Even before becoming president of Nigeria in May 2015, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), a former military head of state had distinguished himself as a political leader with unmatched followership.
Though the bulk of his followers were concentrated in the northern part of Nigeria, it could be said that he was in his time, the only politician who could poll a definite number of votes, which averaged 12 million, at the slightest instance.
With such mass appeal, he was able to establish a consciousness on the minds of the people that has left many wondering if another can take his place.
Elder statesman, Prof. Ango Abdullahi, says he does not see anyone assuming that role yet.
He told our correspondent in an interview that: “To answer that question, you must also look into history. Where were they? Were they not there as governors? One way or one state or the other and so on? Have they solved problems of their respective states? Or have they solved the problems of the North? They were virtually responsible for what we are in today in the sense that we are looking forward to having somebody better than the present president of the country.”
Analysts say it is normal for people to begin to ask such questions after the demise of a political leader more so as Nigeria had produced many icons that left vacuums after their demise.
During the 1st Republic, the Sardaunan Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello, was the torch bearer in the North, while Rt Hon. Nnamdi Azikiwe who started as nationalist with base in the entire South later fell back as champion of Eastern politics; Chief Obafemi Awolowo was at the helm of affairs in the West, while Joseph Tarka, controlled the Middle Belt region. Aminu Kano was known as the leader of the Talakawa in the North.
Those that believed in the political ideologies of these icons identified themselves with various labels such as “Awoists”, “Zikists”, or Sardauna and Aminu Kano followers.
With the death of these icons, the regions lost such central control, but the North, after that set, threw up leaders like Malam Adamu Ciroma; Umaru Shinkafi; Balarabe Musa; Theophilus Danjuma; Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Shehu Yar’adua, who after leaving the army created a huge political base, building formidable structures across geopolitical regions.
There were other highly respected leaders in the North whose popularity stemmed from other pursuits rather than pure politics like Prof. Jibril Aminu; Muhammad Uwais; Auwalu Yadudu; Prof. Ango Abdullahi and ABM Haruna.
As some of them have passed away, others in this category are not showing interest in running for any political office.
The entry of Buhari into politics, according to analysts, filled the gap of lack of central figure in the North to some extent. For the 22 years he became involved in partisan politics, the North had political direction.
But with his death, the North would for the first time in 22 years, be going into a major election without a political rallying point, while the rest of the country will have no ‘Buhari factor’ to contend with.
As northern politicians have realised that the Buhari factor offers a huge advantage in politics, despite the reservations in some quarters over his performance while in office, many cannot wait to step into his shoes with the hope they’ll be recognised and accorded equal fanatical affection and followership.
Those that want to be associated with him have started calling themselves the “Buharists”, hoping that the same goodwill the late president enjoyed would fall on them.
This tribe consist of northern political figures still active in politics and interested in contesting elections.
Current northern pollical leaders that can tilt the factors in their favour include, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; current Vice President Kashim Shettima, and former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-rufai. Others are; former governor of Kaduna State, Ahmed Makarfi; former governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal; Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abbas Tajudeen; Deputy Speaker of the Senate, Jibrin Barau and former governor of Nasarawa State, UmaruTanko Almakura.
While most of them are in the All Progressives Congress (APC), some of them have quit the party to find alliances in new political platforms.
Why identifying a successor is difficult
Unlike previous blocs that had an inbuilt hierarchy of succession, the Buhari situation is different as nobody has been groomed to step into his shoes.
In the Awo political family for instance, the then governor of Lagos State, Lateef Jakande, was openly hailed as the Baba Kekere, meaning he was the accepted second figure in the group.
The Zikist movement had Michael Okpara. Even the Yar’adua political family was clear about the role of Atiku Abubakar in the late General’s political family.
But among those that identify themselves as Buharists, none appears ready to give way to the other.
Worse still, most of them have political ambitions, making it difficult.
Former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, once stated that there’s nothing like elders in the North.
He had said, on the issue of elders, “There is nothing like elders, I am also an elder, I will be 63-years-old this year, so who are the elders in the North?”
Inside sources say with that, the cooperation needed to pick a leader will be difficult to come by as most of them are highly opinionated about their worth.
Former minister of Agriculture, Audu Ogbe, corroborated this saying, as he noted that many of those being named as potential successor to take over the structure of Buhari are qualified to step into the shoes.
“There are many of them with capacity, who, if they get there, would probably be able to do a good job because they’ve had some experience. So many like that are there. We don’t know them yet until they turn up,” he stated.
How Buhari’s power exit affected his camp
Shortly after leaving office on May 29, 2023, the bulk of the former President Buhari’s loyalists found themselves in a quandary.
A new APC government had taken over, but many of them that had worked with the former president did not know their fate as a lot had happened during the primary elections which pitted them in different camps.
During the primary, there were accusations and counter accusations over those who did not support Tinubu who emerged the party’s flagbearer. Those that found themselves in that category were not sure what to do and how they’d be treated.
The mention of Ahmad Lawan’s name as the APC preferred candidate in some quarters brought so many things into the mix with the likes of former governors Rotimi Amaechi, Yahaya Bello, and others finding it hard to fit into the new administration.
It did not take long before Tinubu reacted with the removal of Abdullahi Adamu, who had announced Ahmad Lawal as the preferred candidate of the APC.
Further to that, Apart from Festus Keyamo, Tinubu did not retain any other minister under Buhari and the likes of Abubakar Malami and Hadi Sirika, who were close to Buhari, were left in the lurch.
To make matters worse, El- Rufai, who enjoyed relative closeness to Buhari was also denied appointment after submitting himself for ministerial screening.
Weekend Trust learnt that from then, the bulk of the Buhari loyalists suspected that the new administration was trying to sideline them and began to take actions to address that. They join forces with others in oposition parties.
The first to move was El- Rufai, who defected to the Social Democratic Party.
They later tried to form a new political party following fears that other opposition parties had been infiltrated by agents of the ruling party.
When the task of getting a new political party registered became difficult, most of them settled in the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Battle for control of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)
Buhari’s death last Sunday has triggered fresh jostling within the bloc over who will fill the vacuum he left.
Prominent CPC figures are Buhari’s 2011 running mate; Pastor Tunde Bakare; former Nasarawa State governor, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura; and former Katsina State governor, Aminu Masari.
Others are; incumbent Katsina governor, Dr Dikko Radda; former APC National Secretary, Waziri Bulama; NDLEA Chairman, Brig. Gen. Buba Marwa (rtd); Director-General of the Confederation of APC Support Groups, Prof Muhammad Kailani; former Voice of Nigeria (VON) DG, Osita Okechukwu; Senator Abu Ibrahim and former Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Hon. Aliyu Adamu Farouk.
Also in the bloc are; Buhari’s former aide, Okoi Obono-Obla, Yusuf Salihu, Capt. Bala Jubrin, Uche Oferoh, Hon. Ayuba Bulama, and several members of the 7th National Assembly including Senator Ibrahim Musa, Hon. Sanusi Aliyu, Mohammed Tukur, Senator Ahmed Sani, Hon. Ibrahim Chachangi, Yusuf Bala, and Garuba Datti.
While Senator Abu Ibrahim earlier told Weekend Trust that the CPC bloc has ceased to exist after the merger that formed the APC, the intense jostling by some of its key figures to emerge as the bloc’s de facto leader following Buhari’s demise is on, it was gathered.
Some persons like former governor of Nasarwa State, Tanko Al-Makura and Prof. Muhammad Kailani, who leads a support group in the APC, have indicated interest in leading the CPC bloc.
He told our correspondent that,“I started with Buhari from the APP to the ANPP, to CPC, and finally APC. He told me to support this government before he left — and we did. We brought this government.”
The former Nasarawa State governor equally said he is the rightful leader of the bloc. Speaking through his aide, Ibraheem Hamza Muhammad — a member of the APC Independent Presidential Campaign Council in 2023 — Al-Makura said he enjoys broad support.
“Look at the recent press conference at Yar’adua Centre. Al-Makura was the leader, supported by Senator Abu Ibrahim, Gen Buba Marwa (rtd), Governor Dikko Radda, Chief Osita Okechukwu, Barrister Obla, and many others,” he said.
Similarly, Bauchi APC chieftain Labib Abdullahi Mahmood said, “Al-Makura was our only CPC governor. He held the party together when many wanted to leave. He met with Buhari and Tinubu in London, and Tinubu promised to compensate the bloc.”
Describing Al-Makura as a “silent hurricane”, Mahmood added: “He’s paid his dues since 1979.”
Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, chairman of the North Central APC Forum, told Weekend Trust that Al-Makura is automatically the CPC bloc leader.
“Even Buhari acknowledged him as the highest-ranking member. Others like Buba Galadima have since left. Al-Makura remains the most senior and most consistent,” he said.
Weekend Trust reports that Al-Makura had been holding CPC bloc meetings even before Buhari’s death.
On April 16, he led a press conference in Abuja, where the CPC bloc leaders reaffirmed support for President Tinubu and distanced themselves from opposition alliances.
On May 8, he again led the bloc to disown former Kaduna Governor El-Rufai and former AGF Abubakar Malami — both of whom have since joined the opposition coalition.
At the briefing, Al-Makura said: “We remain part and parcel of the APC family. We haven’t left and we won’t leave.”
But Malami, in a statement by his aide Muhammed Bello Doka, said Al-Makura could not speak for the CPC bloc and was only seeking relevance.
Analysts warn of possible split
Political observers say the leadership tussle following Buhari’s death may deepen existing cracks within the Buhari political family and potentially accelerate defections from the APC.
Speaking to Weekend Trust, political analyst, Jackson Lekan Ojo, said while the CPC no longer exists as an independent party, the bloc within the APC still commands influence — and the vacuum left by Buhari must be carefully managed.
“The CPC merged into the APC, so technically, it doesn’t exist as a political party anymore. But the bloc remains relevant, especially because of the role Buhari played in holding it together,” Ojo said.
He argued that the scramble for leadership is unnecessary, but added that if the bloc insists on choosing a new rallying figure, it must prioritise someone with the ability to unify, not just someone with seniority.
“Anybody can emerge as CPC bloc leader. But will the person be a unifying factor? Buhari was not just respected because of his status — his age, his experience, his role in resolving party conflicts all contributed to his authority,” he said.
According to Ojo, there are now multiple disgruntled elements within the bloc who feel sidelined in Tinubu’s government.
“They believe they have not been carried along enough in terms of appointments and policy decisions. Many are unhappy, and it was Buhari who managed these grievances. He was the rallying point. Without him, tensions could boil over,” he added.
He said the bloc should focus on finding someone who commands respect across factions: “There are leaders in the bloc with experience. But do they have the capacity to unify members? That’s what should matter now.”
Political commentator, Iliyasu Gadu, echoed similar concerns, warning that the absence of Buhari’s restraining hand may embolden frustrated bloc members to jump ship.
“Even before his death, there were signals that some CPC elements were considering leaving the APC. Now that Buhari is no longer there to hold them back, many may feel free to move. That’s already happening,” he added.
He pointed to former Minister of Justice Abubakar Malami — a known CPC figure — as a case in point. Malami joined the ADC-led opposition coalition after dumping the APC, shortly before Buhari’s death.
Gadu said figures like Al-Makura may remain in the APC due to their roles in party structures, but many CPC loyalists who feel unrewarded could seek alternatives. (Daily trust)
