr Abubakar’s vehement push to become president led him to oppose the PDP’s power-rotation arrangement. His emergence as the party’s flagbearer in 2019 and 2023 eventually sparked internal opposition that broke the party into two warring factions.