It feels like this Emirates era is heading towards a crossroads, with Arsenal in the middle of a high-stakes game. This will either be one of the greatest seasons in the club’s history – ending a 21-year wait for the Premier League title – or a campaign which ends amid a highly-charged post-season review into how they squandered their best chance to become champions in two decades.
For now, Arsenal are just about doing enough to keep the optimists on board the Arteta train. However, emotions are running high.
There have been moments this season when Arsenal have been an average performance or a defeat away from the first signs of a derailment. Each time it looks like that cliff edge is coming into view, they have responded, hit the brakes and reversed away – most recently with the north London derby win in midweek.
Now they need a series of statement performances and victories to convince the world they are title material. With respect, beating a tippy-tappy Tottenham Hotspur team which resembles an academy side is not one of them. Wednesday brought an important victory, but not an especially impressive one.
A win over Aston Villa this weekend, by contrast, will be more symbolic and consequential.
There are demons to banish against Villa. Unai Emery dented his former club’s title hopes last April, the 2-0 victory sucking the belief out of the home fans. Had Arsenal won that day, they would have won the title.
Ollie Watkins puts Aston Villa 2-0 up at Arsenal in April 2024.
This weekend feels especially significant for Liverpool and Arsenal. Liverpool kick off first, a successive away game raising the possibility of their lead reducing further as Arsenal await the outcome before playing Villa. Arne Slot has already missed opportunities to sap the confidence of his rivals because of the draws against Manchester United, especially, and then Nottingham Forest.
A nine-point Liverpool lead in December is currently a less-intimidating four points, albeit with a game in hand, with Arsenal’s supporters caught between a sense of frustration and enduring belief.
That does not disguise the reality that Arsenal are not the same team as the last two years. There is yet to be a performance that leaves you thinking they look like the next champions. The balance of the squad is not right.
That’s why so many are caught in this central zone wondering if the first 21 games are a sign of a team that needs a significant revamp, or whether in fact they have fought hard to stay in contention and build a foundation which leaves them just one or two deals from becoming the country’s outstanding team.
It is obvious where the frustration will be directed if they fall off the pace. Long-standing and justified concerns about a lack of firepower have not been addressed. Prioritising signing midfielder Mikel Merino ahead of another attacker last summer looks like a mistake. Merino is not a game-changer.
Everything we have seen in the first half of this campaign has reinforced arguments made in pre-season. I wrote a few months ago that Chelsea cannot win the title without signing a goalkeeper and centre-back. Their recent performances have exposed where they are short.
Arsenal cannot win the title without another attacker. That was true before Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus’s injuries. If they do not react before the end of this month it will be negligent because persisting with a strikeforce of Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli will not get the job done.
Until that situation is resolved, Arsenal’s hopes are based as much on the idea that Liverpool will drop back into the pack as get reeled in because of the form of those chasing them.
The longer that remains a possibility, the more Arteta is keeping criticism at bay. The first murmurings of a backlash followed the defeats in the home leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final to Newcastle United and defeat to ten-man Manchester United in the FA Cup. But Arteta has much credit in the bank.
There is also a valid view that going out of the FA Cup is a blessing in disguise, reducing the fixture schedule. It definitely worked in Arteta’s favour a year ago.
Perspectives may also be influenced by the fact Arsenal find themselves chasing Liverpool rather than City.
If today’s league table put Arsenal four points behind City, the consensus would be Arteta’s side are where they expect to be and have been for the past two years: on the shoulders of the champions and the most likely challengers. That would not be a welcome situation, but it would be more tolerable.
Arsenal came into this season with the idea that if they finish above City they would win the league.
Liverpool being top under a new manager is not following the presumed script. The longer that remains the case, the more questions will be asked about how and why Liverpool have gone past Arsenal. Even accounting for injuries to key players, if Arsenal finish behind a side that just lost its legendary manager and is yet to make a significant signing since falling away in 2023-24, the review of the season will not be favourable.
As anyone who has played the game will tell you, when judgments are made there is always a fine line between mitigating circumstances and excuses. History does not remember the latter.
Liverpool’s injury situation last season was horrendous – by far the worst of the title challengers – but the general and fair conclusion is they finished third behind two superior teams, not that it might have been different had Alisson Becker or Diogo Jota played more games, or if Mohamed Salah had not returned from the Africa Cup of Nations with a hamstring issue.
Arsenal’s injuries have caused inconsistency, but in previous seasons they had better fortune than others as their stars were rarely absent.
Arsenal have taken significant strides every year since Arteta became manager. They have improved their points tally in four successive Premier League seasons and are aiming to become the first team to do so for a fifth.
To continue that run they need 90 points this time. To put that into perspective, Arsenal require 15 wins and two draws from their remaining 17 fixtures to reach that target.
The bad news for them is I do not see them doing so.
The good news is Arsenal may not need that much to be champions. Even so, they are dicing with danger by hoping a backward step will precede making that giant final leap from second to first.
