To the esteemed leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Lagos State
Preliminary Report on the July 12th Lagos State Local Government Elections: Unprecedented Low Turnout and Dire Implications for 2027. The Stark Reality of Voter Turnout: A Wake-Up Call
The recent Lagos State Local Government Elections, held on July 12, 2025, present a critical juncture for our party, demanding an unvarnished and strategic re-evaluation of our grassroots engagement and internal democratic processes. While the declared results show a near-total sweep, securing all 20 chairmanship seats and 375 out of 376 councillorship positions , a deeper analysis reveals a precarious foundation that, if left unaddressed, poses dire consequences for the 2027 general elections.
This preliminary report presents a stark and sobering analysis of the recently concluded Lagos State Local Government Elections held on July 12th, 2025. While official results may present a veneer of victory in some areas, the undeniable reality is a catastrophic decline in voter participation, far exceeding even the dismal figures of 2021.
Our internal projections, corroborated by on-the-ground intelligence, indicate that the true voter turnout did not exceed 6% of the total collected Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), which stand at approximately 6.8 million in Lagos State.
This represents a significant drop from the already worrying 11% recorded in the 2021 local government elections and is alarmingly lower than national averages for even general elections.
This report is not intended to celebrate any perceived success, but rather to issue a dire warning to the leadership of our great party, the All Progressives Congress. The implications of this abysmal turnout extend far beyond the local government polls; they represent a fundamental erosion of trust, a growing disconnect with critical demographic segments, and a clear and present danger to our prospects in the 2027 general elections.
The party’s persistent refusal to foster genuine internal democracy, coupled with a discernible lack of capacity within our management structures at all levels, particularly at the Ward and Local Government levels has created a chasm between the APC and the very electorate it seeks to govern.
Crucially, this report will highlight the severe miscalculation regarding the political significance of various demographic blocs, particularly the Arewa community in Lagos State, which, contrary to our long-held assumptions, is emerging as a dominant electoral force, potentially even outweighing traditional Yoruba strongholds in certain contexts.
Their consistent oversight and lack of meaningful inclusion by the party, exacerbated by the recent demise of former President Muhammadu Buhari, represents a colossal strategic blunder. Furthermore, the persistent mistrust of the Igbo community, despite overtures, underscores a fundamental flaw in our outreach strategy.
This report unequivocally argues that any immediate plans for mass voter registration in August are misplaced. Instead, the APC leadership must first convene an urgent, internal conference of seasoned election experts and knowledgeable practitioners from within the party to conduct a thorough, honest, and unflinching review of the entire 2025 LG election process. Only after a comprehensive post-mortem, learning from our profound missteps, can we genuinely strategize for future voter engagement and registration, thereby rebuilding the fractured bridges with the electorate.
1. The Total Election Report: A Victory in Name Only
While the Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC) may declare our candidates victorious in a majority of the Local Government Areas (LGAs) and Ward elections, the true picture is far from a triumph. The ‘victory’ is hollow, built upon an alarmingly narrow base of participation. Our internal monitoring and cross-referencing with field agents and independent observers suggest that even in areas where the APC secured overwhelming majorities, the actual number of votes cast was minuscule in proportion to the registered voters.
Preliminary analysis shows that in many wards, winning candidates secured votes that barely exceeded the number of party agents present at the polling units. This is not a sign of democratic mandate but a symptom of widespread apathy, disillusionment, and a profound lack of belief in the electoral process itself. The public, by and large, simply did not show up. They did not just abstain from voting against us; they abstained from voting at all. This collective disengagement is a more potent threat than any opposition party, for it signals a silent but powerful vote of no confidence in the entire political establishment, including the APC.
The infrastructural and logistical aspects of the election, while seemingly functional on paper, failed to inspire confidence or facilitate participation. Polling units were sparsely populated, electoral officers often idle, and the general atmosphere was one of quiet resignation rather than democratic fervor. This lack of vitality is a direct reflection of the disconnect between the party and the populace. Our grassroots structures, meant to mobilize and inform, were largely ineffective or non-existent in many areas.
2. Voter Turnout: An Alarming Descent into Apathy
The most critical data point emerging from the July 12th elections is the unprecedented low voter turnout. With approximately 6.8 million collected PVCs in Lagos State, our preliminary calculations indicate that less than 408,000 votes were cast in total across the entire state, representing not more than 6% of the PVCs. This figure is not only a steep decline from the already low 11% recorded in the 2021 local government elections but also significantly lower than the generally poor voter turnout observed in national elections. For context, national presidential elections in Nigeria have seen turnouts plummeting to as low as 26-29% in recent cycles, yet local government elections in Lagos have now set a new, perilous low.
This trend is deeply troubling for several reasons:
Erosion of Legitimacy: When only a tiny fraction of the electorate participates, the legitimacy of the elected officials and, by extension, the entire democratic process is severely undermined. It fosters a perception that elections are merely rituals for elite rotation, rather than genuine expressions of popular will.
Growing Apathy and Disillusionment:
The consistent decline signifies a profound and worsening voter apathy. This apathy is not benign; it stems from a deep-seated disillusionment with the political class, a belief that votes do not count, and that the electoral process offers no real avenue for change or accountability. Promises made by politicians are increasingly viewed with cynicism, leading to widespread disengagement.
Vulnerability to External Shocks: A political system with such a fragile base of participation is inherently vulnerable. It makes the party susceptible to sudden shifts in sentiment, protest votes, or the emergence of charismatic figures from outside the traditional political structure who can galvanize the disaffected.
Loss of Public Trust: The low turnout is a direct manifestation of a deepening trust deficit between the government (and by extension, the ruling party) and the governed. People are not just tired of specific policies; they are losing faith in the very institutions of governance and the capacity of political parties to represent their interests.
The reasons for this unprecedented decline are multifaceted and interconnected, but they largely revolve around issues that the APC has, unfortunately, either ignored or exacerbated.
3. Demographics: The Unseen Shifts and Unaddressed Grievances
The 2025 Lagos LG election results, particularly the turnout figures, serve as a stark mirror reflecting crucial demographic shifts and the party’s failure to adapt to them. Our current approach has demonstrably left significant segments of the population feeling unheard, unrepresented, and ultimately disengaged.
3.1. The Arewa Community: A Dominant, Neglected Electoral Bloc
A critical and often underestimated factor in Lagos State’s electoral landscape is the Arewa community. Comprising various ethnic groups predominantly from Northern Nigeria, this bloc constitutes a numerically significant and geographically concentrated segment of Lagos’s population. Their presence is particularly strong in areas like Agege, Eti Osa (Ikoyi-Obalende), Mushin, Ojo, Kosofe (Ikosi Isheri & Agboyi Ketu), and parts of Oshodi-Isolo, where they form cohesive communities with distinct voting patterns.
My analysis strongly suggests that the Arewa community, when mobilized, represents a formidable electoral force, potentially even ahead of the traditional Yoruba demographic in terms of cohesive voting strength and potential for bloc votes in specific LGAs and Wards. The narrative that Lagos is exclusively a Yoruba stronghold, while historically true in overall population, is increasingly misleading in terms of electoral influence when considering concentrated voting power.
Historically, this community has shown a strong inclination towards the APC, largely due to the enduring influence of former President Muhammadu Buhari. His charisma and connection to the North provided a significant pull for this demographic, translating into consistent votes for the party, even at the local level. However, with the unfortunate demise of former President Buhari, that foundational bedrock of support is now gone.
The APC in Lagos has failed to adequately transition from leveraging Buhari’s personal appeal to building institutionalized, robust relationships with the Arewa leadership and grassroots within the state. There is a palpable sense of neglect and a feeling of being taken for granted. Many within the Arewa community express frustration over:
Lack of Recognition and Inclusion:
Despite their numbers and consistent support, they feel marginalized in party structures and decision-making processes, especially concerning candidate selection and appointments at the local government level.
Limited Direct Engagement:
Engagement has often been superficial, transactional, and episodic, rather than sustained and meaningful. There is a perceived absence of genuine dialogue about their specific needs, concerns, and aspirations.
Post-Buhari Void: The party has not effectively filled the void left by Buhari’s absence. There is no clear, trusted figure within the Lagos APC leadership who has genuinely cultivated their trust and can mobilize them with the same conviction.
The low turnout in areas with significant Arewa populations is a direct consequence of this neglect. They simply saw no compelling reason to vote for a party that, in their view, has failed to acknowledge their consistent loyalty or integrate them meaningfully into its political fabric. Courting this bloc, not just with rhetoric but with concrete actions of inclusion and empowerment, is no longer an option but an urgent imperative. Their political consciousness is evolving, and their loyalty cannot be presumed.
3.2. The Igbo Community: The Untrusting Bride
The Igbo community in Lagos, another significant and economically influential demographic, presents a different but equally critical challenge. While there have been overtures and attempts to court them, particularly given their commercial prowess and voting strength in certain areas, the pervasive sentiment remains one of deep-seated mistrust towards the APC.
This mistrust is rooted in several factors:
Historical Grievances and Perceived Marginalization:
Memories of past political tensions and perceived discrimination, amplified during recent general elections, continue to linger.
Lack of Genuine Empathy: The Igbo community often feels that the party’s attempts to court them are transactional and opportunistic, lacking genuine empathy for their concerns or a sincere commitment to their integration.
Political Identity and Alignment: A significant segment of the Igbo population in Lagos often aligns with political movements that resonate more with their broader ethnic identity and aspirations, which may not always converge with the APC’s current platform or actions.
Communication Gap: There is a fundamental communication breakdown. Messages intended to win them over often fall flat or are misinterpreted, partly due to historical context and partly due to a lack of culturally sensitive and consistent engagement.
The low turnout among the Igbo population, particularly in areas where their numbers are substantial, indicates that despite being “courted as a bride,” they remain deeply skeptical. They are not merely abstaining; they are actively withholding their participation, signaling that the party has not yet earned their trust or demonstrated a compelling reason for their votes. Any future engagement must move beyond token gestures and address the root causes of this pervasive mistrust.
3.3. The Youth and Disenfranchised Masses: Left Behind by a Static Party
Beyond specific ethnic blocs, the most significant demographic left behind by the APC is the vast majority of the electorate, particularly the youth and the broader segment of the population struggling with economic hardship. The low turnout is a screaming indictment of the party’s failure to address their aspirations, understand their grievances, and offer a credible path forward.
This disengagement stems directly from the APC’s refusal to allow internal democracy to hold sway in its ways and means. The prevailing culture of god-fatherism, imposition of candidates, and a general lack of transparent, merit-based processes for leadership selection has alienated:
Aspiring Youth: Young, vibrant, and capable individuals who genuinely wish to contribute to governance and party building are systematically shut out. The perception is that pathways to political participation and leadership are closed, reserved for a select few or those with financial muscle, rather than dedication or competence. This discourages engagement and fosters cynicism.
Party Loyalists at Grassroots: Dedicated party members at the Ward and LGA levels, who tirelessly work for the party, often feel disrespected and overlooked when decisions are made from above without their input or regard for their local realities.
The Electorate at Large: When the public observes a lack of internal democracy, it reinforces the belief that their votes ultimately do not matter, as candidates are often pre-determined. This erodes faith in the entire democratic system.
The “demography left behind” is not just a voting bloc; it is the very essence of the electorate that has chosen to opt out of a system they perceive as rigged and unresponsive. Their lack of participation is a powerful form of protest.
4. Implications and Consequences for the 2027 General Election
The dismal turnout in the July 12th Lagos LG elections is not an isolated incident; it is a profound harbinger of grave consequences for the APC in the 2027 general elections. If these trends persist, our party faces:
Decreased Electoral Viability: A consistently shrinking active voter base fundamentally undermines our capacity to win elections, particularly at higher levels where a wider mandate is required. While local elections can sometimes be won with minimal turnout, general elections demand broad-based participation.
Vulnerability to Opposition Mobilization: While our opponents also suffer from apathy, a highly disaffected electorate creates fertile ground for an opposition party, or a new movement, that can effectively tap into the prevailing frustrations and mobilize a segment of the currently disengaged voters. A united, well-resourced opposition could easily overturn our majorities if our base continues to shrink.
Erosion of Moral Authority: Governing with a mandate from only a tiny fraction of the populace diminishes the moral authority of the government and the party. It makes it harder to implement policies, gain public cooperation, and maintain social cohesion.
Internal Party Instability: The consequences of a perceived lack of internal democracy and poor electoral performance will inevitably lead to heightened internal strife, factionalism, and potential defections. Disgruntled members, especially youth and those from marginalized demographics, will seek alternative platforms, further weakening the party.
Loss of Lagos as a Stronghold: Lagos State has historically been a critical stronghold for our party. The declining participation rates, particularly among key demographics, suggest that this stronghold is becoming increasingly tenuous. Losing control or even facing a significant challenge in Lagos would have monumental implications for our national electoral strategy in 2027.
The 2027 elections will be a different ballgame. The political landscape is evolving, and the electorate is becoming more sophisticated in its disaffection. Relying on past victories or assumptions about voter loyalty, especially in the absence of genuine engagement and internal reforms, will be a catastrophic miscalculation.
5. Lack of Capacity in Party Management and the Need for Overhaul
A significant contributing factor to the low turnout and the party’s inability to connect with the electorate is the demonstrable lack of capacity within the party management at all levels, particularly at the Ward and Local Government levels. Our grassroots machinery, which should be the engine of voter mobilization and engagement, is largely dysfunctional or operating below optimal capacity.
This deficiency manifests in several ways:
Weak Mobilization Structures: Many Ward and LG party executives lack the organizational skills, resources, and dedication to effectively mobilize voters. They are often disconnected from the communities they are meant to represent.
Poor Communication Channels: Information flows from the party leadership to the grassroots and vice versa is often fractured. Policies are not adequately explained, and local grievances are not effectively relayed upwards.
Inadequate Training and Support: There is a severe lack of systematic training for party officials on voter engagement, data management, political communication, and grassroots organizing.
Ageing and Disconnected Leadership: While experience is valuable, many existing Ward and LG leaders are older, often less digitally savvy, and sometimes out of touch with the aspirations and concerns of a predominantly youthful population. Their methods of engagement are often outdated and ineffective in the current socio-political climate.
Resource Mismanagement/Lack of Resources: Crucial resources, when available, are sometimes mismanaged or do not reach the intended grassroots levels, further crippling mobilization efforts.
The Urgent Need for Overhaul:
To reverse these alarming trends, a fundamental and immediate overhaul of the party leadership and management structure is imperative. This overhaul must prioritize:
Dedicated Youth-based Leadership: We must actively identify, empower, and integrate dedicated, vibrant, and digitally literate youth into leadership positions at all levels, particularly at the Ward and LG levels. These are the individuals who can effectively communicate with and mobilize their peers. This is not merely about token appointments but about genuine devolution of responsibility and authority.
Inclusivity at its Core: The overhaul must be genuinely inclusive, ensuring that qualified individuals from all demographics, including the Arewa and Igbo communities, are not just represented but are integral to decision-making and implementation. Their perspectives and direct channels to their communities are invaluable.
Capacity Building and Training: A robust program of training and capacity building must be instituted for all party officials, focusing on modern political campaign strategies, data-driven approaches, effective communication, and ethical leadership.
Performance-based Assessment: Party officials at all levels should be held accountable for performance, with clear metrics for voter engagement, membership drive, and electoral outcomes. Those who consistently underperform or contribute to party disunity must be replaced.
Restoration of Internal Democracy: This is the bedrock. The party must commit to transparent, free, and fair internal elections and primary processes. This will foster genuine competition, allow competent leaders to emerge, and, crucially, restore faith among party members and the wider public that their participation matters. Without this, any other reform will be superficial.
6. What Should Be Done Next: A Call for Strategic Deliberation, Not Hasty Registration
The current inclination to immediately embark on a new round of voter registration in August, while seemingly proactive, is a profoundly misguided and erroneous impression. To do so without a deep understanding of why existing voters refused to participate would be akin to pouring water into a leaky bucket. We have 6.8 million collected PVCs in Lagos alone, yet barely 6% voted. The problem is not primarily a lack of registered voters; it is a catastrophic lack of voter engagement and trust.
Therefore, the immediate next step for the APC leadership must be to:
6.1. Convene an Urgent, Intra-Party Election Review Conference:
The Party (through its leadership) should first invoke a comprehensive conference dedicated solely to reviewing the entire 2025 Local Government election process from beginning to end. This must be an internal affair, a frank and unvarnished self-assessment.
Key characteristics of this conference:
Exclusive to Party Insiders: This is not a public relations exercise. The attendees must be election experts and knowledgeable election practitioners from within the Party. This explicitly excludes external consultants or non-members who may not fully grasp the intricacies of our internal dynamics and challenges. This ensures loyalty, candor, and actionable insights.
Mandate for Thorough Review: The conference’s mandate must be to meticulously dissect every aspect of the July 12th elections:
Pre-Election Phase: Review of candidate selection processes (primaries, consensus arrangements), campaign strategies, party mobilization efforts, resource allocation, and communication plans.
Election Day Execution: Analysis of logistics, party agent effectiveness, voter interaction at polling units, and observed irregularities (or lack of engagement).
Post-Election Analysis: Deep dive into the turnout figures, demographic breakdown of participation (and non-participation), and qualitative feedback from the grassroots.
Identify Root Causes of Apathy: The primary objective is to understand why voters did not turn out. Is it disillusionment with governance? Lack of faith in the electoral process? Perception of party imposition? Economic hardship? Political messaging failures?
Learn from Mistakes, Not Just Celebrate Victories: The focus should be on identifying weaknesses, strategic missteps, and areas for improvement, rather than simply validating the declared results.
Develop Contextualized Strategies: Based on the findings, the conference should deliberate on and formulate a comprehensive strategy tailored to the unique socio-political realities of Lagos State and the specific challenges faced by the APC.
6.2. Prioritize Rebuilding Trust and Engaging Existing Voters:
Before any mass registration drive, the party must focus on winning back the trust and engagement of the 6.8 million Lagosians who already possess PVCs but chose not to vote. This requires:
Genuine Outreach and Dialogue: Initiating sustained, empathetic dialogue with various communities, particularly the Arewa and Igbo blocs, to understand their concerns and actively demonstrate commitment to addressing them.
Demonstrable Internal Democracy: Implementing visible and credible reforms within the party that show a commitment to fair processes, meritocracy, and inclusivity. This includes transparent candidate selection and party leadership elections.
Visible Governance Impact: Ensuring that governance at both state and local levels directly impacts the lives of the citizens, particularly the youth and the vulnerable, thereby restoring faith in the party’s ability to deliver.
Targeted Voter Engagement Programs: Developing sophisticated, data-driven voter engagement programs that identify disaffected groups and tailor messaging and outreach to their specific concerns, rather than broad-brush campaigns.
6.3. Long-Term Strategic Planning for Voter Registration and Mobilization:
Only after the comprehensive review and the implementation of initial trust-building measures should the party consider plans for new voter registration. This new registration drive must be part of a larger, well-thought-out strategy that is:
Integrated with Party Reforms: Voter registration should be framed as an opportunity for newly energized and included party members to mobilize, demonstrating the party’s renewed commitment to genuine participation.
Targeted and Strategic: Instead of a blanket registration, focus efforts on areas and demographics identified by the conference as having potential for growth, and where the party has genuinely addressed underlying issues of trust and inclusion.
Resource-Efficient: Ensure that resources allocated for registration are effectively utilized and directly tied to tangible goals of voter engagement, rather than just raw numbers.
The Clock is Ticking Towards 2027
The July 12th Lagos State Local Government Election is a flashing red light for the All Progressives Congress. The exceptionally low voter turnout is not a minor setback; it is a profound crisis of legitimacy and trust that, if left unaddressed, will have devastating consequences for our party in the 2027 general elections.
We cannot afford to be complacent, to dismiss this as “just a local election,” or to continue with business as usual. The demise of former President Buhari has created a vacuum that demands a new, more nuanced approach to coalition building and demographic engagement, particularly with the critical Arewa community. The persistent mistrust of the Igbo community, despite our efforts, highlights a deeper systemic issue that must be resolved. The widespread apathy of the youth and other disenfranchised groups, fueled by a lack of internal democracy and perceived elite capture, is a ticking time bomb.
The time for self-congratulation is over. The time for honest self-assessment, fundamental internal reform, and strategic recalibration is now. We must first learn from this stark reality of voter turnout, demonstrate a genuine commitment to inclusivity and internal democracy, and rebuild trust with the electorate, before embarking on any further voter registration drives.
The future of our party and our role in the governance of Lagos State and Nigeria hinges on our ability to heed this wake-up call and act decisively. The path to 2027 starts with acknowledging this profound electoral apathy and addressing its root causes within our own party
Sincerely,
Fouad A Oki
