Obi’s followers bristled at a proposed presidential ticket placing the former Anambra state governor as running mate to Atiku Abubakar, quashing a seemingly done deal.
After nearly two years of negotiations, Nigeria’s former vice-president Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra state governor Peter Obi were on the verge of reaching an agreement to run on a joint ticket aimed at defeating President Bola Tinubu. However, Obi’s supporters, known as the Obidients, have made it clear that they will never accept a vice-presidential position for him, thereby stalling the negotiations.
According to insiders, the arrangement was expected to be straightforward: Atiku would emerge as the presidential candidate with an agreement to serve only one term in office, ending in 2027. He would then hand over support to Obi to contest for the presidency in 2031.
Indecisive Obi and the failed deal
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) had been selected as the special-purpose vehicle for this particular arrangement. Atiku’s lieutenants believed everything was proceeding as planned – until Obi’s army of supporters, known as the Obidients, condemned the plan across social media, television and radio.
When pressed to respond to the reports, Obi offered an ambiguous statement, saying he was focused solely on building a coalition against hunger and poverty, not on seizing power. Asked directly whether he would be working with Atiku, he replied: “You can make of the report what you want.”
Obidients don’t know much about politics. Politics is not about emotion and extremism, but about compromise
However, an associate of Atiku, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations, claimed that Obi’s indecisiveness was largely influenced by his supporters.
“Obidients lack experience when it comes to real politicking, and their behaviour has put Obi in a difficult position – he can hardly make decisions independently for fear of provoking their anger,” the associate said.
Obi remains the most credible and popular candidate among all contenders, and it makes no sense for him to be anyone’s running mate, according to activist Ndi Kato, who served as a spokesperson for Obi’s 2023 campaign.
“Obi should not be the one to deputise anybody,” she told The Africa Report.
A prominent campaigner for Obi with nearly three million followers on social media, Aisha Yesufu, has repeatedly stated that she will campaign against him if he agrees to be anyone’s running mate in the 2027 election.
When asked whether she still holds this position, Yesufu told The Africa Report that it is not Obi’s camp stalling the negotiations, but Atiku’s.
“I would say the Atiku camp is the one frustrating the coalition with their insistence that Peter Obi, who happens to be the better candidate, should be the running mate,” she said.
No coalition, no victory
There is a consensus that without a coalition of opposition forces, Tinubu will easily win the next election.
In 2023, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) had become increasingly unpopular due to President Muhammadu Buhari’s poor economic policies.
The APC and its candidate, Tinubu, were in a vulnerable position and poised to lose, but the opposition became fragmented just months before the election. Obi left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to join the Labour Party, while former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso joined the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Ultimately, Tinubu won the presidential election with just 36.61% of the vote – the slimmest margin of victory since 1999 – while Atiku and Obi secured 29% and 25% respectively.
I would say the Atiku camp is the one frustrating the coalition with their insistence that Peter Obi, who happens to be the better candidate, should be the running mate
Since the election, Atiku and Obi have explored the possibility of forming a partnership. The two previously ran on a joint ticket in 2019 and already have an existing working relationship, which Atiku believes he can leverage. However, discussions have yet to be concluded.
Obi and the messiah factor
Public relations expert and blogger Chukwudi Iwuchukwu says that after Obi stepped out of Atiku’s shadow, he was able to build his own support base who now see him as a messiah, making it difficult for him to step down for any other candidate.
Iwuchukwu argues that these supporters – mostly disenchanted youths – do not understand that politics requires compromise. They have branded all other politicians, including Atiku, as corrupt, which makes it difficult for them to embrace him.
“Obi will lose support among the Obidients if he decides to step down,” he says.
“To succeed, he will have to convince the leaders of the Obidient movement that if Tinubu wins again in 2027, there will be no chance for him to become president, as power is likely to return to the north in 2031,” he adds.
Corruption issue for Atiku
Atiku has previously been the subject of corruption allegations, which he has consistently denied. He is widely regarded as an experienced establishment politician.
He first contested the presidential election in 1993 and has since made six unsuccessful attempts. He will be 79 years old by the next election. There is a consensus among southern stakeholders that the presidency should return to the south in 2027, which effectively disqualifies Atiku, a core northern Muslim.
Obi will lose support among the Obidients if he decides to step down
Obi, on the other hand, will be 65 by the next election. He is a southerner from a marginalised region and is generally perceived to have a better reputation than Atiku, even though he has also faced allegations of financial impropriety – albeit of lesser gravity.
Columnist Jide Ojo told The Africa Report that Atiku is “an expired politician” who can no longer energise the electorate.
Others share that view. Analyst Majeed Dahiru adds that Obi’s most viable path to victory would be to run as the presidential candidate and select a strong northern running mate, such as former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, who has the capacity to deliver votes.
However El-Rufai has a frosty relationship with many of Obi’s supporters, who view him as a divisive figure.
“Obidients don’t know much about politics. Politics is not about emotion and extremism, but about compromise. Political groups should not be run like a cult,” said Deji Adeyanju, a lawyer and social critic.
He advised the opposition to form a merger, conduct a transparent primary, and then determine who becomes the running mate – suggesting that such a process could help ease tensions. (The Africa Report)
