Despite Naira Rebound, Tinubu Reforms….

— Oye, Ex-Organised Private Sector Chairman

Despite the recent rebound of the Naira, amid several efforts by the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration to drive economic prosperity, many Nigerians may not experience improved living conditions or expanded economic opportunities, according to Hon. Dele Kelvin Oye, the immediate past Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria and President of NACCIMA.

The Naira had strengthened in recent weeks, trading around ¦ 1,340/$ on the parallel market as of February 20, 2026, compared to lows beyond ¦ 1,600 recorded previously.

Vice-President Kashim Shettima recently suggested that the currency could have appreciated even further to N1, 000 per dollar under different intervention conditions.

But Oye, who is the Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), argued that the currency appreciation alone does not automatically translate into lower prices, more jobs, or reduced poverty.

“The naira’s rebound reflects real reform, a credible CBN, and Nigerian entrepreneurial grit”, Oye said in a position paper sent to Sunday Vanguard. “But fiscal dominance, huge deficits, debt service, and inefficient spending remain counterweights. “Without fiscal prudence, private-sector facilitation, and inclusive spending, appreciation will stay a market statistic, not a lived improvement for most Nigerians”.

Referencing Shettima’s recent description of the CBN’s latest intervention as “generous”, he noted: “The bank has kept a tight monetary stance, cleared almost all FX backlogs, and allowed licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) limited access ($150k USD weekly cap from 10th Feb 2026) to smooth liquidity. That predictability, raising/reducing rates when needed, avoiding ad-hoc controls, has anchored expectations and helped reserves recover to over $50 billion USD gross, the

highest in 13 years. Monetary policy looks disciplined”.

Inflation fight

The former OPS Chairman then said: “Here’s where the story gets sticky.

“Fiscal dominance is when government spending and borrowing overpower the central bank’s inflation fight, a tug-of-war between the Finance Ministry and the CBN, often ending in higher inflation or instability.

“Nigeria is living with that tension. The 2026 budget, titled ‘Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,’ is approximately ¦ 58.18–¦ 58.47 trillion ($37.7–$41.5 billion) with a deficit of ¦ 23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP).

“Debt service eats up a huge slice of revenue, and  actual receipts keep falling short of projections, even as Federation revenue rose from ¦ 16.8 trillion (2023) to ¦ 31.9 trillion (2024).

“Deficit finance and borrowing remain high, and most of the Sub-National spending leans toward unnecessary projects, new bus terminals, and government lodges, rather than income-generating assets.

“The result: inflation eases only slowly. “According to The National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation fell to 15.10% in January 2026 (down from 15.15% in December), but food pressures persist, squeezing households. “Fiscal dominance risks undermining the CBN’s credibility if unchecked.”

Oye continued: “Government rhetoric still leans on aggressive tax collection (‘hunting’).

“What businesses need is Trade Facilitation: faster NAFDAC and Standards Organisation licensing, fewer duplicative levies (the Oyedele Presidential Fiscal Committee aims to cut 60+ taxes to under 10), and trade-policy certainty.

“A hunting mindset undermines the private-sector dynamism the FX reform was meant to unleash.

Dangote’s prediction

“Aliko Dangote’s prediction that the Naira can hit N1,100/$ isn’t just talk; the refinery’s ramp up cuts fuel imports, saves FX, and anchors the optimism Vice President Shettima voiced.

“It’s a reminder that entrepreneurship, not only policy, drives real value.

“Dangote Refinery already produces aviation fuel (Jet A1), about 20 million litres daily plus naphtha, polypropylene (830 kt / yr now, expanding to 2.4 mt / yr), bitumen, liquefied petroleum gas, sulphur and bunker fuel, all from its 650,000-bpd plant.

“The refinery intends to boost polypropylene to 2.4 million tonnes annually, add large scale linear alkylbenzene for detergents and base oil lubricants, and expand overall capacity to 1.4 million bpd, which will multiply those by product volumes.

“These outputs feed other sectors: Jet A1 cuts airline fuel imports and costs, naphtha and polypropylene supply local plastics, textiles, packaging and pharmaceutical manufacturers, bitumen supports road construction, LPG provides clean cooking fuel, and sulphur and LAB feed fertiliser and detergent production, collectively reducing import bills, creating jobs and spurring industrial growth.”

Immediate action

For government immediate action, Oye advised fiscal discipline, spending efficiency, social cushioning, and improved business environment, among other measures.

He said the Federal Government must “curb borrowing, put a cap on local public borrowings and use the improved allocations for FAAC to pay back down part of local previous borrowings/ bonds (these will force commercial banks interest rates to crash and stimulate private sector access to reasonably priced capital), publish project appraisals, and the Sub-nationals should to link allocations/IGR revenues to revenue-yielding  investments.

“Shift from consumption (new houses) to power, feeder roads, and storage that stimulate private capital and lift private-sector productivity. “Domicile the single-window trade system in NIPC, enforce licensing timelines (NAFDAC, SON), and reduce overlapping and unnecessary regulatory compliance to protect investors.

“Expand targeted cash transfers and food logistics before current reforms mature.  Invest in early-childhood health, education, and vocational training. “The World Bank warns that productivity losses today lock in poverty tomorrow. Macro stability hasn’t reached kitchens.

“The World Bank’s October 2025 update puts 139 million Nigerians in poverty, up from 87 million in 2023, and warns that without mass employment sectors and safety nets, reform durability and political stability are at risk.”

On other factors driving appreciation, Oye further noted, “Bitcoin as a hedge. There’s an observable inverse link: when the Naira weakens, crypto demand spikes as households hedge. The recent naira strength coincides with calmer Bitcoin inflows, easing pressure on FX demand.

“Naira-for-petrol in ECOWAS. Discussions to invoice petrol sales in Naira across the sub-region would lift demand for the currency and deepen its role as a regional unit of exchange.

“Policy coordination gap. Nigeria’s fiscal/monetary settings still run partly in isolation. Better alignment with ECOWAS convergence goals, AfCFTA trade facilitation, and WTO rules, and a shared response to global trade uncertainty from  U.S. policy swings, is critical.

“Export-price mismatch. The sudden appreciation of the Naira hurts non-oil exports: cocoa farmers report local prices above world benchmarks, squeezing margins and discouraging rural incomes.

“Velocity of money & inclusivity. Governments need to pump up investments in infrastructure, schools, and sports centres in rural communities to speed up money circulation where multipliers are high. If money velocity rises only in Lagos/Abuja and other major cities, earnings recycle into luxury real estate, pricing out residents and widening the poverty gap. Growth must circulate, not pool.”(Vanguard)