Nigerian stocks have recorded their most impressive run under any civilian administration since 1999, as the market rallies sharply under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
According to a Nairametrics analysis, the All-Share Index (ASI) has gained 136% since President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023.
The ASI, which stood at 55,769.28 points as of May 29, 2023, is now trading around 131,000 points—a historic milestone for the Nigerian capital market.
This is the highest gain ever recorded at this stage of any presidency since Nigeria returned to democratic rule.
For context:
- At this stage of the Buhari administration (2016), the market had gained 4.47%.
- Under Goodluck Jonathan, it was up 47% as of June 2013.
- During the Yar’Adua era, the market had lost 49%, amid Nigeria’s worst-ever stock market crash.
- The closest comparison is the Obasanjo administration, which posted 115% gains by July 2001.
In terms of market capitalization, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has expanded from about N30 trillion in May 2023 to over N75 trillion today—a staggering N45 trillion increase in value.
While this gain may look more modest when adjusted for exchange rate depreciation, the market’s performance is notable considering the broader macroeconomic challenges facing the country.
What’s driving the rally?
President Tinubu’s economic reform agenda has played a key role in the stock market’s performance.
From fuel subsidy removal to foreign exchange unification, the administration has introduced bold policies aimed at stabilizing public finances and restoring investor confidence.
While these policies have sparked inflation and squeezed household incomes, they have also earned praise from global institutions and the investment community, who see them as market-friendly and necessary for long-term growth.
The stock market’s bullish performance has also been aided by:
- CBN’s bank recapitalization drive which has boosted the valuation of listed banks and attracted fresh capital into the market. Over N5 trillion is expected to be raised by 2026.
- A surge in liquidity, with FAAC allocations increasing significantly following the removal of subsidies.
- Limited speculative activity in the forex market, forcing many investors to redirect funds into higher-yielding financial assets.
- Excess liquidity in the system, partly fueled by the record expansion of money supply and residual effects of the Buhari-era Ways and Means financing.
- High interest rates, with the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) currently at 27.5%, spurring investment in equities and fixed income assets.
- An uptick in corporate profitability, with many listed companies reporting revenue growth despite inflationary pressures and weakened consumer purchasing power.
Local investors in the driver’s seat
Nairametrics observed that local institutional and retail investors have driven much of the recent rally, while foreign portfolio investors remain cautious despite increased inflows in Q1 2025.
In the first quarter of 2025, domestic transactions totaled N1.418 trillion, accounting for 63.63% of the total market transactions of N2.23 trillion
Zooming out in the first two years of President Tinubu’s administration (May 2023 – May 2025), data from the NGX Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Report show that domestic participation in equity trading amounted to N9.375 trillion, representing about 81% of the total transaction value of N11.535 trillion.
In comparison, foreign participation stood at N2.159 trillion during the same period.
This shift reflects growing domestic confidence in the market, amid limited alternative investment options.
Sectors such as banking, agriculture, industrials, and oil & gas have been among the major beneficiaries, with several blue-chip stocks hitting all-time highs.
The banking sector, for example, has added over N7 trillion in market capitalization between 2023 and 2025—driven largely by strong gains from GTCO (N2 trillion) and Zenith Bank (N1.7 trillion).
In the ICT sector, MTN Nigeria has added over N3 trillion in market value, while Airtel Africa followed closely with a gain of about N1.8 trillion.
Recent and anticipated listings are also supporting sentiment. Aradel Holdings, which listed last year, added over N2 trillion to the market. Other potential listings like Dangote Fertilizer and a planned NNPC IPO could provide further momentum.
What next
With Nigerian equities already up 27.84% year-to-date as of mid-July 2025, analysts expect the market could close the month with double-digit gains. If this rally holds through the rest of the year, President Tinubu could go down as the most consequential Nigerian president for stock market performance.
However, for most Nigerians, the stock market’s stellar returns remain disconnected from their daily realities.
The ultimate judgment for the administration may not come from the NGX, but from how well Nigerians fare in terms of cost of living, employment, and access to basic services.
Still, for investors and market watchers, the data speaks for itself. Nigerian stocks are in a historic bull run—and it’s unfolding under the Tinubu administration.
(Nairametrics)
