2027: Can Kwankwaso deliver Kano’s 6.5 million voters for Obi against Tinubu and Atiku?

With 6.57 million registered voters, second only to Lagos, Kano State will again be a major prize in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election. Its political influence extends beyond its borders, making it an important battleground in the North West, a region whose voting pattern could shape the outcome of the contest.

President Bola Tinubu is hoping to consolidate his hold on the region and make further inroads into the northern electorate. While former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains one of his major challengers, it is former Kano governor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who could decide how the state’s votes are split.

Kwankwaso, who contested the presidency in 2023, polled 1,496,687 votes, representing 6.23% of the total votes cast nationally. Most of that came from Kano, where he secured 997,279 votes, accounting for 66.63% of his total. His hold on the state was confirmed when his protégé, Abba Kabir Yusuf, defeated the APC candidate in the governorship election.

APC gains ground

Kwankwaso’s electoral strength had made him an attractive ally for Tinubu, who sought to bring him into the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The effort failed, but the defections that followed cost the Kwankwasiyya Movement its only sitting governor.

Governor Yusuf, Kwankwaso’s son-in-law and protégé, eventually defected to the APC alongside several lawmakers and associates. He was a central figure in the movement’s structure, which made his departure particularly damaging.

The defection also changed the balance of power in Kano. The APC now has the sitting governor, two former governors, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Ibrahim Shekarau, the deputy president of the Senate, all three senators representing the state, 19 of its 24 members in the House of Representatives and 37 of the 40 members of the State House of Assembly. The party also controls the state’s 44 local government councils.

Former governor Ganduje, who until recently chaired the APC nationally, had maintained a network that rivalled Kwankwaso’s in the state. With Yusuf and his associates now in the ruling party, the APC hopes to combine the two to improve its chances in 2027.

Whether that accumulation of officeholders will translate into votes is another matter.

Atiku’s northern calculation

For Atiku, who is contesting on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Kano is a hard state to win. His northern origin and longstanding network give him a basis for appealing to the region, but his prospects in Kano are complicated by Kwankwaso’s decision to run alongside Obi on the platform of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

The development has further weakened prospects for a united opposition front against Tinubu. Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso were previously part of the opposition coalition under the ADC before they parted ways, leaving their supporters to compete for some of the same voters.

Dr Aminu Hayatu, a political scientist and lecturer at Bayero University, Kano, believes the division could work to the APC’s advantage.

“In fact, that is a strategy the ruling party has pursued to ensure the opposition does not unite. The major division has been between Kwankwaso and Atiku’s camp,” he tells The Africa Report.

Hayatu argues that with the two men now on separate platforms, it would be difficult for the opposition to defeat the ruling party in Kano, particularly given the APC’s control of the state’s machinery.

Kwankwaso’s gamble

The Kwankwasiyya Movement, however, believes the loss of the governor and several officeholders does not necessarily mean a loss of its grassroots following.

Having started from virtually no officeholders before the 2023 elections and gone on to defeat the APC in both the presidential and governorship contests in Kano, the movement believes it can repeat the feat in 2027.

It is also banking on public dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration, particularly over the removal of the fuel subsidy and the devaluation of the naira, which have contributed to economic hardship. The movement is equally hoping to benefit from resentment among its supporters over Yusuf’s defection, which they regard as a betrayal of Kwankwaso and the movement that brought him to power.

Habib Mailemo, spokesman of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, says the members will remain loyal to Kwankwaso, regardless of the platform or candidate he chooses to support.

Asked whether Kwankwaso could deliver the same number of votes for Obi despite no longer being the presidential candidate, Mailemo says they expect the same number, if not more.

“This time around, I believe the non-indigenous community and several other factors will also come into play. These include the prevailing economic hardship, the policies of the present administration and the sympathy of the good people of Kano State over what they consider the betrayal of the people by Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf,” he says.

He dismisses the argument that Kwankwaso’s alliance with Obi will split Atiku’s votes and ultimately benefit Tinubu, describing it as a false narrative being promoted by Atiku’s supporters.

The movement is projecting at least three million votes for the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket in Kano.

But Senator El-Jibrin Doguwa, an APC stalwart, believes Kwankwaso’s influence, particularly among young people, may not be enough to deliver the state for Obi.

He argues that religious considerations could complicate the alliance’s appeal, while Atiku’s influence in Kano, particularly against the backdrop of growing northern discontent with the Tinubu administration, should not be underestimated.

“But with the help of the government in power and the local governments that are keenly interested in delivering Kano for Tinubu, Kano will be an interesting scene in the 2027 election,” he tells The Africa Report.

Hayatu, however, remains sceptical about Kwankwaso’s ability to pass his personal electoral appeal to another presidential candidate, arguing that it may be too late to try. (The Africa Report)