This year was earmarked as the time to create a strong and unified opposition in Nigeria that would give the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) a run for their money. Barely four months in, however, things have fallen apart.
Veteran Nigerian politician Atiku Abubakar – the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate in the previous election – was leading the strategy of the planned coalition. He followed up his push by holding meetings across the country with several notable politicians including former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi.
With poverty on the rise due to President Bola Tinubu’s painful economic reforms – such as the removal of petrol subsidy and floating the currency – the opposition planned to transform public disillusionment into real votes.
Opposition unity derailed by multiple defections
With 12 out of the 36 governors in Nigeria already in its fold, all that the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) needed was to form a coalition with Obi and his Obidient movement to trounce Tinubu, who won the 2023 election with just 36.6% of the votes.
However, the opposition plan has fallen apart nine months before the election season. Not only have the PDP governors ruled out the possibility of a coalition, but some have finalised plans to either join the ruling APC party or enter into a strategic partnership with Tinubu.
Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State – a major stronghold of the PDP – was the first to announce his defection to the APC, ending the PDP’s 26-year rule of the oil-rich state. To add insult to injury, former governor Ifeanyi Okowa – Atiku’s running mate in 2023 – followed suit.
“Things are getting perilous, and the future looks so bleak for former vice president Abubakar’s coalition,” says Tunde Rahman, a media adviser to the president. “Indeed, the counting of PDP governors crossing over to APC has begun. Isn’t the Atiku coalition dead on arrival?”
Two-thirds of PDP leaders have left the party
In Akwa Ibom, another state that has been ruled by the PDP for the past 26 years, Governor Umo Enoannounced that he would be supporting Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Rivers State – a hitherto stronghold of the PDP – is firmly in Tinubu’s grip since the president declared a state of emergency and all elected officials were suspended.
In Adamawa State – where Atiku is from – Governor Ahmadu Fintiri has moved to the camp of Atiku’s nemesis, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria Nyesom Wike. Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang has also followed suit.
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has remained part of Wike’s camp while Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State is in talks with Tinubu’s camp as he seeks reelection next year.
Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, who doubles as the chairman of the PDP governors’ forum, has refused to see eye to eye with Atiku due to their longstanding feud.
This implies that only four governors in the PDP are currently fully committed to the party’s victory at the next poll. To add insult to injury, the PDP party organ continues to face internal friction as attempts to remove the acting national chairman, Umar Damagum, have been frustrated by various courts.
Labour pains among the Obidients
The Labour Party remains in disarray. The national chairman of the party, Julius Abure, has blocked all attempts by Obi to take charge of the party. This has caused Obi’s lieutenants like Valentine Ozigbo and Kenneth Okonkwo to walk away.
A nebulous Supreme Court judgment has given both sides the impetus to claim ownership of the party which has led to more confusion.
The party has lost most of its federal lawmakers and its sole governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, is being courted by the APC to enter into a strategic alliance with Tinubu.
Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), who came fourth in the previous presidential election and maintains a firm grip on Kano State, has also been in talks with Tinubu as evidenced by the defection of some of his lieutenants.
Kano, which has produced the largest number of voters in the past three elections, remains the most strategic state in the country.
Opposition in the federal parliament has also joined hands with the ruling party. Organised labour unions – renowned for holding the government’s feet to the fire – are seemingly moot in recent months, which has not gone unnoticed.
In former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo’s latest book, Nigeria: Past and Future, he writes about the unions. “Rather than negotiate in the interest of the workers, they do sabre-rattling and they are called into the room and money in large amounts is stuffed into their hands, and they keep quiet.” The unions denied these assertions.
Reelection confidence despite anger over hardship
With the opposition in disarray, Tinubu is confident of reelection despite the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, which led to widespread #Endbadgovernanceprotests last year.
Atiku is a loser again
“Potential allies, including former running mate Okowa and defunct CPC [party] members, are giving his leprous group a wide berth. Atiku is a loser again,” tweeted Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu’s spokesman.
However, a few leaders in the opposition are refusing to give up and allow Nigeria to descend into a one-party state.
“There must be a viable opposition to keep people’s hope alive and create credible alternatives to keep the government on its toes,” said former Senate president Bukola Saraki.
Too late for the opposition?
Lagos-based lawyer and analyst Deji Adeyanju says the time to organise has passed.
“Even if Atiku and Obi are on a joint ticket now, it’s too late. Tinubu will not lose an election” as he is in power, he says, adding that because of the ethno-religious nature of Nigeria’s politics, only a southerner who is limited to one term in office would be widely accepted by the electorate.
Political analyst Majid Dahiru disagrees, saying there is still time to turn the tide as Obi showed in the 2023 election that it was possible to start a new political movement seven months before the election and get over six million votes without the support of the political class.
“A coalition is still possible, but it must be with a clearly defined ideology. It should be a new political party that can offer clear alternative ideas,” says Dahiru, who adds that such a party could, for instance, promise to restore petrol subsidy, promote transparency and do things differently. (The Africa Report)
