Tinubu’s drive to consolidate power ahead of the 2027 polls is redrawing Nigeria’s political map and alienating loyalists in his own party.
As election season approaches, Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is riding high on a wave of high-profile defections from the opposition – a political windfall some analysts have dubbed an “embarrassment of riches”.
However, beneath the celebrations, tensions are beginning to simmer. Longstanding party members fear being sidelined, setting the stage for internal friction as newcomers compete for influence and rewards.
Ovie Omo-Agege’s ultimate ambition has been to become governor of the oil-rich Delta State. While serving as deputy president of the Senate, he emerged as the APC’s governorship candidate and campaigned tirelessly, committing substantial resources to his bid. However, he came second to Sheriff Oborevwori of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
After a long legal battle, Governor Oborevwori’s victory was upheld in court, while Omo-Agege turned his focus to his role as leader of the opposition in Delta State. He continued funding the APC and hoped to use this position as a springboard to launch his 2026 gubernatorial campaign.
Everyone is looking for a seat at the dining table. What people want is their share of the national cake
However, Omo-Agege’s plans have been upended by the defection of Governor Oborevwori and his entire political base to the APC. By party tradition, Governor Oborevwori is now regarded as the leader of the APC in the state and is expected to receive an automatic ticket to contest, leaving Omo-Agege and his supporters on the back foot.
“The consequence is that it will lead to an implosion and chaos,” says Professor Anthony Kila of the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies. “The ones [leaders] who have no gravitas will conform, but those who have gravitas will rebel – and this will lead to defections or internal sabotage.”
Internal contradictions in Delta
Delta is not the only state grappling with internal contradictions. In neighbouring Anambra State, where a governorship election is scheduled to take place, President Bola Tinubu, a member of the APC, has entered into a strategic partnership with Governor Charles Soludo of the opposition All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
Soludo has endorsed President Tinubu for re-election and, in return, expects Tinubu’s support in the November governorship poll. There is a snag, however. The APC already has a governorship candidate, Nicholas Ukachukwu, who is relying on the party’s full backing. Analysts say Tinubu’s deal with Soludo now leaves Ukachukwu exposed and undermines his candidacy.
The development has sparked disquiet within the APC ranks in Anambra State, where party loyalists say they feel abandoned. It suggests that those with conflicting aspirations are being sidelined in favour of more influential figures, regardless of party affiliation.
Insiders say the ultimate goal is for Tinubu to secure the presidential election, while political stability in individual states is considered secondary. Tinubu employed a similar strategy in Rivers State during the 2023 election, choosing to work with Wike instead of former governor Rotimi Amaechi, a member of his own party.
Emma Aziken, a veteran political journalist, told The Africa Report that such manoeuvres have become commonplace in Nigerian politics. “The most important thing is the party winning the presidential election, and so the president’s interest is ultimate,” he said, adding that Tinubu is attempting to build a stronger southern base in anticipation of a possible northern revolt.
Battle between APC and PDP
Rivers State, currently under emergency rule, exemplifies Nigeria’s deepening political contradictions. Former governor Nyesom Wike, still officially a member of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), now serves in President Tinubu’s cabinet as minister of the Federal Capital Territory, a role presented as part of efforts to “promote national unity”.
Although he insists he remains loyal to the PDP, Wike is one of Tinubu’s most prominent backers and is actively working to secure the president’s re-election.
In Rivers, Wike functions as both the leader of the PDP and, effectively, the person overseeing the APC’s affairs in the state – an arrangement engineered by Tinubu. This dual role has angered longstanding APC members, particularly Amaechi, who continues to resist Wike’s authority, and Tonye Cole, the party’s gubernatorial candidate in the last election.
With Wike officially recognised by President Tinubu as the political leader of Rivers State, some APC members, including Amaechi, have become some of Tinubu’s fiercest critics and are reportedly finalising plans to leave the party.
Akwa Ibom, also in the Niger Delta, is not immune to the region’s unfolding political anomalies. Governor Umo Eno of the PDP has publicly endorsed both Senate President Godswill Akpabio and President Tinubu for re-election and, in turn, has received their backing.
“There is nothing like a political party in 2027 in Akwa Ibom State again… For the office of the governor in 2027, all political parties have agreed to vote for Governor Umo Eno (of the PDP). Akwa Ibom has moved to vote for Tinubu (APC) and Akpabio for Senate,” said Akpabio.
The spectacle of cross-party endorsements has deepened the perception that ideology holds little sway in Nigerian politics. Political analyst Majeed Dahiru tells The Africa Report that the defections and blurring of partisan lines reflect a widespread belief: Nigerian politics is not driven by ideology but by how national resources are distributed.
The most important thing is the party winning the presidential election, and so the president’s interest is ultimate
He adds that because the ruling APC controls the country’s resources, disgruntled members are likely to conform – especially if their interests are protected “at the dining table”.
Dahiru says defection from the APC would go against the prevailing trend, given the opposition’s weakness. “I don’t see any implosion happening at the moment. Everyone is looking for a seat at the dining table. What people want is their share of the national cake,” he says, adding, “The weak opposition does not look like an attractive alternative”.
The Africa Report contacted the APC for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
(The Africa Report)
