With the weakening of major opposition political parties in Nigeria, pundits say only a few options are left for the opposition parties to make meaningful impact at the next general elections.
With many concluding that each of the major opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Labour Party and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) is in bad shape, going into the race separately will not make impact.
Expectedly, talks on forming a coalition to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 presidential elections reached a crescendo this week.
Leaders of the major opposition parties in Nigeria, Tuesday night, hinted at using a common platform as a special purpose vehicle in the next presidential race.
The coalition, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, was formally announced on March 20.
There are indications that the opposition leaders have settled for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) though the arrangements are yet to be finalised.
A statement by Malam Salihu Lukman, a key member of the 2027 National Coalition explained on Wednesday that no decision has been reached on what party to join.
He said, “The truth is, negotiations among all the coalition leaders is progressing very well and final decisions about political platform for the 2027 election will be taken soon. Unfortunately, there appears to be some mischief makers promoting and planting stories in the media with the clear aim of sowing seeds of discord among coalition leaders. The public and the media should please disregard all these mischievous stories.
“Once negotiation is concluded, formal announcement will be made by the leaders of the coalition.”
With this development, the initial plan to use the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as vehicle for wresting the presidency from the APC, appears to have changed.
The development has propped up the question whether the top contenders for the 2027 presidency, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, may have agreed to go into an alliance which they couldn’t do in 2023.
Sources say the defection of the former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-rufai and the resignation of former adviser in the presidency, Hakeem Baba Ahmed, to join the opposition may have added verve to the opposition to form a coalition.
Atiku, El-rufai and Baba Ahmed were part of the 2014 coalition that resulted in the formation of the APC, which was able to wrest power from the PDP.
Analysts say it is expected that with their presence in the opposition, they might bring their experience and knowledge of how opposition politics works to probably re-enact the 2015 scenario.
The favourable conditions
Analysts say the current hardship in the country coupled with the level of insecurity, are enough grounds for a coalition to thrive, recalling that the same circumstances favoured the formation of the APC in 2013.
National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Party (CUPP), Chief Peter Ameh, believes the emerging coalition against President Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 elections would succeed.
He said what distinguishes the current coalition from others in the past and what would make it successful is because the purpose is different from the “power-grabbing tactics employed in the past”.
He said, “Unlike the APC’s calculated manoeuvring, this emerging coalition is rooted in the genuine desire for development, driven by the cries of the masses and the failures of the current administration.
“The challenges of uniting leaders and finding common ground have been overcome, paving the way for a new era of collaboration and collective action. The abysmal governance of the APC, particularly under President Tinubu’s leadership where the lower and the middle classes have been completely wiped out, has created a sense of urgency among Nigerians,” he said.
He said the widespread hardship and suffering experienced by the people have galvanised the leaders’ confidence in this coalition.
“Unlike the relatively favourable conditions during the Jonathan administration, Nigerians today are facing unprecedented difficulties,” Ameh said.
He said that this obvious contrast has created a fertile ground for the coalition to flourish and that as the masses continue to suffer, the coalition’s foundation grows stronger, fuelled by the people’s desire for a better future.
Also speaking, one of the conveners of the National Opposition Coalition Group, Dr Umar Ardo, said the coalition is doing fine and will surmount all the challenges.
While responding to our correspondent on the issue of which platform the coalition will use, he said, “First, I really don’t know exactly what platform they will decide on. You know, my own personal opinion is that we should register a new platform, where everybody will come in.
“Because from the little I have gone around and heard, many people in the larger and established political parties, they wouldn’t want to leave and enter a smaller party. Except, of course, if they are supporters of the presidential candidates and other gladiators that have moved to a smaller party.
“But there are thousands and thousands of independent people that have their own ambitions, have their own aspirations, and are not supportive of any of these people.
“They want to express it in a political platform free of control. So these ones, they are aspiring to have a new political party registered. And I think if the gladiators and everyone will come together and register a new political party, it will be more of a success than, you know, fusing into a smaller party”.
On how to resolve the problem of clashing ambitions, he said primary elections would decide that.
“I’m sure there are those who will step down for others. But also there may be others who may not want to step down for others. In that case, we’ll go to primaries. We have seen it in APC. They did not step down for one another. They went to primaries and Buhari emerged. Nobody stepped down for Tinubu; they went to primaries and he emerged.”
‘Govs no longer powerful’
On not having the support of governors, compared to the days that paved the way for the formation of APC when some governors defected alongside their supporters and financial war chest, he said, “they are now liabilities.”
According to him, “Right now the governors are at their lowest ebb. There is abject poverty. In fact, in northern Nigeria, we have gone beyond poverty to state of destitution. And it is basically seen as a result of poor governance at the state level and then the destruction of local government councils by governors.
“So, to have a governor in your coalition, in fact, as it is now, is a minus. Except if you are interested in him bringing the money of the state. So it is going to be Nigerians against the elected now. I have seen some governors moving into APC, the legislators going into APC. They are just wasting their time. Let all the governors, let all the legislators, let everybody move to APC.
“How many of them; are there more than 10,000? And they are going to face 250 million Nigerians. Nigerians are not with the establishment as it is today. So bringing governors is a disadvantage, rather than an advantage in such a coalition.”
Our correspondent recalled that in 2015, many sitting governors openly identified with the coalition. Seven governors from the PDP had to break out and form a coalition before five of them later joined forces to form the APC, a development which gave the party a huge boost.
But currently, no governor has staked his neck so far to say that he is in alliance with the forces trying to form a coalition.
This, according to analysts, is a big challenge as governors are usually the ones that bankroll the operations of such groups. Although Peter Obi made huge progress in 2023, without the support of governors, a political analyst who spoke to Weekend Trust, said such feat could only be achieved once in a politician’s life time.
With the absence of a visible governor and the defection of some opposition governors to the APC, the needed funds and grassroots structure for the coalition would be lacking.
But Kabir Mato, a professor of political science, believes otherwise.
He said the issue of governors’ support would not be a factor as Nigerians no longer follow governors sheepishly but decide on their own.
Professor Mato added that the successes of the coalition will be dependent primarily on the sincerity of the people.
“The coalition is likely to fail in the event that individual idiosyncrasies and aspirations are placed before the desire for attainment of national objectives. So, if those who are into the coalition or desirous of doing the coalition are sincere about it and will be doing it for the sake of Nigeria, for the sake of policy, for the sake of government and governance, then of course the issue of individual aspirations should not arise”, he said.
The time factor
There is also the issue of time. In his reaction, the National Chairman of the Action Alliance, Barr Kenneth Udeze, said any coalition that must be formed has to be one year before the next general election, according to the Electoral Act, 2022.
He expressed doubts about a coalition that the PDP would drive this time around because, according to him, the party does not keep to agreements on how best to execute an election.
“Any merger that is not arranged within this year can no longer work, except you can find someone whom people can rally around,” he said.
The hurdles aspirants must cross
Sources say the first major hurdle would be who will step down for who in the event that the opposition leaders come on one platform as both Atiku and Obi are bent on running for the presidency.
While Atiku, who has been vice president in the past and was sworn in twice, may not be eligible to be sworn in a third time for the same office, Obi feels he is the more popular candidate whose support base in the southern part of the country would give the coalition the geographical spread it needs to breast the tape.
A chieftain of the APC in Plateau State, Mr Yakubu Dati, when contacted, said the first hurdle for the coalition is that the leaders have presidential ambitions.
“The leaders of the coalition all have ambition of being president. There are people that are not ready to play second fiddle to anybody, so it is clear that it may be very difficult for them to come together,” he stated.
Unlike in 2015, however, a lot seems to be going well for the ruling party that many do not see the opposition making any headway.
Many sources that Weekend Trust spoke with conceded that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears shrewder as a politician to allow opposition forces to overwhelm him like Goodluck Jonathan did in 2015.
“You see the number of defections already and many politicians are not ready to stake their necks to do opposition due to what the fear might come to them,” a PDP chieftain confided in our correspondent.
No independent financier
Unlike 2015, when there were major financiers, the current coalition seems to be lacking in that regard.
There’s is the fear that whoever they may decide to pick as candidate could easily be induced by elements of the ruling party, just as there could be infiltration of the party by fifth columnists.
Also, Barr. Obioma Ezenwobodo said the major pitfalls in forming a new coalition are that of “lack of common ideological leaning of the different political blocs, lack of trust by the different groups, lack of time to penetrate the populace, and lack of finance to pull through their agenda.
“The coalition can work out as the current APC was nurtured through coalition if the major forces behind it can collapse their interests for common good,” he said.
Sincerity of purpose
Some analysts are sceptical of the reasons behind the coalition. A political scientist, who spoke to Weekend Trust, questioned the real reason for the merger. He wondered if those behind it are doing it just to grab power or for the cause of the common man. He said they will have to convince Nigerians about their motive to get their buy-in and support and that they must start doing that immediately.
Past coalitions
Inter-party alliances in Nigeria dates back to the colonial era when parties came together to beef up the number of seats at the parliament to give them a majority say on issues.
Parties in the First Republic entered into alliance in order to contest the 1964 federal election. The United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) being one of the two alliances consisted of the Northern People’s Element (NEPU) and the United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC). The other alliance known as the Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) consisted of the Northern People’s Congress (NPC), Nigeria Democratic Party (NNDP), Mid-western Democratic Front (MWDF) and the Niger-Delta Democratic Front (NDC).
In 1982, when the NPN was the then ruling party, opposition parties formed a coalition to challenge the ruling party but the effort did not go far.
Standing independently
There have been many instances where the opposition parties stood for elections without recourse to alliance or collaboration but failed woefully.
All the parties stood for elections in 2003, but could not make a headway even though Muhammadu Buhari of the then ANPP was very popular.
In 2007, and 2011, it was the same, though new parties were registered to join the race.
This was what led to pooling of resources together to form the APC for the 2015 elections.
The most successful coalition so far has been the APC, which was formed in the build up to the 2015 elections.
Then opposition parties comprising a faction of APGA ANPP, nPDP and ACN, all came together to form the APC, which went ahead and defeated an incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
That success has opened the eyes of the opposition to the danger of going it alone.
Since the inauguration of the current administration, the opposition has grown weaker by the day with each of the major parties ravaged by various forms of crises and their inability to resolve same.
The incessant defections to the APC, has further made many to lose confidence in the ability of the opposition to make headway.
Despite the dismissal by the APC, all eyes are on the opposition to see what they could make of their resolve to come together and challenge the ruling party in 2027.(Daily trust)
