Has ECOWAS lost the plot on Niger?

 

Shortly after the 26 July coup in Niger, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) heads of state led by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu converged in Abuja where they gave the General Abdourahamane Tiani-led junta one week to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum or face sanctions, including a possible invasion.

The ultimatum was not only ignored but an ECOWAS delegation was denied audience by the junta.

The regional bloc subsequently put its standby force on high alert while military chiefs from current member states held several meetings on how best to engage. Three months later, however, there is no indication that the Tiani junta plans on leaving soon.

The failure of the regional bloc to take decisive action may have emboldened neighbouring Mali which has now postponed indefinitely its presidential poll previously scheduled for February.

Evil alliance 

Adding to ECOWAS’ pains is the decision of the military juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali to sign a defence pact similar to that of NATO. The agreement simply states that an attack on one is an attack on all.

Should the regional bloc decide to intervene in Niger militarily, it would not only be battling with Nigerien forces but those of two other African countries, meaning an all-out regional war.

This development, described as an “evil alliance” by an ECOWAS official, complicates matters for the regional bloc and sends a signal that intervening militarily in Niger would not be as easy as other military adventures like in Guinea Bissau in 1999 or The Gambia in 2017.

“I think the pact indeed deterred ECOWAS. Any attack on Niger could have triggered a regional war,” says Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a think tank.

Analysts say the defence agreement became necessary because if the regional body successfully topples the Nigerien junta, it would also be encouraged to repeat this in Burkina Faso and Mali. Hence the pact was done for the sake of regime protection and not for any altruistic reasons.

Weak ECOWAS

On the flip side, ECOWAS leaders have not shown such strong commitment. Of the 11 current member states, Cape Verde has kicked against the military option while only Nigeria, Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire have shown readiness to commit troops to the cause.

But Nigeria’s commitment to an invasion does not seem all-encompassing. In the 90s, Africa’s largest country spent $8bn on a military intervention in Liberia but it can hardly meet its foreign exchange needs at home at the moment as it faces one of its worst economic challenges yet.

Inflation currently stands at 26% and debt is at an all-time high. The removal of the petrol subsidyhas increased the cost of living and has gradually made the new Tinubu administration unpopular among Nigerians.

The refusal of Nigeria’s parliament to support a military intervention in Niger coupled with the northern Nigerian Muslim establishment’s outright disapproval of the idea of invading Niger have made it next to impossible for Tinubu to push through.

“Tinubu is the one who has managed to stop ECOWAS from being pushed into invading Niger. He knew that Nigerians were opposed to it and decided to apply the brakes. If not for him, by now, Senegalese, Ivorian and Nigerian troops would have been fighting in Niger,” former Nigerian foreign affairs minister Bolaji Akinyemi tells The Africa Report.

Akinyemi says Ivorian troops alone would have defeated Nigerien troops, especially with the assistance of France which would have provided initial logistical support and intelligence.

Ghana, the region’s second wealthiest country, is also not in a position to commit resources to war in Niger as it currently faces its worst economic crisis in decades, with inflation at nearly 40% and a cost-of-living crisis that sparked a three-day protest in September.

Africa’s largest gold producer has continually defaulted on the payment of its loans even as the size of its public debt has grown to nearly 90% of its GDP as its foreign reserves dry up.

Even so, a military intervention without the approval of the UN Security Council would have been illegal, says Sadiq Shehu, a former spokesman for the Nigerian Air Force. With Russia opposed to the military option, getting the approval of the UN Security Council seems farfetched.

French departure, US recognition

Another pyrrhic victory for Niger is the ongoing withdrawal of French forces from the landlocked country after weeks of grandstanding by President Emmanuel Macron.

The French had refused to recognise the junta and had expressed public support for all the sanctions imposed on Niger by ECOWAS, including threats of a military invasion. There had also been fear that French forces would provide logistics and intelligence support for ECOWAS troops in the event of an invasion.

With the departure of the French forces, the ECOWAS invasion now seemed more unlikely.

“They (junta) know that ECOWAS won’t be able to mount a military operation without help from some army units inside Niger and have dug in their heels. I don’t think the junta will accept opening any talks with ECOWAS anytime soon,” says Sahel expert Laessing.

But the US has taken a different approach to the situation by acknowledging that a coup has indeed taken place and agreeing to relate with Niger like any other government in order to “advance shared interests in West Africa”.

This concession by the US allows it to continue with its anti-terror operations in the Sahel with Niger as its base.

Algeria to the rescue?

With talks between ECOWAS and the Niger junta having broken down and the latter getting more legitimacy from the people, analysts say it is unlikely that the solution will come from within the regional bloc.

“I think ECOWAS’ best bet is that Algeria might mediate between Niger and them. They have good contacts in Niger though the junta also rejected their mediation. But I hope they might change their mind and accept the Algerian mediation,” says Sahel analyst Laessing.

Several ECOWAS officials who were approached for comment refused to speak on the matter.

At his last press conference, however, Omar Alieu Touray, the president of the ECOWAS Commission, asked the media to reduce conversations around a “military intervention” in Niger, adding that it was only a last resort as a diplomatic solution remained the primary focus of the regional bloc.

“There is currently no plan whatsoever to invade Niger. We have not been put on alert or mobilised or even begun any drills,” a soldier tells The Africa Report.

Niger is still facing sanctions, including the suspension of its electricity supply from Nigeria. The landlocked country, which depends on neighbouring Nigeria and Benin for transshipment, will continue to feel the heat of the sanctions and the regional bloc hopes this will force the junta back to the negotiation table.

But Nigeria’s border communities are also feeling the heat, a development which has forced the House of Representatives to call on the Nigerian government to re-open the border with Niger.

The federal lawmakers said the closure of the border had brought “indescribable hardship” to border communities and had led to an increase in smuggling and other criminal activities.

The resolution has now been sent to President Tinubu. All eyes are now on him to see what he does next.
(The Africa Report)