Hampered by internal crises in their respective parties, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Governor Peter Obi are in discussions with a new political platform as part of a broader strategy to unseat President Bola Tinubu in the next general election.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has strong links to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, announced that a consensus has been reached among key opposition figures to adopt the ADC as a special-purpose vehicle for the coalition ahead of the polls.
“I can categorically inform you that the African Democratic Congress is the coalition party in Nigeria. What remains is merely dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s,” said party leader Mani Ahmed at a news conference.
Even when Tinubu wasn’t in control of the central government, he never lost an election … only God can stop him at this point
An associate of Atiku also confirmed to The Africa Report that talks had indeed reached an advanced stage, although he noted that Atiku was still waiting to see whether the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), could resolve its internal conflict in the coming weeks.
“Atiku is still weighing his options along with Obi. Should the PDP collapse irretrievably, then the ADC will become the platform of choice,” he said.
PDP and Labour Party struggle with internal crises
The PDP, beset by internal wrangling for the past three years, is expected to hold a high-level meeting later this month to determine its future direction. Three factions currently dominate the party’s structure: Atiku’s camp; a rival bloc led by former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike (now a minister in Tinubu’s government), who has vowed to derail Atiku’s ambitions; and a third faction led by Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, who also harbours presidential aspirations.
Wike’s faction insists that the presidency must remain in the South until 2031, in line with the zoning principle — an informal gentleman’s agreement that ensures power rotates between North and South every eight years.
The competing interests among these three blocs have largely caused the crisis, which has worsened since 2023. The Labour Party, which came third in the last election, is also facing internal friction. National chairman Julius Abure has resisted all attempts by Obi to consolidate control over the party. This infighting has diminished the party’s momentum, with defections and suspensions — including of key Obi allies — weakening its base. Some of Obi’s lieutenants who remained in the party have been suspended by Abure for anti-party activities.
Tinubu consolidates power as opposition falters
While the opposition remains fractured, President Tinubu’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is consolidating power, strengthening his chances of re-election. In Delta State — governed by the PDP since 1999 — Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his deputy, and all elected officials have defected to the APC, including former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, who was Atiku’s running mate.
Atiku is still weighing his options along with Obi. Should the PDP collapse irretrievably, then the ADC will become the platform of choice
The defection was so significant that Vice-President Kashim Shettima described it as a “political tsunami of unimaginable proportions that has never happened in the history of the South-South and the history of Nigeria.”
Shortly after, Anambra State Governor Charles Soludo (of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA) entered into an alliance with Tinubu, while opposition senators in Kano State also joined the ruling party. Akwa Ibom State Governor Umo Eno (PDP) has already endorsed President Tinubu for re-election. Several other leaders have entered into strategic partnerships with Tinubu in a bid to secure their own political futures. Nevertheless, the PDP’s 11 governors have ruled out any merger or coalition to challenge Tinubu.
Atiku and Obi seek crisis-free platform in ADC
With their respective parties in disarray, Atiku and Obi are making last-ditch efforts to adopt a crisis-free political platform that could serve as a special-purpose vehicle.
Nigeria has 19 registered political parties, but only five govern states. The remaining 14 are often perceived as shell parties used by politicians for election purposes. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is one such party. Established in 2005, the ADC is considered a fringe party and has been led by Ralph Nwosu ever since. It has secured only a few legislative seats.
The party gained national attention in 2019 when former President Obasanjo adopted it as a coalition platform. However, it ultimately endorsed Atiku and Obi, who were on the joint PDP presidential ticket that year.
Despite being one of Nigeria’s oldest political parties, the ADC has remained relatively peaceful, which is why it has now positioned itself as the coalition’s preferred platform. An alternative option is the Social Democratic Party (SDP), recently joined by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai. However, insiders say the SDP’s internal turmoil makes it a less attractive option.
Will an Atiku-Obi alliance work?
Atiku, who first ran for president in 1993 and has contested five more times since, is regarded as a veteran of the political establishment but has struggled to energise younger voters. Obi, a southern Christian, enjoys strong support among youth and conservative Christian communities in the South, but lacks widespread appeal in the Muslim-majority North — a key factor in his 2023 loss.
Since the last election, there have been discussions between Atiku and Obi for Obi to run as vice presidential candidate under Atiku, who would serve a single term before handing over power. However, Obi’s supporters have rejected this proposal.
If the alliance holds, both men — and possibly others — are expected to compete in a presidential primary, which Atiku is likely to win. Should that happen, he would choose Obi as his running mate, reviving their 2019 ticket, this time under a new platform.
Can the coalition defeat Tinubu?
“Even when Tinubu wasn’t in control of the central government, he never lost an election,” says Busari Dauda, a senior lecturer at the University of Ibadan. “Now that he controls all the levers of power, it is next to impossible for them to stop him. Only God can stop him at this point.”
(The Africa Report)
