In many ways the recent resignation of Hakeem Baba Ahmed as Political Adviser to Vice President Kashim Shettima confirms the worst kept political secret in the land: that the gulf existing between President Bola Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima has widened to the point of no return.
It is no longer a secret that President Tinubu does not trust nor have confidence in his Vice President. Indeed a presidency source told me that things have got so bad that the president never meets Shettima one-on-one. Vice-President Shettima is placed only on a ‘’need to know’’ basis on sensitive polices and even at that not all the details of such policies are disclosed to him. Memos from the Vice President and those of his staff are subjected to levels of vetting and watered down such that when they eventually land on the president’s desk for his attention, they are devoid of their essence and meaning. All Ministers and appointees of the presidency and the administration are forbidden from giving him detailed briefs on their tasks and for their own good they try to limit their contact and involvement with the VP to a cursory level.
The cold war between President Tinubu and his Vice so far not fully blown, has however prompted comparisons between the experiences of Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President under the immediate past administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and that of Shettima.
In culinary terms the difference in experience under their principals could be likened to the difference between Ikokore, the popular Ijebu delicacy which I am told the former Vice President being an Ijebu man relishes, and Burabisco, the favourite Kanuri dish which Shettima as a dyed-in-wool Kanuri man likes a lot. As the two dishes are made of different ingredients and are enjoyed by in different parts of the country, so also are the experiences of the two VPs under their bosses.
Although the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria recognises and ipso facto specifies roles for the Vice President in the functioning of the administration, in reality the VP’s relevance can only be subject to the disposition of the president.
For instance, although the constitution provides for the VP to chair the National Economic Council (NEC) made up of state governors, the president can work to make the council irrelevant. This is what happened when VP Shettima at the head of the NEC led the governors to present their informed views on the Tax Reform bill. We all knew that president Tinubu threw the bill at the VP and the governors’ faces and brusquely told them he preferred his own version of the bill which he was going to send to the National Assembly.
By contrast, Osinbajo as VP was in full charge of the NEC as its Chair and from that vantage point recommended and actively implemented economic and social programmes running to billions of naira.
Apart from not being allowed such powers under Tinubu, since his run-in with the president over the Tax Reform bill, Shettima has literarily had the door shut firmly against his face as far as economic and social matters which the constitution grants him.
Professor Osinbajo was the cerebral intellectual power house of the Buhari administration and his erudition and depth of knowledge provided the government with the much needed air of competence to cover up the lapses of some the officials of the government. Perhaps fully aware of this, president Buhari gave Osinbajo the full encouragement and thrust to be the face of the administration making speeches and representing him frequently at public and private occasions.
Osinbajo was given the latitude to choose his team which included a Special Adviser on Media and Political Affairs as well as other necessary staff who functioned as independently as possible without interference from the President’s office.
VP Shettima too was allowed his complement of aides. But the point of departure is that whereas VP Osinbajo’s aides Laolu Akande for Media and Babafemi Ojudu on political affairs functioned effectively in their positions, Stanley Nkwocha and Hakeem Baba Ahmed appointed in respective positions under VP Shettima’s office have hadly been heard. Indeed the resignation of Hakeem Baba Ahmed, former Federal Permanent Secretary and Secretary-General of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) was connected to the belittling role he had been subjected in the presidency. He was not given any schedule and befitting office. He also was not allowed unfettered access to the media. He could not engage the media on the VP’s political perspectives; he was virtually a political glorified desk officer in the VP office reduced to drinking tea and ‘’enjoying’’ the central air conditioner there. For someone who is known to be articulate, erudite and with such a vast and distinguished experience in politics and governance and who enjoys frequent media attention, restricting Hakeem Baba Ahmed’s visibility and interventions as he was in the Tinubu presidency was like taking a fish out of water. There was no way that Hakeem Baba Ahmed would take that sort of treatment lying low.
That VP Osinbajo was accorded his rightful place in the Buhari was due largely to the laissez faire disposition of president Buhari. Buhari was known to allow his appointees the latitude to work without too much interference in order to allow them deliver on the tasks assigned to them.
But president Tinubu is not only known as a micro-manager he also has an unapologetic disposition towards favouring people from his ethnic comfort zone to work with him. From what we have seen of him, president Tinubu clearly does not feel comfortable having people from other ethnic nationalities working too closely with him.
VP Shettima may not have committed any weighty official breaches of official protocol in the presidency, but president Tinubu’s in built paranoia and discomfort in the midst of people he considers as belonging outside of his bloodlines and his political and ethnic comfort zone is largely responsible for the short shrift being given to VP Shettima in the presidency.
Going forward president Tinubu clearly faces a dilemma on what to do with VP Shettima. He is obviously not enamoured of the VP and cannot be persuaded to retain him in the coming months. But the president knows distinctly that dropping the VP off the ticket presents a very delicate and dangerous political manoeuvre. It was with Shettima that he was able to navigate the difficult challenges of the 2023 presidential race and won. Removing Shettima now would amount to a tactical political miscalculation. Who to replace Shettima with that will give him the political traction with northern voters he desperately needs for re-election in 2027?
If he intends to keep the Muslim-Muslim ticket a host of names have been thrown into the equation; Nuhu Ribadu, Abdullahi Ganduje, Kwankwaso etc.
But anybody he chooses now will be a hard sell to northern voters. The mere fact of replacing Shettima with another figure will reinforce the feeling that Tinubu cannot be trusted to respect political agreements. And this could even rupture the ruling APC.
There are reports too that president Tinubu may change tack and replace Shettima with a northern Christian namely former Speaker Yakubu Dogara, former SGF Boss Mustapha, Senator Simon Lalong etc.
If Tinubu cannot be sure of a huge northern Christian votes tally to tip the scales in his favour this will amount to political suicide to say the least.
As Governor of Lagos state, Tinubu was able to whimsically change three deputies; Kofo Bucknor, Femi Pedro and Adeyemi Ogunleye without fear of political recriminations. As president he is now faced with three options all of which have potential consequences; he cannot retain Shettima because the gulf between them has become insurmountable; if he drops him and picks another Muslim he risks a rupture in the ruling party and if he decides to go for a northern Christian replacement he will most likely bring the house down.
As he sits presently in limbo under the Tinubu presidency, waiting to see how and where the dice rolls VP Shettima will be hoping for the best under the circumstances.
Ilyasu Gadu can be reached via [email protected] 08035355706 (Texts only)
