The Osun State Gubernatorial election is fast approaching, and as the race draws closer, more Nigerians are becoming invested in the outcome.
With two frontrunners, Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, and Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the APC going head-to-head on Saturday, there’s been growing speculation over who wins this election.
Bayse Markets, Africa’s largest Prediction Market has opened a market tied to the Osun State Election, allowing users to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of the outcome, and for the first time in Nigeria’s history, millions are being traded on a gubernatorial election.
The size of the trades already being placed points to growing adoption of political prediction markets among Nigerians. One trader, “ayo_folarin,” has reportedly placed ₦4.8 million for a ₦17million payout if AMBO wins the election, while another trader has put ₦5 million behind Adeleke.
Prediction markets, however, are more than just betting. They have increasingly been used as a way to gauge political sentiments, and have attracted a lot of attention for their accuracy and for their ability to reflect changing expectations around elections in real-time.
These markets were particularly prominent during the 2024 US presidential election, where prediction markets became a major source of election forecasting.
The idea is simple: unlike a poll, which asks people what they think will happen, a prediction market asks participants to put money behind their view.
Because traders have money at stake, they have a financial incentive to make informed decisions. As new information emerges, traders buy and sell, causing market prices to move and continuously updating the collective view of the race. The result is a crowdsourced forecast backed by actual capital.
As of the time of writing, Adeleke is priced at a 69% chance of winning the election on Bayse, making him the current market favourite.
This is the first time Nigerians are heavily interfacing with prediction markets around a political election. With multiple state elections, party primaries and the 2027 general elections ahead, Bayse Markets sits at the center of a growing prediction market culture in Nigeria.
The real test, however, comes on election day. If the market gets Osun right, it could strengthen the case for prediction markets as a new way of understanding political sentiment in Nigeria.
Either way, the millions already being traded shows that Nigerians are beginning to put real money behind their political convictions, and that could mark the beginning of a new way of engaging with elections in Nigeria. (Nairametrics)
