APC governors vs Wike: What will Tinubu do?

When the presidency announced in August that President Bola Tinubu would travel to Europe for his annual leave, it said the president would return home after the working vacation to join the hectic campaign for the January 2027 election.

From the look of things, however, the president’s first major assignment when he returns to Nigeria on Tuesday, September 29, may not be the election itself. It may be how he manages the growing rift between FCT minister Nyesom Wike and the governors of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The position of the progressive governors is clear: Wike, a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is, in their view, a meddlesome interloper interfering in the affairs of the ruling party. They are urging him to either join the APC or quit the Rainbow Coalition, insisting that he cannot support President Tinubu’s re-election while backing candidates of other parties in the 2027 elections.

Their position, in essence, is that Wike cannot claim to be more committed to President Tinubu’s re-election than those who belong to the ruling party.

While some stakeholders remain hopeful that the president will broker a truce between the warring parties, sources within the APC said the governors may demand Wike’s sack, insisting that they have had enough of his “shenanigans”.

As a political analyst, I believe that would be an uphill task.

President Tinubu will likely want to do everything possible to keep Wike on his side, particularly with his re-election in view. Perhaps, as some have claimed, he could wield the big stick against Wike if he remains in office after the election.

On the other hand, it would be easier to find a pin in a haystack than to get Wike to join the APC at this point. Even if he had contemplated joining the party, he would not want it to appear that the governors had forced him into it.

Just as Hameed Ali, the former comptroller-general of the Nigeria Customs Service, refused to wear the agency’s uniform despite summons and criticism from the senate, Wike is unlikely to bow to the APC governors’ demand that he join their party.

One of the key leaders of the APC spoke with me last week. He said he had read my article titled “Wike vs APC Governors: When the guest becomes more powerful than the landlord” and he agreed with the points I raised. According to him, the APC and its governors have the capacity to “cut Wike to size” but have been constrained by the support he enjoys from the president.

He argued that even Siminalayi Fubara, Rivers governor, acting alone, would have rendered Wike politically “comatose” in Rivers state, but his hands were tied by the enormous influence Wike wields as FCT minister under the Tinubu administration.

He added that the APC governors had had enough and would make their position known to the president upon his return to the country.

But this is where the bigger issue lies. On page 22 of his book, An Image of Africa, the late acclaimed novelist Chinua Achebe wrote under the headline, “The Trouble with Nigeria”: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership.”

Achebe argued that there was fundamentally nothing wrong with the Nigerian character, land, climate, water or air. Rather, he identified the unwillingness or inability of leaders to rise to the responsibility of leadership and provide personal examples as the central problem.

He went further to cite the example of the late General Murtala Muhammed. Achebe recalled how, following Murtala’s assumption of power in July 1975, public servants in Lagos were reportedly found “on seat” as early as 7:30 am. The traffic gridlock that had seemingly defied successive governments also disappeared almost overnight.

Achebe’s point was simple: the character and example of a leader can profoundly influence the behaviour of the people he leads.

That observation is particularly relevant to the crisis between Wike and the APC governors.

I honestly believe that the crisis between the governors and Wike is, to a significant extent, a result of leadership failure by President Tinubu. He has indulged the excesses of the minister for too long.

When Wike granted an interview from Marbella, Spain, where he described the APC governors as “smart like 419ers but politically lazy”, I expected the president to call him to order. He did not.

Emboldened by what appears to be the president’s nonchalant attitude and indifference, the minister granted another interview in which he again poured invectives on the governors. From the look of things, Wike will likely grant more interviews in the coming days, and this will further worsen an already bad situation.

This is precisely where Achebe’s argument about leadership becomes relevant.

The leadership failure of President Tinubu in reining in the excesses of Wike and others is also manifested in the manner he is governing the country. If a leader cannot effectively manage the conduct of those closest to him, particularly those holding sensitive positions in his administration, how can he expect to impose discipline on the wider political structure?

Even the Holy Scriptures, in 1 Timothy 3:5, ask: “For if a man does not know how to rule his own house, how will he take care of the church of God?”

The APC governors may therefore be on a long thing if they really want the president to fire Wike. A few days ago, APC chieftain Chief Ayiri Emami demanded the sack of works minister, David Umahi. From the word go, I know that is a mission impossible. How will anyone expect him to sack Umahi, a politician who has promised to deliver the entire south-east to him during the presidential election?

If Tinubu cannot sack or even suspend Umahi despite all the allegations that have trailed him so far, how do we expect him to sack Wike, his super minister, a man he has trusted so much that he even “delegated monthly media chat” to him?

This is not necessarily about whether Wike deserves to be disciplined. It is about the political reality surrounding the president’s relationship with him.

Tinubu clearly values Wike’s political influence and support. Wike, for his part, has shown repeatedly that he is not the kind of politician who easily bows to pressure. He will not yield to the governors’ demands

Earlier this month, popular lawyer and journalist, Richard Akinnola, wrote on his Facebook page: “Save this post. We would revisit it in the next few months. Nyesom Wike would be Tinubu’s Achilles ‘ heel. I nor get strength to argue.”

It appears that prophecy may come to pass given the latest developments in the APC.

The immediate challenge before Tinubu is therefore bigger than settling a quarrel between a minister and some governors. It is about leadership. If the president allows a minister to repeatedly attack governors of his own party without consequence, he should not be surprised when those governors eventually push back.

Tinubu may succeed in brokering a truce between Wike and the APC governors. But unless he addresses the underlying issue of discipline and authority, the truce may only be temporary.

The question is not whether Tinubu can silence Wike. It is whether he can provide the leadership necessary to ensure that Wike, the governors and everyone else under his administration understand the limits of their political conduct.

On a final note, you really can’t blame Wike for disrespecting the APC governors. It is due to what is called ‘see finish’ in street parlance. As a former governor, he knows the governors don’t know their worth. The Wike I know won’t accept what he is dishing out to the APC governors. I also doubt if he can try this with the Class of 99 governors, which Tinubu himself was a part of.

Former Delta state governor, Chief James Ibori, took on the federal government in the fight for the actualisation of resource control for the people of the Niger Delta despite belonging to the same party. Tinubu also tackled the Obasanjo administration on the creation of additional local government areas in Lagos state. These are men who know their onions, not yes-men that anyone can rubbish without any consequences.

I wish the president a safe flight to Nigeria on Tuesday and best wishes ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Temidayo Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of the Daily Independent, is a member of the Society of Editors, United Kingdom. He can be reached via shabydayo@gmail.com.