El Niño projected to cause 31,400 deaths in Nigeria

A new report by the Climate Impact Lab has projected that Nigeria could record 31,400 additional deaths from extreme heat over the next six months as El Niño weather pattern intensifies.

The report estimates that the wider Sahel region of Africa could record 66,800 additional heat-related deaths, with nearly half expected in Nigeria.

The projections come as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warn that the current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength, raising the risks of extreme heat, droughts and flooding across vulnerable communities.

Speaking at a joint press conference on Wednesday, Celeste Saulo, WMO secretary-general, said the phenomenon could peak towards the end of 2026, with its effects continuing long after.

Saulo said the organisation’s latest global seasonal climate outlook projects that temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.

She said a powerful El Niño could disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns, bringing severe drought to some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, while increasing heat across large parts of the world.

Saulo urged governments and humanitarian organisations to use available forecasts and early-warning systems to prepare for the impacts and protect vulnerable populations.

She added that communities already affected by conflict, displacement and inadequate access to water, sanitation and healthcare could face additional humanitarian pressures.

EL NIÑO COULD WORSEN FOOD INSECURITY

Tom Fletcher, the UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, warned that the crisis could worsen existing food insecurity and economic pressures.

Fletcher said about 50 million people could face increased hunger, adding that the African Development Bank estimates the crisis could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion and reduce their gross domestic product by between one and two percent.

He said the UN had released more than $50 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 countries at the forefront of the crisis, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.

Fletcher called on governments, development banks and international financial institutions to provide funding before the impacts escalate, rather than wait until communities have suffered losses.

He said the next two weeks would be critical for preparedness efforts, including providing cash assistance to vulnerable households, helping farmers and herders protect crops and livestock, and moving essential supplies before floods cut off roads.

GLOBAL SOUTH COUNTRIES TO BE AFFECTED DISPROPORTIONATELY

The Climate Impact Lab report estimates that El Niño could cause 451,000 deaths from extreme heat during the first nine months of the weather phenomenon, from June to February.

It warns that the mortality burden will fall disproportionately on countries in the Global South.

Beyond Africa, the report projects 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 in Indonesia. India could record 15,800 additional deaths, while Brazil could see 13,300.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and economics professor at the University of Chicago, said the projections could help governments identify where emergency interventions would save the most lives.

The report recommends measures including early-warning systems, cooling centres and protections for outdoor workers to reduce heat-related deaths.

It also warns that the extreme temperatures associated with this year’s El Niño could offer a glimpse of conditions the world may experience in about 20 years as climate change intensifies.

Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report and research lead at the Climate Impact Lab, said immediate emergency measures could save lives, but governments must also invest in long-term adaptation to prevent extreme heat from becoming a recurring humanitarian emergency.

Saulo said El Niño could not be prevented, but its worst consequences could be reduced through timely action and coordinated preparedness.

SOARING TEMPERATURES IN NIGERIA

Nigeria could face heightened risks from extreme heat as an unusually strong El Niño develops, with rising temperatures adding to existing climate-related pressures on vulnerable communities.

In recent days, temperatures have soared to 41°C in places like Nguru, Yobe state, and 34°C in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).

The rising temperatures raise concerns about the potential health and livelihood impacts of prolonged heat, especially for people who work outdoors and communities with limited access to cooling facilities, reliable electricity and healthcare.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat in some regions while contributing to droughts or above-normal rainfall in others.

Although El Niño is a natural form of climate variability, human-induced climate change is raising global temperatures and supercharging the risks associated with extreme heat.

The combination can intensify the effects of an El Niño event, exposing more people to dangerous temperatures and compounding existing vulnerabilities.

For Nigeria, prolonged extreme heat could increase the risk of heat-related illnesses in a country where about 87.3 million people lack access to electricity.

It can also pile additional pressure on water supplies and electricity demand, threaten agricultural productivity and outdoor livelihoods. People who cannot afford cooling systems or whose work requires them to spend long hours outdoors may face increased risks.(TheCable)