2027: Abba Vs Gawuna Again?

The political scene in Kano State has once again lived up to its reputation for drama, uniqueness and unpredictability. Recent activities affecting major political actors in the state like former New Nigeria Political Party (NNPP) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former governor of the state, Abdullahi Musa Ganduje, their associates, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna and the governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf  have introduced new twists in the calculation for 2027.

In 2023,  Gawuna was the flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and was standing hand in hand with the then Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.

On the other side,  Kabir Yusuf rode on the back of Kwankwaso’s and the Kwankwasiyya movement to clinch the governorship seat under the NNPP banner.

Three years later, the tables have turned. Gawuna has now defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), embracing Kwankwaso as his new ally while  Governor Yusuf has abandoned his mentor Kwankwaso and crossed into Ganduje’s APC. The reversal has left Kano’s political watchers both stunned and intrigued.

Although this is not new in Nigerian politics, analysts believe that it will reduce the 2027 for Kano Government House to what happened in 2023 where the two major contenders for the governorship seat in Kano were Kabir Yusuf and Gawuna.

The only difference would be the reversal of godfathers where Kwankwaso would now be standing with Gawuna, the very person he had fought in 2023 while Ganduje would probably be standing behind Kabir Yusuf who he also opposed in the last elections.

It is not certain if Gawuna would be given the ticket of his new party, the ADC, but all indices have shown that Yusuf may be given the APC ticket as it is said to be one of the agreements he entered with the leaders of the party before defecting.

Kwankwaso has for years carried on  as the single leading political figure in Kano with mass followership in Kano. His ability to bounce back to reckoning after eight years of losing the governorship seat in 2003 has made him to be respected in national politics.

He also showed strength when during the APC primaries ahead the 2015 elections, he was able to beat other strong aspirants like former vice president, Atiku Abubakar to come second after Muhammadu Buhari.

The NNPP victory in both the governorship and presidential elections in Kano in 2023 has increased his political rating.

But this time, if Gawuna gets the ADC ticket with the support of Kwankwaso, they would be standing against formidable opponents that include, former governor, Ganduje, Deputy Senate President, Jibrin Barau, a siting governor, Yusuf with a strong support from Abuja.

Analyst say this would place lots of resources in the kitty of the APC stalwarts while some say with the increase in membership of the ADC the party would also be able to mobilise resources for its campaigns.

Yusuf’s relationship with Kwankwaso became strained over governance style and party control. By early 2026, Abba formally joined APC, citing the need to “work with those who can deliver development to the state.”

Meanwhile, Gawuna, who had been serving as Chairman of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, resigned his position and announced his defection to ADC, citing his neglect and his supporters by the APC.

His move was not just a personal decision but a symbolic embrace of Kwankwaso, the very man he had opposed in 2023.

Why I dumped APC for ADC – Gawuna

At his formal registration ceremony into the ADC in his Gawuna ward in Nassarawa LGA on Tuesday, Gawuna told supporters that, “I have come to ADC not as a stranger but as a brother. Together with Kwankwaso, we will build a platform that truly serves the people of Kano. This is about service, not self.”

He also promised that he will never lie or betray Kwankwaso, as he allegedly said Governor Yusuf did.

“We entered this party for people and what we think is their best interest. All our stakeholders have welcomed this move and it is for everybody. God doesn’t make mistake. We pray for God to continue to guide us aright.

I commend and thank ADC leaders at both state and federal level for welcoming Kwankwaso yesterday. And thank God 24 hours after Kwankwaso has joined, I have followed him. I am sure many others will be on their way and our door will be open to all. Allah gives power to who He wants and When he wants 

Gawuna’s defection big blow,  – Kano APC

Bashir Ahmad, former aide to former President Muhammadu Buhari and an APC stalwart in Kano described Gawuna’s exit as a big blow to their party.

In a post on his verified Facebook page on Tuesday, Ahmad said, “Gawuna was a strong pillar in our party, losing him to an opposition party is a huge blow to our cause.

On his part, another APC stalwart and Executive Chairman of the Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas and Electric Vehicles (PiCNG & EV), Barrister Ismael Ahmed, said the defection is regrettable.

“Honestly I am not happy that HE (Gawuna) left us. Could we have avoided this?” he asked rhetorically.

He noted that the party must reflect on why such a strong figure felt compelled to leave as it approaches election season.

Gawuna was previously with us – Kwankwasiyya

Mansur Kurugu, Spokesperson II of the Kwankwasiyya movement, told Daily Trust that the new realignment was neither shocking nor destabilising for their camp, adding that Gawuna was once in Kwankwasiyya.

“The new realignment is not a surprise to us, because everybody would be happy to join a winning team except those that did not understand. We consider people that have betrayed our trust and that of our movement as people that do not understand how politics works in Nigeria.

“The return of His Excellency, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna is not a surprise to us, because he was already a member of Kwankwasiyya before, and now he just returned to where he was.”

He insisted that Gawuna’s entry into ADC was not simply a numbers’ game but a qualitative boost to the movement.

“We are not considering this as minus one, plus one. We are just seeing it as plus one. Abba moved out with some of the ruling class, but not with the voters. Gawuna is coming with people who trust him and believe in him, not just elites expecting appointments. That is why his addition gives more confidence to people that Kwankwasiyya remains an attractive platform.”

Efforts to hear from Governor Yusuf’s side has been abortive as call made to people close to him are mostly not reachable. Also, calls made to his Chief Press Secretary, Mustapha Muhammad, were neither answered nor returned as at the press time.

No permanent friend/enemy in politics – Prof Fage

Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a political scientist at Bayero University Kano (BUK), told Daily Trust that the unfolding drama in Kano is part of a wider Nigerian political tradition of shifting alliances.

“What you are seeing in Kano is not something new politically in Nigeria. It is a shifting of alliances, people with different views coming together because of personal and self-interest, and people who once belonged to the same association separating for the same reasons. Today’s friend will be tomorrow’s enemy. This is the trend here in Kano, just as it is happening across the Federation.”

He noted that defections by sitting governors to ruling parties have become common, and Kano’s new alignments fit into that pattern.

“With this new alliance, ADC may have a good show, depending on the candidates they build and the issues they raise. APC has already engendered some immunity from the electorate through its policies.

“So any party, whether ADC or another, that puts its house in order and builds strong candidates can make a good showing in 2027, provided there is a free and fair election,” Prof Fage added.

On the possibility of Gawuna clinching the ADC ticket to face Abba Yusuf under APC, Professor Fage cautioned against assumptions:

“It’s not a foregone conclusion that Gawuna will get the ticket. There are already strong forces within the party. Even Kwankwaso’s support is not automatic. Don’t forget, even Gwarzo, who was a deputy governor, resigned because of Kwankwaso. So it depends on how the party conducts its primaries. If they rely on godfatherism, it will not work well for them.”

Similarity with Edo 2019

In Edo State, during the 2016 governorship election, Senator Adams Oshiomhole, supported his political godson, former governor, Godwin Obaseki, of the All Progressive Congress (APC to defeat Paster Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the People’s Democratic (PDP).

Ize-Iyamu was a founding member of the All Progressive Congress in the state alongside Oshiomhole, but left the party in preparatory to the 2016 governorship election after falling out with Oshiomhole and decamped to the PDP to become the party governorship candidate.

But, Senator Oshiomhole fell out with former governor Obaseki in the build up to the 2019 governorship election and pitch tent with Pastor Ize-Iyamu, whom they fell out in 2016.

The fight between Oshiomhole and his political godson (Obaseki), culminate to his disqualification from contesting the 2019 APC governor primary, which was eventually won by Pastor Ize-Iyamu.

However, Obaseki decamped to the PDP and was handed the party ticket for the 2019 governorship election, which he eventually won by defeating Oshiomhole’s candidate (Ize-Iyamu).