“The Nigeria of today is too bad. What we were buying at N200 before is N2,000 now… unemployment is escalating. I don’t want to go personal but the Sharia Council helped the Muslim-Muslim ticket to be successful. We campaigned and supported this government until it came to power, but we are suffering.”
Thus spoke the Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria, which played a key role in convincing Muslims to usher Tinubu into power.
The president swiftly invited them to the presidential villa to appeal for patience with his administration, amid a cost of living crisis that has pushed food inflation well over 30%.
Relocation of agencies
Meanwhile, key northern figures criticised President Tinubu over the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to relocate some departments to Lagos, where all commercial banks are headquartered. The CBN cited overcrowding and a need to reposition, but its explanations fell flat.
The following week, the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) announced plans to also move its headquarters to Lagos for improved efficiency and cost savings. This further angered northern leaders, who alleged Tinubu — a Lagos native — aimed to officially return the capital to Lagos.
The northern senators’ forum and prominent APC members like senate majority whip Ali Ndume rejected agencies’ planned move to Lagos as an attempt to weaken the north and enrich Tinubu’s home region.
Influential northern group Arewa Consultative Forum described it as a plot to impoverish the north while empowering Lagos, which already generates 34% of national income tax.
Amid escalating protests, the presidency denied allegations of designating Lagos as the new capital or of playing “dangerous politics” that pits north against south.
The president found an ally in former central bank governor and ousted Emir, Lamido Sanusi, who described the controversy as baseless.
Lopsided appointments
While President Tinubu scrambled to dispel this narrative, his perceived lopsided appointments heightened tensions.
Critics argue most of Tinubu’s key political appointees since taking office come from the southwest. He also stands accused of favouring officials from his days as Lagos governor from 1999-2007. His current finance minister Wale Edun was once Tinubu’s finance commissioner. CBN governor Yemi Cardoso also served in Tinubu’s Lagos cabinet, while chief of staff Femi Gbajabiamila is a longtime protégé. These three “Lagos boys” reputedly make up Tinubu’s kitchen cabinet.
Other key security and cabinet positions are also held by members of President Tinubu’s ethnic group, including the heads of the army, police, immigration, customs, ministers of blue economy, communications, interior, solid minerals, and the attorney general. The federal tax authority also has southwest leadership.
Meanwhile, Tinubu himself oversees the powerful oil and gas portfolio.
According to opposition politician Segun Sowunmi, these imbalanced appointments have eroded trust in Tinubu’s decisions outside the southwest. Earlier, controversial northern Islamic cleric Ahmad Gumi predicted in a sermon that the administration’s lopsidedness would cost it re-election.
“They are playing us. There is an agenda. All means of money and economic power have been hijacked by them, they are planning to deceive us for four years and get eight years. They will not, by God’s grace,” said Gumi.
Poverty and insecurity
For decades, northern Nigeria has shouldered the worst poverty and insecurity. Over the last 15 years, the region has battled terrorism and banditry that has killed over 350,000 and could claim another 800,000 lives by 2030 if left unchecked, according to the UNDP. These agrarian communities have seen agriculture undermined and unemployment surge amid the violence.
The insecurity has also forced numerous school closures and increased the number of children without access to education.
While these issues predate Tinubu’s administration, analysts say the north is unlikely to show him the same patience it afforded President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner who enjoyed a cult-like following there.
“Suddenly, northern leaders have found their voice – many stayed silent while Buhari floundered. What a northern president can get away with, a southern one cannot,” says activist Deji Adeyanju.
Recently, protests erupted in Minna, Niger state, over the rising cost of living. Prices are higher in the north since ports are concentrated in the south, and may climb further as the currency declines.
“Many northerners voted for Tinubu because of his Muslim running mate, but between mounting economic hardship and worsening violence, he is rapidly haemorrhaging support in both the north and south,” says commentator and opposition politician Conrad Utaan.
Votes at stake?
The north’s slightly larger voting population across more states has made the region critical in elections. In the last presidential polls, Tinubu only won big in his native southwest, while underperforming in the southeast and south-south. Thus the North provided 61% of his total votes at 5.3 million.
With campaigning set to start in two years, retaining northern support will be key if Tinubu seeks re-election.
Recent by-elections in core northern states like Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Jigawa indicate the ruling APC still faces an uphill battle in 2027. The party won Yobe East decisively but lost other races, barely scraping by in a few.
“The by-elections are just a minor reaction to the economic struggles facing voters. Many expected Tinubu to excel in the economy given his past success in Lagos, but conditions have deteriorated,” says former supporter Utaan.
However, political scientist Tunji Ajibade tells The Africa Report the president still has ample time for a turnaround, noting the north’s importance given its sheer voting power.
For example, Ajibade points out that by halting plans to invade Niger after objections from Muslim leaders, Tinubu demonstrated his understanding of the region’s electoral significance.
“Come 2027, there will likely still be a sense the south should retain power. Deep-pocketed northern APC power brokers can release funds as needed,” he says. Ajibade expects the lopsided appointment complaints to be addressed soon.
Ajibade, however, tells The Africa Report that the issue of security could be the deciding factor in the next poll.
“Tinubu still has three years. We cannot conclude that things will not improve. If insecurity reduces significantly, northerners will re-elect Tinubu,” he adds.
Adeyanju, however, says the result of the recent by-election should give Tinubu cause for concern: it sends a signal that the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains a threat.
