Nigeria’s economy is expected to expand more rapidly in 2025, supported by increased fuel output from the Dangote refinery stabilising inflation and a stronger investment climate, according to a new report by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).
The bank forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) growth will accelerate from 3.0 percent in 2024 to 3.6 percent in 2025. Between 2025 and 2029, growth is projected to average 4.0 percent annually, as domestic fuel production reduces reliance on imports and bolsters household purchasing power. Inflation is expected to moderate due to favourable statistical base effects and greater exchange rate stability, further supporting private consumption and economic recovery.
Nigeria’s location is also seen as a strategic advantage, positioning it as a commercial gateway to the wider West African region and offering businesses access to a growing regional market.
Oil remains Nigeria’s dominant export, but the report points to a shift: output from the Dangote Petroleum & Petrochemicals refinery is expected to exceed domestic demand, enabling Nigeria to become a net exporter of fuel for the first time. This development is likely to support export growth even as rising household consumption and investment increase demand for consumer goods, raw materials and capital inputs, driving up imports.
Afreximbank said reform momentum is gaining traction in Nigeria, enhancing business sentiment and attracting new investment. Measures taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria, including the March 2024 increase in capital requirements for banks, have strengthened the resilience of the financial sector and opened new pathways for growth. The current administration’s policy decisions, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and reforms to the foreign exchange system, have been credited with easing long-standing dollar shortages and improving macroeconomic conditions.
The country’s manufacturing and industrial construction sectors are poised for expansion, particularly within export processing zones managed by the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA)
These zones offer incentives such as duty-free imports, tax exemptions, and capital repatriation, with companies allowed to sell 100 percent of their output on the domestic market.
Nigeria’s pharmaceutical industry is also attracting investor interest, driven by government-backed initiatives such as the Presidential Initiative to Unlock the Healthcare Value Chain (PVAC). Supported by a $1 billion memorandum of understanding signed with Afreximbank in February 2024, the programme has already led to the establishment of more than 70 healthcare manufacturing firms.
Afreximbank is encouraging stakeholders to explore Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook, business environment and investment opportunities by downloading its 2025 Country Profile via the TRADAR Club platform, and by joining a webinar on February 18, 2025, themed “Unlock Nigeria’s Trade and Investment Potential with Digital Innovation.”
