Atiku’s miscalculations
Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at the February 2023 general elections, fancies himself a democrat. Unfortunately, he lacks the qualities of those who can be so described.
The 19th century American philosopher Williams James described the ‘democratic temperament’ as comprising ‘a willingness to act, the placing of public good ahead of private comfort, generosity toward one’s opponents, and mutual respect among citizens of different viewpoints, races, genders, classes, and religions.’
I would add that a democrat accepts that electoral contests can only have two outcomes – win or lose. They respect rules, conventions and don’t set out to destroy institutions which are constitutionally mandated to manage these contests or adjudicate when disputes break out. They also know there’s time for everything; a time for electioneering and a time to move on.
Atiku’s post-election conduct over the years shows he lacks the democratic temperament. This deadly deficiency has led him, time and again, to make costly miscalculations that have blighted what could have been a stellar political career with recurring cycles of defeat.
On Monday, the former VP formally reacted to his latest loss at the Supreme Court. It was a bilious outing that diminished him. He didn’t congratulate the winner – Bola Tinubu; not that it mattered. In this, he’s queuing behind the likes of Donald Trump in the column of graceless losers.
What shocked me the most, however, was his blithe tarring of the Supreme Court as ‘compromised.’ As usual, he didn’t provide particulars of this ‘compromise’, just as he didn’t table one shred of evidence to back claims that he won the February election. But in a moment of extreme recklessness he put a question mark on the integrity of the seven justices who sat over his appeal, as well as the three others who were not on the panel. That is not fair, reasonable or rational.
I know that losing politicians picking on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the courts is national sport in Nigeria. But savaging important institutions of a country you aspire to govern just because you lost an election, fairly or unfairly, is despicable.
His scorched earth personal attacks against Tinubu, his erstwhile comrade-in-arms were all too revealing of an individual for whom nothing matters – not the past, not the present, not the future. His only reason for living is being installed president of this nation. For thirty years he has invested his all pursuing this one goal without success. It’s not because of a gang-up of the cosmos against him: he must have been doing something wrong.
Back in 1999 when then PDP presidential candidate, Olusegun Obasanjo, was prospecting for a running mate, legend has it he was totally sold on picking the charismatic former Kano State Governor, Abubakar Rimi, until one-time Minister of Works, Tony Anenih, intervened.
He reportedly warned Obasanjo that if he went ahead with Rimi, he should make sure there was a policeman always standing outside the door as they would fight regularly. But if he wanted someone who would be one hundred percent loyal he should appoint Atiku who had just been elected governor of Adamawa State. His counsel was accepted but as we would soon see, even the famed wheeler-dealer was mistaken. The even-tempered image of the man he was promoting would turn out to be a mere veneer.
Many have said that in Atiku Obasanjo saw someone he could groom to take over as president. But his VP was a man in a hurry. In no time his associates started marketing a poisonous political concoction called the ‘Mandela Option.’ It was so named because the veteran South African leader had elected to stand down after just one term on account of advanced age. It was his choice.
Obasanjo didn’t see himself in similar circumstances. He was still vigorous, mentally alert and determined to serve two terms if the voters agreed. While has dreaming, his scheming deputy was quietly taking over the PDP. By the time the 2003 electoral season rolled over the president found himself going on bended knees to beg Atiku for support. It was a humiliation he never forgot. It was a miscalculation that the man he once thought of installing as successor paid for dearly, as he was reduced to just drinking tea in office and finally driven out of the ruling party.
In 2011, after Goodluck Jonathan, had taken over following the death of Umaru Yar’Adua, the mood within PDP was that the incumbent should be allowed to take the presidential ticket. Atiku disagreed and rallied three other Northern aspirants – Aliyu Gusau, Bukola Saraki and Ibrahim Babangida – to offer a regional challenge to the emerging consensus. The ex-VP was chosen as the Northern consensus candidate and took his challenge to the convention floor on Eagle Square, Abuja.
Despite his best efforts, he was resoundingly defeated. Clearly sensing the fate that awaited him at the convention ballot, his speech to delegates was classic Atiku. It was a bitter and explosive attack on his rival and the party leadership who he insinuated had already rigged the outcome against him. He would sulk for the next four years, biding his time.
In 2015, he was planning another run for president. Again, Jonathan who wanted a second term stood in the way. He had the option of waiting patiently for another four years, preserving PDP as the potent platform that had bragged it would rule for 60 years. Instead, the impatient Atiku joined the revolt of five governors and others who defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). That critical move empowered the nascent opposition, emasculated the ruling party and led to its downfall.
It was another Atiku miscalculation. He had overconfidently assumed he would walk in and pick up the ticket. He underrated the level of support that the APC legacy groups had committed to Muhammadu Buhari. After he was worsted at the Teslim Balogun Stadium late in 2014, he went into another massive sulk – retreating from virtually all party activities.
Sensing that Buhari would seek a second term in 2019 and APC with its commitment to power rotation would not hand the ticket to another Northerner in 2023, Atiku staged a predictable return to his PDP vomit. After losing handily four years ago, he rehashed his usual post-defeat chorus.
But the ex-VP’s defining miscalculation happened in this electoral cycle. His decision to run against the power rotation principle that argued it was only fair that after eight years of Buhari, the next president should come from the South, broke his party. It was partly why Peter Obi left and took the Southeast with him. It was the reason Nyesom Wike fought him till the bitter end. When he had the option of sacrificing then party chair, Iyorchia Ayu, to appease aggrieved members, he chose to thumb his nose at his opponents. The upshot was that a divided house lost to a more cohesive one.
Atiku believes a coalition of the judiciary and INEC felled him. He is free to live wherever he chooses: in Dubai or in denial. The historical fact is that a presidential election was held in which the traditional PDP vote fractured three ways because of the Turaki Adamawa’s grand miscalculation.
He is now compounding his error by attacking the Supreme Court over an irreversible election outcome. If Atiku didn’t believe in the integrity of our courts, why subject himself to their adjudication at tribunal and apex court levels. If judgment had gone in his favour would he have made the same assessments?
He has hinted he might join the race come 2027. Again, he is assuming that the PDP was created only for the actualisation of his presidential dreams. He thinks the party would be ever ready to hand its ticket to a man who has lost again and again. I dare say if the party declines him the ticket, he will look for another platform on which to run.
A true democrat has an understanding of the times. A few days ago, former US Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race for the Republican Party ticket in the face of the robust bid by his former boss Trump. He said after quiet contemplation he came to the conclusion that ‘this is not my time.’ A true democrat is realistic. They know when to call it a day. Fake ones don’t, they are driven only by their primary obsession. Nothing else matters.
•Written By Festus Eriye