2027: 5 power battles in APC threatening Tinubu’s reelection plans

With Nigeria’s opposition fragmented ahead of the 2027 elections, President Bola Tinubu appears to have an electoral advantage. But within his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), rival ambitions and personal feuds among powerful figures are threatening to complicate his reelection bid.

Tinubu faces a difficult balancing act of keeping competing interests on his side without alienating key allies whose support he needs in 2027.

Five power struggles show just how difficult that task could become.

1. Akpabio vs Uzodimma: The Senate presidency race starts early

Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma are two stabilising forces in Tinubu’s power orbit.

Akpabio ensures that all Tinubu’s requests get an easy pass in the legislature. For this effort, he endures being called the leader of a rubber-stamp assembly. Uzodimma chairs the APC Governors’ Forum, making him the principal intermediary between his colleagues and the president. He also leads the Renewed Hope Ambassadors, the earliest grassroots mobilisation platform for Tinubu’s reelection.

However, calculations about who becomes the next Senate president have set the two powerful men against each other. Akpabio wants to retain the seat; Uzodimma aims to unseat him. More than a year before the 11th Assembly is inaugurated, both men have resorted to desperate measures.

Uzodimma, whose tenure as governor ends in January 2028, plans to cut it short by six months so he can move to the Senate in June 2027 and become the Senate president – Nigeria’s third most powerful position.

The prospect unsettles Akpabio. To shut the door on Uzodimma, the Senate amended its rules in May, restricting the presidency to lawmakers who have served eight unbroken years. Just weeks ago, Akpabio’s team moved a motion that his seat would not be open to contest next year.

“The ayes have it,” said a grinning Akpabio, striking the gavel.

Still unsettled, Akpabio, during the inauguration of the president’s campaign council in October, urged Tinubu not to change the Senate leadership that had supported him, while sending a veiled warning Uzodimma’s way.

“You must not abandon your people,” he said. “I did eight years as a governor; the constitution says you should do eight years. No need to start eyeing another position that is not available. I’ve been in this business for over 25 years and I always win.”

2. Akpabio vs Oshiomhole: Another challenge to Senate control

A former labour leader who reinvented himself as a partisan politician, served two terms as governor of Edo State and later became APC national chairman, Adams Oshiomhole is not a disposable force in the ruling party. Tinubu appointed him as one of the deputy directors-general of his 2027 campaign council.

When he entered the Senate in 2023, Oshiomhole had his eyes on the Senate presidency. However, when it became clear that Akpabio was the favoured candidate, he stepped back to bide his time.

In May, he became the lone dissenter, tackling Akpabio over the Senate rule amendment. “You don’t make laws either for yourself or against specific individuals that you fear may come,” Oshiomhole said. “That is the beginning of the road to life presidency and dictatorship.”

While there appears to be a ceasefire now, Tinubu may brace for a potential struggle between Akpabio and Oshiomhole when the Senate presidency race properly opens next year.

3. Uzodimma vs Okorocha: The battle for Imo West

A late-October ruling by an Abuja court now dims Uzodimma’s senatorial ambition. The court invalidated his candidacy and handed the ticket to Rochas Okorocha, a former Imo governor.

Beyond Okorocha, the development benefits Akpabio and the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, one of Uzodimma’s sworn political enemies.

Can Tinubu look the other way without risking forfeiting Uzodimma’s full support?

Okorocha has aligned with Wike. Both question what value Uzodimma brings, if under his watch in 2023, Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in Imo.

4. Wike vs Uzodimma: The Rainbow Coalition scare

Wike, a member of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), leads the Rainbow Coalition working for Tinubu’s reelection. The president banks on Wike to deliver Rivers State and the FCT.

However, Uzodimma is leading the APC Governors’ Forum in opposing Wike’s Rainbow Coalition.

The position deepens the existing tension between them over Uzodimma’s support for Wike’s estranged political godson and successor, Siminalayi Fubara, during the political crisis in Rivers State.

Wike’s support could prove valuable in Rivers State and the FCT, but his clashes with influential APC figures risk turning an electoral asset into another source of internal friction.

5. Wike vs Diri: The Bayelsa power struggle

Wike is against Bayelsa Governor Duoye Diri for much the same reason he is against Uzodimma. Tinubu had successfully poached Diri from the PDP to the APC last year as part of his strategy to win the state in 2027.

Bayelsa has a small voting population, but victory there would be symbolic for Tinubu for two reasons. Bayelsa is the home state of Seriake Dickson, the national leader of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), on whose platform Obi is running. Second, the candidate of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, won the state in 2019 and 2023, and Tinubu would want to prevent that from happening again by using Diri.

However, Diri’s control of the state is being challenged by Wike’s man, George Turnah. A bitter exchange between the two camps last week shows that the rift is far from over.

The conflict presents Tinubu with another coalition-management problem that risks undermining the political unity needed to edge out Obi and Atiku.

As the 2027 election approaches, Tinubu must prevent personal ambitions and struggles over political control from undermining the coalition on which his reelection bid depends. (The Africa Report)