Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, has been building up his political profile with the backing of President Bola Tinubu for the past two years. But his feud with former-friend-turned-foe, Nasir El-Rufai, could reshape the political space.
Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser is no longer my friend, says former governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State, after comments the former made on a Nigerian television station this week. “Somebody wants to destroy my reputation. Why? Ribadu wants to be president in 2031. He has to eliminate every northerner that he thinks is on the radar,” he said.
The former governor’s outburst on Arise Television was the first time he admitted that all was not well between him and Ribadu. Although the National Security Adviser (NSA) swiftly asked the public to disregard the allegations levelled against him, he did not deny having presidential ambition.
“I want to put it on record that I have never discussed running for president in 2031 with anybody,” Ribadu said, adding that he was too busy helping President Bola Tinubu to succeed.
Presidential ambitions
But in a country where even a serving president doesn’t reveal his intention of reelection until election season due to the volatile nature of its political space, El-Rufai’s outburst has effectively put a target on Ribadu’s back, analysts say.
“Ribadu is a victim of the age-old wisdom that says the tallest poppy gets cut,” argues Farooq Kperogi, a professor at Kennesaw State University, Georgia.
He says Ribadu and Vice President Kashim Shettima are the most prominent people in the north whose elites have become habituated to being in power.
“Because there is a perception in the north that Ribadu is more ensconced in the political orbit of presidential power than the vice president, a lot more spite and toxicity is directed at Ribadu,” says Kperogi. He adds that every northern politician with presidential aspirations is wary of Ribadu, fearful of his perceived advantages, and is “strategising around that sentiment”.
In the eye of the storm
While serving as the head of the anti-corruption watchdog in the early 2000s, Ribadu had been accused of using his office to hound then-president Olusegun Obasanjo’s perceived enemies or cut down those who had bright political futures.
Now as NSA, the fears have become palpable in the corridors of power.
“Ribadu probably imagines the presidency will go back to the north after Tinubu and he will be in the right place at the right time,” says Abimbola Adelakun, a columnist and an associate professor at the University of Texas, Austin, who dismisses El-Rufai as being bitter.
This is not the first time that Ribadu’s rumoured presidential bid has become part of a national conversation.
Barely two weeks ago, Tigran Gambaryan, the head of financial crime at the cryptocurrency firm Binance, said on X that when he was detained by Nigerian officials last year, there were attempts to extort money from him. “Ribadu emphasised that he wanted billions in payouts to fund his future political ambition,” Gambarayan posted.
The Nigerian government rubbished the allegations and has retaliated by filing charges against Binance.
Ribadu continues to court controversy – recently, he told Canada to “go to hell” for denying Nigeria’s defence chief a visa, nearly sparking a diplomatic row.
Rising profile
Ribadu needs to be careful, warns columnist Jide Ojo. “The accusations against him continue to increase. He needs to have a rethink because he is just an appointee and could be sacked if he becomes a liability.”
To the politically discerning, Ribadu’s rumoured ambition is believable because of his history. In 2011, he contested the presidency with the support of Tinubu and lost. He defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2014 where he contested for governor of Adamawa State and lost. He returned to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2016 and contested again but was defeated at the primary in 2022.
Ribadu has remained close to Tinubu, accompanying him on Hajj and foreign trips. He also featured prominently in the president’s campaign – his loyalty gained him the NSA position.
Although his appointment was initially questioned because the position had earlier been the exclusive preserve of retired army officers, Ribadu used his rapport with the president to consolidate his power. Appointees who refused to fall in line were shown the door, including the head of Nigeria’s secret police, Yusuf Bichi.
“Ribadu has used his proximity to the president to gain the confidence of top generals and other appointees. Everyone lobbies him because, unlike the previous NSA, he has a great deal of access and influence,” an appointee of the president tells The Africa Report.
Strategy rethink
Multiple media reports say Ribadu has convinced Tinubu to withdraw El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination for security reasons. This was the genesis of their latest feud.
El-Rufai is fierce like Nyesom Wike. Such people need to be managed
El-Rufai accuses Ribadu of being behind the prosecution of some of his allies in court. Ribadu had also been accused of being an instigator of the Kano emirate tussle where Lamido Sanusi and Ado Bayero laid claim to the emirate stool. This has been debunked.
“If Ribadu indeed has aspirations, he needs to be careful and rethink his strategy. Doing a fine job as NSA and earning the admiration of Nigerians is a better strategy,” says commentator Ojo.
Ojo advised Tinubu to try as much as possible to manage El-Rufai who is still hurting from being dropped from the cabinet picks.
The advice, he says, is necessary especially since El-Rufai’s feud with Ribadu has pushed the former governor into the hands of the opposition to engage in merger talks in a bid to unseat Tinubu in the 2027 presidential elections.
“El-Rufai in the opposition is a danger to the APC ahead of 2027. El-Rufai is fierce like Nyesom Wike. Such people need to be managed,” he adds.
(The Africa Report)
