Surging Staple Prices Signal Sharp Rise in Nigeria’s Food Inflation

Rising prices of essential food items across major Nigerian markets are raising concerns about a possible resurgence in food inflation, threatening to worsen the cost-of-living crisis facing millions of households.

A market survey published by BusinessDay on November 14, 2026, indicates that prices of key food staples increased sharply in October, suggesting that the recent moderation in inflation may not necessarily translate into sustained relief for consumers. 

The development is particularly concerning because food remains one of the biggest components of household expenditure in Nigeria, meaning any significant increase in the prices of staples directly affects the purchasing power of ordinary citizens.

According to market data, some of the steepest increases were recorded in onions, maize, rice and garri.

A 100kg bag of onions reportedly climbed from approximately ₦65,000 in September to ₦320,000 in October, representing an increase of nearly 392 per cent. A 100kg bag of maize also rose from ₦28,000 to ₦50,000, while a 50kg bag of foreign parboiled rice increased to approximately ₦72,000.

Garri, another major staple consumed by millions of Nigerians, also recorded significant increases. Yellow garri reportedly rose by 33.3 per cent to ₦24,000 per 60kg bag, while white garri reached approximately ₦21,000.

Food inflation showing signs of resistance

The rising market prices come against the backdrop of Nigeria’s September inflation figures, which presented a mixed picture.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that headline inflation declined from 15.39 per cent in August to 14.63 per cent in September 2026.

However, food inflation moved in the opposite direction, edging up slightly from 19.57 per cent to 19.59 per cent.

This suggests that the broader moderation in inflation has yet to translate into meaningful and consistent relief in food prices.

A separate Nairametrics survey of 67 food items across four major Lagos markets found that 31 items recorded price increases in October, compared with 17 in September. Only 20 items recorded price declines. 

What is driving the increases?

Several structural challenges continue to undermine food affordability in Nigeria.

High transportation costs, expensive agricultural inputs, insecurity in farming communities, supply disruptions and inadequate storage facilities remain significant obstacles to stable food prices.

Rising fuel and diesel costs also increase the expense of transporting agricultural produce from farming communities to urban markets.

Insecurity in parts of northern Nigeria, particularly in major agricultural-producing areas, continues to disrupt farming activities and the movement of food commodities.

A fresh challenge for the Tinubu administration

The latest developments present another challenge for President Bola Tinubu’s administration, which has repeatedly highlighted declining headline inflation as evidence of improving macroeconomic conditions.

However, for ordinary Nigerians, the most important economic indicator is increasingly becoming the cost of feeding their families.

A decline in the headline inflation rate does not necessarily mean that food prices are falling. It simply means that the pace of overall price increases has slowed.

If the latest increases in staple prices persist and spread across more markets, Nigeria could experience renewed upward pressure on food inflation, further eroding household purchasing power.

Ultimately, the success of the government’s economic reforms will be judged not only by improvements in inflation statistics but also by whether Nigerians can afford basic necessities without sacrificing other essential needs.