…as coalition gathers momentum amid uncertainty
AT a private venue in Abuja last Tuesday night, top political figures: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Babachir Lawal, David Mark, and Salihu Lukman, met with other notable personalities to advance their bold plan: Remove President Bola Tinubu from power in the 2027 elections.
For traders struggling with low profits, drivers dodging potholes, teachers managing small salaries, and students facing an uncertain future, this political movement known as the National Opposition Coalition Group (NOCG), led by David Mark, offers either hope or another shaky promise.
Sources told Sunday Vanguard that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is the likely platform, though nothing has been officially announced. However, El-Rufai prefers the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Later this week, the coalition is likely to take a final decision. But given Nigeria’s history of failed coalitions, can this group succeed or will they fall apart like others before them?
Secret Pact
Picture a quiet location in Abuja, away from the usual city noise. Atiku, a long-time presidential hopeful who’s never won, sits beside Obi, the reformer inspiring many young Nigerians. El-Rufai, a strategic northern politician, is also there, along with Babachir Lawal, a skilled political player; David Mark, the respected coalition leader; and Salihu Lukman, a former APC national vice-chairman, who is now unhappy with Tinubu’s leadership. Other powerful allies present at the meeting support the mission: to remove Tinubu in 2027 and offer solutions to economic problems, joblessness, and insecurity.
While the ADC seems like the top choice, El-Rufai’s push for the SDP is said to have caused tension. With such strong personalities in the room, clashes are expected. Will their common goal keep them united or will their differences pull them apart?
History: A Pattern of Broken Coalitions
Politics in Nigeria often mirrors a crowded market stall; cooperation can bring success, but conflicts usually make things fall apart. From the First Republic to today, most coalitions started with hope but ended in disappointment.
First Republic: NPC-NCNC Alliance Breaks Down
After the 1959 elections, no party had a majority. The Northern People’s Congress (NPC), led by Sir Ahmadu Bello, teamed up with the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), led by Nnamdi Azikiwe. Tafawa Balewa became Prime Minister, and Azikiwe was made ceremonial President. Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group was in opposition. The alliance helped initially but was soon weakened by regional disagreements. Election violence, especially the ‘Wild-Wild West’ crisis, led to the 1966 military coup that ended civilian rule.
NNA-UPGA: Another Failed Alliance
By 1964, two rival groups emerged: the NPC-led Nigerian National Alliance (NNA) and the NCNC-AG’s United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA). The NNA’s win was followed by allegations of vote rigging, and UPGA’s boycott caused widespread violence. Neither group brought peace or unity, and another military takeover happened in 1966.
Second Republic: NPN’s Weak Partnerships
In 1979, Shehu Shagari’s National Party of Nigeria (NPN) made alliances with smaller parties to reflect national balance. Though they achieved some early success, the coalition later fell apart due to corruption and economic troubles. Shagari’s disputed 1983 re-election led to unrest and a coup by Muhammadu Buhari.
Third Republic: SDP-NRC Fails to Deliver
In the third republic, General Ibrahim Babangida introduced a two-party system made up of SDP and National Republican Convention (NRC). SDP’s Moshood Abiola won the 1993 election, seen as fair and credible. But the result was annulled, sparking protests and leading to Sani Abacha’s harsh regime.
APC Merger: A Rare Coalition Victory
After 1999, the PDP dominated until 2013 when several opposition parties merged to create the All Progressives Congress (APC). Their 2015 win with Buhari was Nigeria’s first successful opposition coalition. But by 2023, the APC was weakened by broken promises and internal conflict, though it remained in power.
CUPP: Another Failed Attempt
In 2019, the PDP-led Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) aimed to defeat Buhari but failed due to mistrust and poor organisation. Atiku’s loss led to the group’s collapse, and opposition parties went their separate ways.
The 2027 Plan: Learning From the Past
Now, the NOCG, backed by the League of Northern Democrats (LND) led by former Kano Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, wants to succeed where others failed. Though the APC’s 2015 win proves that coalitions can work, past failures are a warning. A final decision on a political platform is expected by Friday, May 30, 2025, and the stakes are high.
Who’s Involved and What They Plan
Led by David Mark, the NOCG parades Atiku (PDP), Obi (Labour Party), El-Rufai (SDP), Lawal, Mark, and Lukman among others. Committees led by Rotimi Amaechi and Liyel Imoke are looking into whether to choose the ADC, the SDP, or start a new party. The group wants to tap into public frustration over rising prices, insecurity, and poor governance but they’re also dealing with challenges like planned defections and leadership disagreements.
Atiku summed it up: “The coalition train has left the station. It will stop at multiple points to bring on board Nigerians from all walks of life.”
Leadership Struggles and Internal Tensions
There are rumours that Atiku wants to leave the PDP, citing problems within the party and the possibility of Goodluck Jonathan returning. Obi, currently fighting legal battles over the leadership of the LP, may also leave the party. El-Rufai left the APC in March and now supports the SDP. While Lawal calls for unity and Mark works to keep the peace, Lukman insists on a party that truly serves the people. Different goals and beliefs could cause conflict.
Voices of the Coalition
The architects and key leaders of the National Opposition Coalition Group (NOCG) have spoken with conviction, revealing a mix of ambition, strategy, and the looming spectre of past failures. Their voices give shape to the fragile pact that could define Nigeria’s political future.
I’m Championing People Over Power — Obi
Former Governor of Anambra State and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, positions himself as a principled reformer battling systemic failures. His message is clear: governance must serve the people.
He says, “My fight is not against individuals. Let me be clear: my fight is against bad governance. That’s where I draw the line. I am in coalition with anyone who is against hunger, poverty, and a broken system that fails our children.
“Today in Nigeria, fewer than 10% of citizens are covered by health insurance. That’s unacceptable. Every Nigerian should have access to basic healthcare. Our teachers, who educate our children, deserve proper pay, yet many go months without salaries. We talk about education, but the law mandates free basic education, and it’s not being implemented.
“In Anambra, I implemented free education and ensured teachers were paid on time. Why can’t we replicate that nationally? The coalition I belong to is one against poor health, against ignorance, against insecurity. It’s not about titles or positions.
“Politics, for me, is not a career. It’s a platform for service. I’m not in this to be someone—I’m in this to do something. And what I want to do is build a Nigeria that works for all, not just the few.”
We Must Forge a Unified Opposition —Babachir Lawal
A former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, is a tested coalition builder advocating for unity beyond political labels, warning that old structures like the PDP are beyond repair.
His words, “Atiku has been very active in these opposition unity talks. I’ve seen him at nearly every strategic meeting. He’s deeply invested in this process of forging a new, united political front.
“We’re not just hopping from one party to another. We’ve set up a technical committee of seasoned professionals, people who’ve been in the trenches of Nigerian politics, to analyse all potential platforms. The goal is to choose a structure we can strengthen for electoral victory.
“Now, let me say this bluntly: the PDP is a house plagued by an incurable virus. You can’t patch a building that’s collapsing at the foundation. No amount of antibiotics can cure what’s wrong with that party. It’s deeply dysfunctional.
“What we seek is not just a coalition of names, but a coalition of ideas and purpose. That’s why we’re considering either adopting a relatively clean platform like the ADC or registering a fresh party. The new Nigeria we envision can’t be built in a house that refuses to change its blueprint.”
We Are Rejecting APC’s Broken Legacy —Lukman
Salihu Lukman, former APC National Vice Chairman (Northwest), offers an insider’s rebuke of the party he once helped build. Disillusioned, he now demands structural transformation and a people-first platform. He said, “My disappointment with the APC is personal and profound. I was one of the believers, one of the hopefuls. But what we’ve seen under President Tinubu has been a betrayal of the very principles we fought for.
“We once imagined an APC that would restore public confidence, that would be transparent, accountable, and people-driven. Instead, we’ve got a party operating like a monarchy. The president runs it like an emperor, and the organs of the party are effectively dead.
“I’ve always said: if we continue like this, come 2027, Nigeria may not even have a viable candidate outside the presidency. That’s how dire things are. “Any political platform we choose must be overhauled completely; new leadership, new constitution, new soul. It must be a party run by Nigerians, not one that sees citizens as an inconvenience.
“This coalition must rise beyond elite negotiations. We need a genuine people-centred movement. That’s our only shot at rescuing the future.”
SDP’s Democratic Alternative —Adebayo
Adewole Adebayo, 2023 SDP presidential candidate, underscores his party’s democratic ethos while signalling openness to collaboration. His message is firm: no party should be owned by individuals.
He said, “There is no crisis in the SDP, none at all. What’s happening is that attention is shifting to us because we’ve remained consistent. We’re not a party of godfathers; we’re a party of ideas.
“I’ve heard talk of alliances and coalitions, and I’m open to cooperation, but it must be rooted in democratic values. In the SDP, if 11 members are assigned a constitutional duty, the majority decides. That’s how democracy should function.
“Let me be clear: neither I nor anyone else can hijack the SDP. It belongs to the Nigerian people. And if you want to join us, you’re welcome. But don’t come to control us; come to serve. “This country deserves better than the pestilence caused by the APC and the non-performing presidency of what some now call ‘Bamed Tinu.’ We, in the SDP, are ready to offer a credible, issue-based alternative in 2027. “Nigerians will be proud of what the SDP represents, a clean break from politics as usual.”
ADC Favoured, Not Confirmed
A credible source intimately involved with the coalition’s internal negotiations, reveals the behind-the-scenes consensus and the challenges of managing ambition.
“Yes, it’s true—the ADC has been quietly adopted as the coalition’s platform, though no one wants to announce it just yet. Everyone’s treading carefully. “But the real issue is ego management. Think of it like a polygamous family , every child of every wife must feel equally valued, no matter who came first. That’s the only way peace holds.
“Politicians have fragile egos, massive ones too. They all want to lead, all want control. If we don’t manage those egos with wisdom, we’ll end up with a coalition in name only.
“For now, the ADC appeals because it’s not heavily dominated by anyone. It offers room for negotiation, for new voices. But we’ll see how long the unity holds. This thing is a daily balancing act,” the source told Sunday Vanguard.
Unity Is Non-Negotiable —Dele Momodu
Renowned publisher and PDP loyalist Dele Momodu speaks with both optimism and caution, urging leaders to put aside egos for the nation’s sake. He said, “I’ve seen many coalitions come and go. What makes or breaks them is not strategy. It’s humility.
“Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, Lawal, they’re all heavyweights. But Nigeria is bigger than any of them. If they truly want change, they must unite, not just in press conferences but in purpose.
“The moment ego enters the room, the coalition is finished. Nigerians are yearning for something new—cheaper food, safer streets, honest leaders.
“But unity must be real, not cosmetic. If they can truly put country above self, they might just give Tinubu a run for his money. If not, it’s another wasted effort. And Nigerians won’t forgive them.”
Coalition Faces Uphill Battle —Fani-Kayode
However, a former Aviation Minister and APC stalwart, Fani-Kayode, dismisses the opposition effort as a dream doomed to repeat history.
He said, “Let’s stop pretending. Tinubu is not a man you outmanoeuvre easily; he’s a master of the political chessboard.
“Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, they’ve all tried before and failed. Now they want to join hands, but trust me, it’s all smoke. No fire. Tinubu’s political machine runs like clockwork, and none of them has the structure, the grassroots, or the staying power to beat him.
“Nigerians are smart. They see through these alliances of convenience. 2027? It’ll be déjà vu. They’ll squabble, fall apart, and Tinubu will cruise to victory again.”
Key Challenges Ahead
Court cases over party switching, ideological differences, and balancing regional interests are major issues. If Atiku leaves the PDP, he might lose support from loyal members. Obi leaving the Labour Party could weaken its influence. With Tinubu still in office and strong support in the APC, the NOCG must avoid past mistakes like those of the CUPP.
A Deal on the Edge
At the Tuesday meeting, the ADC was agreed upon as the most likely platform, but nothing was confirmed. El-Rufai’s push for the SDP is still being considered. Atiku asked to lead, Lawal called for compromise, Mark tried to unite everyone, and Lukman pushed for a grassroots approach. Leadership roles were discussed, and El-Rufai was given until June to make his case. While Shekarau and the LND are on board, resistance from PDP governors may cause problems.
Hope or Just Hype?
Mobilisation is ongoing, and final decisions expected by 30 May may determine the coalition’s future. Although the ADC is leading, Adebayo’s insistence on SDP independence could split the effort. Many Nigerians are hopeful about promises of cheaper living, more jobs, and security. But doubts remain, especially from APC supporters like Fani-Kayode.
What Comes Next: Victory or Collapse?
The NOCG’s plan is bold but risky. While the APC’s 2015 victory shows coalitions can work, past collapses are a reminder of what can go wrong. Lukman’s dream of a party run by the people gives hope, but ambition, defections, and leadership fights could ruin everything.
For ordinary Nigerians, 2027 might offer real relief; cheaper food, steady jobs, and safer streets. Whether Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, and others can deliver is the big question. They’re making their move. Now the countdown has begun. (Vanguard)
