‘It’s not missing money’ — Finance ministry addresses Nigeria’s $12bn external accounts gap

The federal ministry of finance says Nigeria’s $12.4 billion negative balance of payments residual in the first half of 2026 does not mean money is missing or oil earnings have been withheld.

In a statement issued on Tuesday and signed by Maryann Duke, the senior special assistant, communications and press secretary, the ministry said reports misrepresented the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) by stating the $12.4 billion residual as an unexplained gap in the country’s external accounts.

The ministry said the World Bank described the figure as “net errors and omissions,” a standard balancing item used when data on a country’s external transactions do not fully reconcile.

“It does not mean money has gone missing, been stolen or been withheld. It is not an account or a sum held anywhere,” the ministry said.

The finance ministry said the World Bank suggested that the residual “likely” reflected unrepatriated oil proceeds only “in part,” while acknowledging that data gaps may also have contributed.

It said the report did not identify any specific amount, company or cargo linked to the figure, adding that reports wrongly implied that $12.4 billion in oil earnings had been lost or withheld.

The ministry also cited figures in the same World Bank report showing that Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $12 billion in the first half of 2026, while gross external reserves rose from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026.

“These facts were overshadowed by the media’s headline framing. An economy losing US$12 billion in six months would not be adding over US$8 billion to its reserves,” the statement reads.

The ministry explained that a country’s balance of payments records economic transactions between residents and the rest of the world through the current, capital and financial accounts.

It said the figures are compiled from separate sources, including customs records, oil liftings and banks, adding that reports showed “that data sources disagree, not why”.

The ministry said Nigeria had recorded a negative residual in seven of the past eight years, with World Bank data showing figures ranging from a positive $17 billion in 2020 to a negative $24.9 billion in 2023.

It also cited international examples: the United States recorded negative residuals of $138 billion in 2023 and $97 billion in 2025; the United Kingdom recorded a positive $23.6 billion in 2024; and Brazil recorded a negative $5.7 billion.

‘FACTORS BEHIND THE RESIDUAL’

The ministry identified under-recorded remittances, informal cross-border trade, delayed export payments and provisional data as possible contributors to the first-half 2026 figure.

It said an estimated $10 billion in remittances moves through informal channels or remains abroad annually, meaning such funds may not reach banks or foreign reserves.

The ministry added that imports and exports across land borders, as well as services such as education, healthcare and digital payments, may not be fully captured in official records.

On oil proceeds, the statement said cargoes are recorded when lifted, although payment may take between 30 and 90 days.

The ministry said oil companies and their partners may lawfully retain their share of proceeds abroad, while crude-for-loan cargoes may be used to repay lenders offshore.

“These are not leakages. They show up in the residual when the related foreign assets or debt repayments of the whole economy, not just government, are not fully recorded,” the ministry said.

According to the ministry, such transactions can contribute to the residual when related foreign assets or debt repayments across the entire economy are not fully recorded.

It said the figures were preliminary and could be revised as company and bank returns were received.

The ministry said it would continue working with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other relevant agencies to strengthen the recording of external transactions.

It urged commentators and media organisations to consult subject-matter experts on technical financial matters and avoid what it described as “hasty and invalid conclusions”. (TheCable)