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The race for Oke-Mosan governorship office in Ogun State, like every other states has reached its crescendo. In this analysis, Sulaiman Fasasi reviews the situation in the State.
Like never before, the governorship election in Ogun State has remained unpredictable most especially with the outcome of the presidential and national assembly elections in the State. Though, the variables which played out during the presidential election might not be the same when the people go to polls in few days’ time, the outcome of the elections has further separated shaft from the grains and pretenders from the real contenders for the topmost position in the State.
Governor Ibikunle Amosun would be completing his two terms of eight years constitutional tenure by May 29 and battle to take over the job of the outgoing governor has reached the crescendo with about 38 contenders tossing their hats in the ring.
Foremost amongst the candidates are Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka of the African Democratic Congress, (ADC); Dapo Abiodun of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Abdulkabir Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied People’s Movement, (APM); and Senator Buruji Kashamu of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Others are former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole of the Action Democratic Party, ADP; Olurotimi Paseda of Social Democratic Party, SDP; Ademola Ogunbanjo of Alliance for New Nigeria, ANN; amongst others.
Paseda is not a greenhorn in Ogun State politics, he is taking the shot at the governorship seat for the second time, having contested against governor Amosun in 2015 under Unity Party of Nigeria, but the choice of SDP this time around might be difficult delivering the ambition in the State.
Ademola Ogunbajo who is appearing in the political scene for the first time in the State has endeared himself into the heart of many people especially with his brilliant performance in recent political debates in the State but the party, ANN, is relatively unknown to larger percentage of voters in the State.
Dimeji Bankole
Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole is another very brilliant, vibrant and young politician who enjoys the goodwill of his father, Chief Suarau Alani Bankole.
That Bankole lost his re-election bid in 2011 election in a single local government of Abeokuta South is still a misery. Many people believed he was prevented from returning to the House by powers that be, pointing to the role he played during the sickness of former President Umar Yar’Adua and how he allegedly blocked the then Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan from being sworn in as acting president for a long time.
Bankole has traversed the grassroots of the State during his very silent but effective campaign, his strength cannot be undermined, but the former speaker has two things not working in his favour. Apart from the party, ADP, which is also relatively unknown, result of which was the abysmal performance in the just concluded presidential and national assembly elections, Bankole and governor Amosun are not only from the same senatorial district of Ogun Central, they are from the same local government of Abeokuta South.
Buruji Kashamu
In 2015, the candidate of the PDP in Ogun East Senatorial District and now the governorship candidate of the party, Senator Buruji Kashamu was considered an underdog, he defeated Dapo Abiodun of the APC who, incidentally, will, again, square up with Kashamu as the governorship candidate of APC in this election.
Kashamu has a lot of followership in Ogun State; he is considered a compassionate and philanthropic politician, who had done a lot for the needy under his ‘Omo Ilu’ Foundation. Although, the PDP is yet to recover from its political bungling since the parallel primary which produced two candidates, his co-contender; Hon Ladi Adebutu who was duly recognised by the National Leadership of the party is still in court to reclaim his mandate, the uncertainty will definitely affect the fortunes of party in the governorship election as many of the loyalists were already decamping to other political parties.
Adebutu had remained steadfast, despite not being recognised by INEC, in his campaign for the PDP and with the performance of the party at the just concluded presidential election where the PDP came second with 194,655 votes, anyone who undermines the party will be doing that at his/her own peril.
Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka (GNI)
Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, popularly called GNI, the ADC governorship candidate is a major contender in the race to Oke Mosan. He has been predicted to be one of the three candidates that are likely to win the election because of his political trajectory in the State.
Isiaka is a familiar political brand in the state. He hails from Ogun West, the District which is yet to produce a governor since the creation of the state over 40 years ago. He enjoys goodwill amongst the people of the State having contested same seat twice but defeated by the incumbent governor Amosun on the two occasions.
GNI has remained unrelenting in his ambition to govern the state. It can be said that the ADC candidate has no baggage and Ogun West is more united today to work for the actualization of the Yewa Agenda more than it has ever been.
Just like many other candidates, Isiaka has never enjoyed the fortune of going into elections with his house intact. He was denied the ticket in 2011 by the PDP due to the internal wrangling which gave birth to People’s Party of Nigeria, PPN on which platform Isiaka contested with the support of the then governor of Ogun State, Otunba Gbenga Daniel.
His movement back to the party in 2015 could not help him. Though he flew the flag of the party, this time, without the support of his political godfather, Gbenga Daniel, Isiaka, again, lost the election to Amosun.
Eight years after, the situation has not in any way changed. Isiaka has entered the governorship race again on the ticket of the relatively new ADC, without the support base of Kashamu and Daniel. Isiaka is hoping to triumph this time around with the goodwill and support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was pivotal to the formation of the ADC. The party enjoys a relative popularity in Ogun State and GNI is likely to enjoy sympathy votes, the like of which delivered Amosun in 2011.
Many political analysts however believe that apart from the sympathy, Isiaka might be the beneficiary of the crises within the ruling party in the State, which had given birth to a splinter party, the Allied People’s Movement.
The performance of ADC in the presidential election is not a good news to the ambition of its governorship candidate. Apart from the House of Representatives seat in Isiaka’s constituency; Yewa North/Ipokia federal constituency, the party lost all elections, including the three senatorial seats to the APC.
The APC would have been on a good standing going to the polls, the party is divided into two with larger chunk of governor Amosun’s loyalists defecting to the APM alongside the governor’s preferred gubernatorial candidate, Akinlade.
Dapo Abiodun
Dapo Abiodun, supported by a group of the party loyal to the former governor of the State, Aremo Olusegun Osoba had emerged through rancorous primary, against the wish of governor Amosun who preferred Akinlade. Abiodun, an oil magnate, enjoys the support of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, national leader of the party and former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu and most importantly, the National Working Committee headed by its Chairman, Adams Oshiomole.
Abiodun also enjoys a lot of goodwill especially by section of the party not happy with governor Amosun. Although Abiodun had expressed hope that Amosun will lead his campaign, the governor has remained steadfast or better still obstinate to his threat to work against Abiodun in the election, the position which has earned him suspension by the leadership of APC.
Osinbajo has stepped in leading Abiodun’s campaign in the State but many still doubt the capacity to govern Ogun State. Abiodun has not honoured a single governorship debate or appeared on any radio programme, like others, to address the people of the State.
Abiodun’s ambition is again hanging in the balance with series of court cases hanging on his neck. From allegedly certificate scan, to perjury case before different courts in the country, the major thing that his supporters will be banking on as they step out to determine his fate is the federal might.
At the Presidential campaign rally in Ogun State, President Muhammadu Buhari, though, recognised Abiodun as the candidate of the party in the State and raised his hand; Buhari tactically avoided campaigning for Abiodun when he told the world that the people of the State are free to vote for any candidate of their choice.
Abiodun Akinlade
Governor Amosun’s resolve on Akinlade is untiring. The governorship candidate enjoys an uncommon support from Amosun who was, obviously not deterred by the expulsion dangling on his head as recommended to the National Executive Committee of APC by Adams Oshiomole led NWC, the Senator-Elect has been leading the campaign for the APM in the State.
Of surprises to many, was the courage, exhibited by Amosun during the presidential campaign in Abeokuta, Amosun didn’t mince words when he told the gathering involving President Muhammadu Buhari and other leaders of the party not to vote for the candidate of APC.
Akinlade is passionate about governing Ogun State. He has promised to lift many out of poverty, develop rural areas, enhance the revenue base of the state and sustain the legacies of the Amosun administration.
He has age, bubbling energy of a youth and intelligence on his side. His legislative experience and stint as Special Adviser to Amosun on taxation has sort of prepared him for the office. Besides Amosun’s support which has worked for and against him, Akinlade also enjoy sizeable number of support from Ogun West people and those who believed in justice and equity on which the ‘Yewa Agenda’ is placed.
Akinlade also delivered the House of Representatives candidate of Ipokia/Yewa South Federal Constituency to APM in the national assembly election. But unlike ADC which also secured only one seat in the House of Representatives election, it is believed that Amosun should be able to deliver up to 70% of his supporters in Ogun Central and about 50% in Ogun East to Akinlade’s ambition.
Alignment and realignments are expected within the few days to the election and while this will go a long way in determining the outcome of the election, the APC can only be the loser and gainer at the end. Majority, if not all, of those who constituted the APM are registered members of APC and except a concerted effort is made to resolve the warring members, many believe there is likelihood of repeat of 2011 event in the State.
Like what’s happening in APC, majority of members of PDP in 2011 moved to the PPN since the party could not manage his rancorous parallel primary; both PDP and PPN lost the election and paved way for the ACN in the election. (Daily Independent)
Like never before, the governorship election in Ogun State has remained unpredictable most especially with the outcome of the presidential and national assembly elections in the State. Though, the variables which played out during the presidential election might not be the same when the people go to polls in few days’ time, the outcome of the elections has further separated shaft from the grains and pretenders from the real contenders for the topmost position in the State.
Governor Ibikunle Amosun would be completing his two terms of eight years constitutional tenure by May 29 and battle to take over the job of the outgoing governor has reached the crescendo with about 38 contenders tossing their hats in the ring.
Foremost amongst the candidates are Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka of the African Democratic Congress, (ADC); Dapo Abiodun of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Abdulkabir Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied People’s Movement, (APM); and Senator Buruji Kashamu of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Others are former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole of the Action Democratic Party, ADP; Olurotimi Paseda of Social Democratic Party, SDP; Ademola Ogunbanjo of Alliance for New Nigeria, ANN; amongst others.
Paseda is not a greenhorn in Ogun State politics, he is taking the shot at the governorship seat for the second time, having contested against governor Amosun in 2015 under Unity Party of Nigeria, but the choice of SDP this time around might be difficult delivering the ambition in the State.
Ademola Ogunbajo who is appearing in the political scene for the first time in the State has endeared himself into the heart of many people especially with his brilliant performance in recent political debates in the State but the party, ANN, is relatively unknown to larger percentage of voters in the State.
Dimeji Bankole
Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole is another very brilliant, vibrant and young politician who enjoys the goodwill of his father, Chief Suarau Alani Bankole.
That Bankole lost his re-election bid in 2011 election in a single local government of Abeokuta South is still a misery. Many people believed he was prevented from returning to the House by powers that be, pointing to the role he played during the sickness of former President Umar Yar’Adua and how he allegedly blocked the then Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan from being sworn in as acting president for a long time.
Bankole has traversed the grassroots of the State during his very silent but effective campaign, his strength cannot be undermined, but the former speaker has two things not working in his favour. Apart from the party, ADP, which is also relatively unknown, result of which was the abysmal performance in the just concluded presidential and national assembly elections, Bankole and governor Amosun are not only from the same senatorial district of Ogun Central, they are from the same local government of Abeokuta South.
Buruji Kashamu
In 2015, the candidate of the PDP in Ogun East Senatorial District and now the governorship candidate of the party, Senator Buruji Kashamu was considered an underdog, he defeated Dapo Abiodun of the APC who, incidentally, will, again, square up with Kashamu as the governorship candidate of APC in this election.
Kashamu has a lot of followership in Ogun State; he is considered a compassionate and philanthropic politician, who had done a lot for the needy under his ‘Omo Ilu’ Foundation. Although, the PDP is yet to recover from its political bungling since the parallel primary which produced two candidates, his co-contender; Hon Ladi Adebutu who was duly recognised by the National Leadership of the party is still in court to reclaim his mandate, the uncertainty will definitely affect the fortunes of party in the governorship election as many of the loyalists were already decamping to other political parties.
Adebutu had remained steadfast, despite not being recognised by INEC, in his campaign for the PDP and with the performance of the party at the just concluded presidential election where the PDP came second with 194,655 votes, anyone who undermines the party will be doing that at his/her own peril.
Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka (GNI)
Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, popularly called GNI, the ADC governorship candidate is a major contender in the race to Oke Mosan. He has been predicted to be one of the three candidates that are likely to win the election because of his political trajectory in the State.
Isiaka is a familiar political brand in the state. He hails from Ogun West, the District which is yet to produce a governor since the creation of the state over 40 years ago. He enjoys goodwill amongst the people of the State having contested same seat twice but defeated by the incumbent governor Amosun on the two occasions.
GNI has remained unrelenting in his ambition to govern the state. It can be said that the ADC candidate has no baggage and Ogun West is more united today to work for the actualization of the Yewa Agenda more than it has ever been.
Just like many other candidates, Isiaka has never enjoyed the fortune of going into elections with his house intact. He was denied the ticket in 2011 by the PDP due to the internal wrangling which gave birth to People’s Party of Nigeria, PPN on which platform Isiaka contested with the support of the then governor of Ogun State, Otunba Gbenga Daniel.
His movement back to the party in 2015 could not help him. Though he flew the flag of the party, this time, without the support of his political godfather, Gbenga Daniel, Isiaka, again, lost the election to Amosun.
Eight years after, the situation has not in any way changed. Isiaka has entered the governorship race again on the ticket of the relatively new ADC, without the support base of Kashamu and Daniel. Isiaka is hoping to triumph this time around with the goodwill and support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was pivotal to the formation of the ADC. The party enjoys a relative popularity in Ogun State and GNI is likely to enjoy sympathy votes, the like of which delivered Amosun in 2011.
Many political analysts however believe that apart from the sympathy, Isiaka might be the beneficiary of the crises within the ruling party in the State, which had given birth to a splinter party, the Allied People’s Movement.
The performance of ADC in the presidential election is not a good news to the ambition of its governorship candidate. Apart from the House of Representatives seat in Isiaka’s constituency; Yewa North/Ipokia federal constituency, the party lost all elections, including the three senatorial seats to the APC.
The APC would have been on a good standing going to the polls, the party is divided into two with larger chunk of governor Amosun’s loyalists defecting to the APM alongside the governor’s preferred gubernatorial candidate, Akinlade.
Dapo Abiodun
Dapo Abiodun, supported by a group of the party loyal to the former governor of the State, Aremo Olusegun Osoba had emerged through rancorous primary, against the wish of governor Amosun who preferred Akinlade. Abiodun, an oil magnate, enjoys the support of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, national leader of the party and former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu and most importantly, the National Working Committee headed by its Chairman, Adams Oshiomole.
Abiodun also enjoys a lot of goodwill especially by section of the party not happy with governor Amosun. Although Abiodun had expressed hope that Amosun will lead his campaign, the governor has remained steadfast or better still obstinate to his threat to work against Abiodun in the election, the position which has earned him suspension by the leadership of APC.
Osinbajo has stepped in leading Abiodun’s campaign in the State but many still doubt the capacity to govern Ogun State. Abiodun has not honoured a single governorship debate or appeared on any radio programme, like others, to address the people of the State.
Abiodun’s ambition is again hanging in the balance with series of court cases hanging on his neck. From allegedly certificate scan, to perjury case before different courts in the country, the major thing that his supporters will be banking on as they step out to determine his fate is the federal might.
At the Presidential campaign rally in Ogun State, President Muhammadu Buhari, though, recognised Abiodun as the candidate of the party in the State and raised his hand; Buhari tactically avoided campaigning for Abiodun when he told the world that the people of the State are free to vote for any candidate of their choice.
Abiodun Akinlade
Governor Amosun’s resolve on Akinlade is untiring. The governorship candidate enjoys an uncommon support from Amosun who was, obviously not deterred by the expulsion dangling on his head as recommended to the National Executive Committee of APC by Adams Oshiomole led NWC, the Senator-Elect has been leading the campaign for the APM in the State.
Of surprises to many, was the courage, exhibited by Amosun during the presidential campaign in Abeokuta, Amosun didn’t mince words when he told the gathering involving President Muhammadu Buhari and other leaders of the party not to vote for the candidate of APC.
Akinlade is passionate about governing Ogun State. He has promised to lift many out of poverty, develop rural areas, enhance the revenue base of the state and sustain the legacies of the Amosun administration.
He has age, bubbling energy of a youth and intelligence on his side. His legislative experience and stint as Special Adviser to Amosun on taxation has sort of prepared him for the office. Besides Amosun’s support which has worked for and against him, Akinlade also enjoy sizeable number of support from Ogun West people and those who believed in justice and equity on which the ‘Yewa Agenda’ is placed.
Akinlade also delivered the House of Representatives candidate of Ipokia/Yewa South Federal Constituency to APM in the national assembly election. But unlike ADC which also secured only one seat in the House of Representatives election, it is believed that Amosun should be able to deliver up to 70% of his supporters in Ogun Central and about 50% in Ogun East to Akinlade’s ambition.
Alignment and realignments are expected within the few days to the election and while this will go a long way in determining the outcome of the election, the APC can only be the loser and gainer at the end. Majority, if not all, of those who constituted the APM are registered members of APC and except a concerted effort is made to resolve the warring members, many believe there is likelihood of repeat of 2011 event in the State.
Like what’s happening in APC, majority of members of PDP in 2011 moved to the PPN since the party could not manage his rancorous parallel primary; both PDP and PPN lost the election and paved way for the ACN in the election. (Daily Independent)
