Nigerian petrol importers squeezed further on licence freeze as Dangote dominates

The battle for survival among Nigeria’s traditional fuel importers has intensified following the non-issuance of petrol import licences for the first quarter of 2026 as Dangote’s refinery ramps up petrol supply.

Earlier this week, local media reported that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) had stopped issuing permits for petrol imports – a move widely seen as a victory for Dangote, whose 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery has quickly replaced imports since beginning operations in early 2024.

Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) provides that licences to import “product shortfalls” may be assigned to companies with active local refining licences or a proven track record in crude and products trading.

Importers argue that the law is being selectively applied to entrench Dangote’s dominance.

NMDPRA data released on Tuesday show Dangote refinery supply accounted for 36.6 million litres out of the country’s daily petrol consumption of 56.9 million litres in February, compared to 40.1 million litres in January, when consumption stood at 60.2 million litres.

Imports collapsed from a high of 52.1 million litres per day (lpd) in November to 3 million lpd in February, while Dangote’s supply jumped more than 87% from 19.5 million lpd.

Regulator says ‘no priority need’

Speaking to The Africa Report on Thursday, NMDPRA spokesman George Ene‑Ita said “petrol import licences have ‘not been paused’ per se”.

“What’s happening is that domestic supply for now has met national daily requirements and therefore, there’s no priority need to issue import licences for petrol at the moment,” he says.

There are powerful interests in the oil sector… The downstream sector must not be destroyed by personal interests. A trader should never be a regulator

He adds that licences for other products such as diesel, liquefied petroleum gas and base oil are still being issued.

“Licences for petrol imports would be issued anytime the regulator decides that domestic output would not meet national requirements,” Ene-Ita adds.

The stance marks a reversal from December, when Ene‑Ita told The Africa Report that imports remained “imperative” to cover gaps left by inadequate local supply.

“Their own numbers still show there was a shortfall in February,” a major player in the import business, who requested anonymity, says. “Consumption in February was 56 million litres and Dangote supplied 36 million litres.”

The importer contested the NMDPRA’s supply adequacy claims, arguing that the 20-million-litre gap was covered by a glut of imports late last year that forced Dangote to slash prices in December.

“I have built many stations and a supply chain depot… You don’t give me a licence to import. You say I must go and buy from Dangote. We can never be happy if somebody else is controlling our business,” he says. “In principle, we will always have a problem with a single supplier.”

Dangote vs the old guard

The regulatory shift comes after a public clash between Aliko Dangote and the then NMDPRA boss, Farouk Ahmed, late last year.

On 14 December, the billionaire accused the regulator of allowing “unethical” volumes of imports that were undermining local refining, calling the situation “economic sabotage”.

“There are powerful interests in the oil sector… The downstream sector must not be destroyed by personal interests. A trader should never be a regulator,” he said at a briefing.

Dangote went further, calling for “a proper investigation” of Ahmed, including over the latter’s spending on his children’s foreign education.

Three days later, the presidency announced Ahmed’s resignation and the appointment of Saidu Mohammed as his successor – a move widely interpreted as a response to Dangote’s allegations, even though the government has not confirmed any direct link.

In October, the government had approved a new 15% duty on imported fuels to encourage local refining.

However, importers warned that the levy would push pump prices higher and entrench a monopoly, and its implementation was postponed in November for further review in the first quarter of this year.

Before Dangote’s plant came onstream, Nigeria –despite being Africa’s biggest crude producer –relied almost entirely on imported refined products, mostly sourced from the Amsterdam‑Rotterdam‑Antwerp hub in Europe and brought in through offshore operations off Lomé, Togo.

I have built many stations and a supply chain depot… You don’t give me a licence to import. You say I must go and buy from Dangote. We can never be happy if somebody else is controlling our business

The country’s four state‑owned refineries were shut in 2019 after years of losses and under‑investment.

Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) acted as the sole importer of petrol, bringing in cargoes through its trading arm and reselling to marketers at below‑market prices under a costly subsidy regime that kept pump prices artificially low.

That system has unravelled since Dangote began large‑scale production in January 2024 and progressively expanded his product slate.

President Bola Tinubu’s petrol subsidies have been removed, the downstream market deregulated and imports have shrunk as the new refinery’s output grows.

Importers on the ropes

The market disruption has come at a high cost for traditional fuel marketers, who built their business models and balance sheets on importing products and feeding extensive depot and retail networks.

TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria, the downstream unit of the French major, swung to a loss of ₦17.18bn ($12.5m) in 2025 from a profit of ₦27.49bn a year earlier.

Nigeria’s oldest oil marketer Conoil saw profits plunge 77% to ₦2bn. Both are among a group of about six major marketers that for years dominated the market under the import regime.

Oando, which exited the retail segment in 2019 to concentrate on upstream and trading, has also experienced difficulties.

In October 2025, the company disclosed that it had halted trading in refined products, with no petrol cargoes sold in the first nine months.

Even NNPC’s own downstream arm, NNPC Retail, has been losing ground.

As Dangote increasingly supplies the domestic market and sells directly to distributors and large buyers, the state giant’s longstanding centrality in fuel supply has been eroded.

Under the old import‑based system, cargoes were discharged into privately owned coastal depots and then trucked by a web of logistics firms to tens of thousands of filling stations nationwide. That network of depot owners and independent marketers is now being squeezed.

To strengthen his control over the market and eliminate layers of middlemen, Dangote started distributing fuel directly to petrol stations and large end‑users in September 2025, using compressed natural gas‑powered trucks.

Industry players say this reduces logistics costs and allows the refinery to undercut competitors.

One marketer thriving under the new order is MRS Oil Nigeria. Controlled by Sayyu Dantata, a half‑brother of Dangote, MRS was the first major downstream company to secure a supply deal with the refinery.

Since then, its retail presence has grown rapidly, making it one of the main beneficiaries of the shake‑up. (The Africa Report)