Even before the recent declaration by President Muhammadu Buhari that he would seek the consent of Nigerians through the ballot box for a second term, many politicians of northern extraction with presidential ambition had thrown their hats into the murky ring, with analysts saying most of them are only trying “to beat a fast running time.”
The presidential aspirants from the North angling for 2019 are not only from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leading opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). They cut across many other parties and even those who are studying the situation from a distance will soon come to the fore as time for primaries is fast approaching.
It is an established fact that only one person will emerge as president, in line with democratic tenets and this means the lucky winner would ultimately “retire” all other northern candidates that he defeated, if not permanently, at least for not less than 12 years.
With his declaration, President Muhammadu Buhari who is now 75, will most likely get the ticket of his party, the APC, even if others will challenge him while in the PDP, of all the many contenders, only one will get the ticket during its primaries, which must be held latest by October, according to the INEC time table. It is the same process for other political parties that will field candidates.
Either way, three factors would play out of what becomes of the flag-bearers of other parties and those defeated during the primaries after the 2019 election when a president emerged who would pilot affairs of the country up till 2023.
The price of rotation system
If for instance President Buhari wins in 2019 at the age of 76, he would roundup his tenure in 2023 at the age of 80 as other contenders watch the political permutations.
Analysts believe that the concept of rotational presidency has technically come to stay in the Nigerian political system, at least for now, and most political parties would have to respect this unconventional gentleman agreement to remain relevant in the scheming.
The PDP partly suffered its devastating defeat in 2015 when in defiance of the principle of zoning, ex-president Goodluck Jonathan insisted on going for another term. This was after the northern hegemony initially wanted him to “step aside” in 2011 after he completed the remaining first term of late President Umaru Yar’adua.
The Nigerian constitution does not speak about rotational leadership, it only speaks about federal character in employment opportunities and political appointments, but the issue of rotation for most elective political offices at all levels have come to stay and political predators are not willing to let it go.
It has now become an important and indispensible component in the polity with experts saying it is just “a contraption at a great expense of real democracy which dictates that the majority should have its way.”
A lawyer, Barrister Aminu Yusuf, told Daily Trust that though he never believed in power rotation, “Our hungry politicians tactically make it an unwritten law and it is now hunting them.”
He added: “It is gratifying that rotation is gradually taking its toll on politicians about 20 years into the experimentation because many of them, including the active and passive, would naturally go into oblivion because they must vacate their offices in line with the agreed principle.
“Many of them are simply milking ethnic diversity to have an edge in the political equation. They mercilessly deploy religion, region, ethnicity and other mundane issues during electioneering after hiding under the toga of ‘it is our turn’, all in an effort to capture power.”
“I think this is basically why many politicians of northern extraction are desperately hoping to get power now. This is simply because, by the time President Buhari wins a second term, they would have to wait for the next 12 years to start fighting for the Presidency. You would agree with me that by 2023, it would be the turn of southern Nigeria to produce the next president, he may come from any of the three geo-political zones there depending on the other factors that would come into play.”
Another analyst, Lukman Hussaini, said by the time the zoning formula returns to the North in 2031, many of those with presidential ambition would have been far from the corridors of power, a development that might likely make it difficult to cope in the race.
“Most politicians aspire for higher offices while they are in control of other key officers such as governor, a well-established senator or minister. With the exception of Obasanjo and Buhari, other presidents in this dispensation had some of these factors at their disposal,” he said.
“I strongly believe that if the present northern aspirants stay far from power, their political value and outreach would wane after 12 years, meaning compulsory retirement for them and they could only play the role of kingmakers or consultants,” he added.
The age factor
The second factor, according to analysts, is that if the present crop of politicians from the North who want to experience the aura of the Presidency fail to get it in 2019, they must have a rethink about the aspiration because age would not favour them.
The least age of all the aspirants now is 60 and in the event President Buhari wins next year and rounds up in 2023, the person that would emerge from the South may likely be on the saddle until 2031 and by then, almost all of the northern aspirants would be over 70 years old.
For instance, ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar, an aspirant under the PDP, was born on November 25, 1946. He is now 72 and if luck comes his way and he defeats President Buhari next year, he would be around 80 years by the time he completes his second term.
But in the event he doesn’t get it, he would be around 85 years old when another chance for the North would come, an advanced age for someone outside power to seek it even by African standard.
But A.A Uba, the Director General of Tested and Trusted Atiku Nationwide, a group pushing for the presidential candidature of the Waziri Adamawa, told Daily Trust that their principal would win this time around, insisting there was no need to talk about his age.
“Stop talking about 2031 because this is Atiku’s time, there are clear indications he would win, the mood in Nigeria and abroad is that Atiku is the man to beat because his commitment is unshakable,” he said.
Uba, however, added that in the event Atiku does not get it, the anticipated 2031 would not be late for the former vice president to try again.
“Atiku is not looking for money, he is not looking for power for the sake of it. If he was desperate about power, he would have connived with ex-president Obasanjo in 2007 and succeeded in getting a third term and they would have been in power up till this time. But Atiku fought the third term agenda gallantly for democracy to thrive, so Nigerians should give him a chance,” he said.
Sources said meetings are being held by some elements in the North Central, the much touted Middle Belt, the South South and South East to prop up ex-Senate President David Mark as the PDP flag bearer in 2019.
Mark was born in April 1948, meaning he is 70 years old now. It would be good news for him if he wins but in the event he loses, he would be 83 when the pendulum of zoning tilts towards the North in 2031.
Alhaji Sule Lamido, a former governor of Jigawa State who never hid his love for the Presidency on the platform of the PDP, was born on August 30, 1948, meaning he too would soon be 70 years old. He would celebrate his triumph in no small measure if he gets it right in 2019. But in the event the slot falls on the head of any other candidate in the North, the former Foreign Affairs minister would have to wait for 2031 and by then, just like David Mark, he too would campaign for the Presidency at the age of 83.
Another willing contender for the Presidency is the former governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa who was born on November 4, 1954, meaning he is 64 years old this year. In the event the Buhari Tsunami or any other contender sweeps him away next year, he would be 77 years old in 2031 when the contest returns to the North.
A former governor of Kano State, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, is 63 years old this year because he was born on November 5, 1955, meaning he would be 76 years old by 2031 if he finds it difficult to fulfill his lifelong ambition of taking over the Villa next year.
But his media aide, Malam Sule Ya’u Sule, said the issue of age was immaterial, noting that there are presidents across the world that attained the age of 80 or 90 while in power.
He said what should occupy the minds of Nigerians is the health status of the politician in question, adding, “If by 2031 the politician is fit to contest an election, there would be no problem if he does.”
Sule Ya’u Sule added that the only argument that could probably hold water is if the recent clamour for power shift to the youth is anything to go by.
“If we have something like that, the elders should start thinking of handing over to the younger ones,” he said.
The former governor of Kaduna State, Sen. Ahmed Makarfi, is in the same age bracket with Malam Shekarau because he was born on August 8, 1956, meaning he is 62 years old.
Many believe that Makarfi is a versatile politician who managed the PDP at its trying moments and succeeded in salvaging the party at its most trying times, hence eminently qualified to pilot the affairs of Nigeria when the opportunity avails itself.
However, in the event he doesn’t make it in 2019, he too would have to wait till after 12 years and by then he would be around 75 years old.
While Makarfi was born in August 1956, his ex- counterpart in Kano State, Sen. Rabiu Kwankwaso is only two months younger because he was born on October 21, 1956. This means they might likely be in the same “retirement” group in the event none of them makes it to the Villa next year.
Another name being touted for the Presidency is the incumbent governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El- Rufai, who analysts are saying might not look the other way in the event President Buhari has a change of mind under the APC. Born on February 16, 1960, El-Rufai is now 58 and would be 70 by 2031.
The paradigm shift factor
It is only those who frequent the social media that would see the agitation by Nigerian youths to take over the mantle of leadership. The catch phrase is that they want to join the league of countries with state leaders that are not over 40 years old, insisting that the present crop of leaders should give way.
The #Not Too Young To Run bill is in their mind, as they say the bill should accented to by President Buhari once it is passed. Indeed, there are examples of many countries where their democracies have opened up for the youths and this is what Nigerian youths are looking as the ideal template.
They also give examples of young state leaders around the world who emerged under different circumstances, not necessarily democracy, such the President of France, Emmanuel Macron who is 41, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Volodymyr Groysman who is 40 years old, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, who is 37, the Captain Regent of San Marino, Matteo Ciacci, who is 27 years old, the Chancellor of Austria, Sebastian Kurz, who is 31, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, who is 35 years old, among others.
A lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Bayero University (BUK), Dr. Ahmad Sa’idu Dukawa, said the future of the North depends on the arrangements the region has in respect to zoning and succession.
“If the North is so lucky that its elder politicians have mentored younger politicians, then the region will not have any problem by the time power returns to it in 2031, but if it is something else, then the region will face serious political challenges,” he said.
“It is still not late for the older politicians in the North to start mentoring some young generation politicians that will take over from them. And I am sure if they are mentored properly, the younger politicians can as well do their best moving the country forward,” he said. (Daily Trust)
