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Why Nigeria Won’t Default On Debt Servicing Despite Revenue Shortfalls

L-R: Charles Egbunonwo, a Council Member of Association of Securities Dealing Houses of Nigeria (ASHON), representing Oluwaseun Afolabi, ASHON Chairman; Oluwaseun Afolabi, Head, Market Architecture, FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited; Dayo Obisan, Executive Commissioner Operations, the Securities and Exchange Commission representing Director-General, Lamido Yuguda Lamido; Chinyere Joel-Nwokeoma, CAMCAN Chairman, Patience Oniha, the Director-General, Debt Management Office, Irene Robinson-Ayanwale, Divisional Head, Business Support Services, Nigerian Exchange Limited and Oluropo Dada, 1st Vice President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers representing, Oluwole Adeosun, President at the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) 2022 annual conference.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) has expressed confidence in government’s capacity to service its mountain raft of debts despite grave shortfalls in revenue, saying that the debts are concessional and within the low threshold of debt to GDP ratio.

However, in view of grave revenue challenges, the government agency called for urgent measures to moderate further borrowings to stave off pressure on debt burden and sustainability.

Speaking at the annual workshop of the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) with the theme “Nigeria’s Public Debt and the Capital Market,” DMO Director General, Patience Oniha, explained that 60 percent of the government’s external debt is long term and the cost is below 3 percent per annum.

According to her, the ratio of Nigeria’s total Public Debt to GDP stood at 23.06 percent as of June 2022, which she said, is still within Nigeria’s self-imposed limit of 40 percent and the World Bank/IMF recommended limit of 55 percent for countries within Nigeria’s peer group and 70 percent for ECOWAS countries.

She admitted, however, that the ratio of Debt Service to Revenue is extremely high due to grave shortfalls in revenue, compounded by much dependence on crude oil earnings resulting in budget deficits over the past decades.

She noted that an extremely high ratio of debt service to revenue is an indication that urgent steps needed to be taken to boost nation’s revenue and enhance public debt sustainability.

Nigeria’s public debt stock has grown consistently over the past decades and even faster in recent years. Consequently, debt service has continued to grow.

She admitted that Nigeria’s low revenue base is compounded by dependence on crude oil which has resulted in budget deficits over the past decades.

She however said efforts at increasing non-oil revenue are yielding positive results.

“Dependence on borrowing and low revenue base is now threatening debt sustainability. With a low debt to GDP ratio, Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio would have been low if revenue was strong,” Oniha told capital market reporters.

She stressed the need for more efficient tax administration, plug revenue leakages, improves tax administration, and shore up non-oil revenue sources.

Revenue challenge, she said, remains one of the most critical fiscal policy issues currently threatening the nation’s debt sustainability, pointing out that outlook of both the local and international markets are becoming tighter with rising interest rate.
She, therefore, called on the authorities to urgently moderate new borrowings for its debt to remain sustainable, accelerate its revenue base to shore up non-oil revenue, and rationalize expenditure.

According to her, most countries around the world have placed more emphasis on taxation as a principal source of funding for the government while the reverse is the case in Nigeria.

Aside from taxation as a source of revenue generation, Oniha stated that borrowings must be tied to projects that would generate commensurate revenues to service loans used to finance the projects.

She also said that physical assets such as idle or under-utilised properties could be redeveloped for commercialisation to generate revenue.

Speaking on initiatives and activities for debt sustainability, Oniha said that Nigeria deploys debt management tools of the World Bank and IMF that enable debt sustainability.

She noted these tools include an annual Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) and a Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) every four years.

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