Election is a war of sorts in Nigeria. It creates a nightmare for government, the electoral agency, political parties, candidates, their supporters, voters and even other Nigerians who usually sit on the fence during polls.
Why should elections be so difficult or problematic in Nigeria? The answer lies in the fact that stakeholders often refuse to abide by the rules of the game.
Will today’s governorship poll in Osun State be a departure, or an exception? Will the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) improve on its last outing in Ekiti?
Voters are heroes on polling day. It is said that 76 per cent of registered voters have collected their Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVCs). This implies that a high voters’ turnout is expected. But, whether the election will be free, fair and credible will depend on the stakeholders-electorate, candidates, electoral workers – permanent or ad hoc – and security agencies.
Osun State has the highest number of towns in Nigeria. It is a large state with 30 local government areas. Although a Yoruba speaking-state, there is no homogeneity. Its vastness and diversity, notwithstanding, the Ijesa, Ife, Oyo and core Osun co-exist peacefully. Its big towns include Osogbo, Ede, Ife, Ilesa, Ila, Iree, Ijebu-Jesa, Ikire, Ikirun, Ejigbo, Ilobu, Iwo, Okuku, Igbajo, and Esa-Oke.
Fundamentally, Osun is a progressive enclave. In the First and Second republics, majority of the indigenes were followers of Chief Obafemi Awolowo. The state was carved out of the old Oyo State on August 27, 1999 by the military government under General Ibrahim Babangida. Following a tour of the old Oyo State, the military leader declared that some states were too large, a hint of his intent to split the state.
In the Third Republic, the short-lived civilian administration in the state was headed by the late Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke of Serubawon (Bully Them) fame.
But, the state had a full dose of progressive governance when Chief Bisi Akande, chieftain of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD), was in the saddle. The beat stopped in 2003, following the political earthquake that swept across the Southwest. Only Asiwaju Bola Tinubu survived among the six AD governors in the hitherto poll-confident region.
Akande was displaced by Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). After four years, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, the symbol of Oranmiyan Group, won the governorship poll on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). But, the loser was declared winner by the electoral commission. The battle shifted from the ballot box to the court. The mandate was restored in 2010.
Although Aregbesola was re-elected in 2014, his party nearly lost the poll in 2018. His successor won by a slim margin. It was a narrow escape for the ruling party.
Today’s exercise is still about the two major parties: the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP. Other mushroom parties cannot spring any surprise. The 13 smaller parties lack formidable structures to cause any upset.
In Osun, the other parties are merely warming the INEC register. Their candidates, more or less, are aggrieved chieftains who defected from the dominant parties, following their failure to secure tickets. Although they display a lot of bravado, they are still very weak. After the election, they are likely to jettison their borrowed platforms and retrace their steps to their original parties.
Today’s poll is crucial to the APC and PDP for some reasons. APC intends to demonstrate that the Southwest, its stronghold, and base of its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Tinubu, is impenetrable by the opposition. It is part of its 2023 calculations. In fact, the Southwest chapter is still nursing the pains of the defeat it suffered in Oyo State.
But the PDP is interested in aborting that agenda to rekindle hope. The opposition’s defeat in Ekiti, where its candidate, Otunba Bisi Kolawole, was abandoned to his fate by the party leadership, was devastating. The poll result underscored a sort miscalculation and weakness due to protracted division and disunity.
Yet, the election is a repeat match between Governor Gboyega Oyetola and his arch rival, dancing Senator Ademola Adeleke. Both men were once locked in a battle for the Government House in 2018.
There was tension. And controversy followed, as the election was declared inconclusive.
Oyetola eventually triumphed at the supplementary poll, to the chagrin of Adeleke, who was disowned at the last minute – a critical moment – by big chieftains of his from Ife-Ijesa axis who loathed his candidature, led by the grassroots politician, Senator Iyiola Omisore.
But, APC would have even won on first ballot, if it had put its house in order. Reconciliation had failed in the party in the aftermath of the governorship primary. The crisis was compounded by the defection of some chieftains, including a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), ‘Sheu’ Moshood Adeoti, who ran on the platform of the African Democratic Party (ADP) and got over 3,000 votes, in vain. The involvement of Adeoti in the election resulted in the split of the APC.
It is evident that APC still has internal issues to contend with. Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola, who is Oyetola’s predecessor, is not backing the governor’s re-election bid. Until two days ago, his boys were still in court challenging the governor’s eligibility for the election. This is worrisome to many national chieftains of the party who are now rallying round Asiwaju Tinubu as they forge ahead for the 2023 polls. If Oyetola wins today without Aregbesola’s input, it may have implication for the minister’s future political career.
The bane of the Southwest progressive bloc is the weakness of its conflict resolution mechanism, clash of egos and lack of forgiving spirit by the two sides. Past mistakes are often repeated through their “fight to the finish” attitude.
The headache of the PDP is that its primary could not throw up a candidate that could command mass acceptance. Adeleke’s street wisdom is an advantage. But, its impact is limited. The elite, particularly those who can now be described as his more educated and highly refined foes, do not see him as a material for fulfilling their aspirations and yearnings for a better Osun.
Adeleke is from a prominent family in Ede. His father was an Awoist senator in the Second Republic and his elder brother, the late populist Senator Isiaka Adeleke, was a former governor.
When the younger Adeleke boasted about dollar and pound sterling war, it was not an empty boast and threat. Another of his brother, Deji, is one of the richest in the country.
Few days ago, David Adeleke (aka Davido), a globally popular music star, was in Osun to campaign for the PDP candidate. Though the move might have been used to entertain some youths, it may not give Ademola Adeleke the necessary mileage, especially among the voting adults in today’s poll.
In looking at manifestos, there is no line of difference. The governor is in a vantage posi tion of a tested administrator who can also be trusted. Oyetola has directed attention to his achievements as a silent worker without making much noise. The feats are verifiable: infrastructure battles, redress of past injustice, transparency and accountability, increased worker’s welfare, payment of gratuities and pensions, and an atmosphere of peace pervading the state.
Osun voters have a unique opportunity to choose between Oyetola and Adeleke. The two parade different credentials.
A successful businessman, with undisputed corporate experience, Oyetola, a native of Iragbiji, served as Chief of Staff for almost eight years under Aregbesola. In the last three and a half years, he has tried to live up to expectation, despite obvious constraints.
Osun is a poor state. The governor has judiciously managed its meagre resources without allowing loopholes and vulgarity. The reality is that Oyetola has mirrored his distant predecessor, Chief Akande, in prudent management of resources. His motive is not acquisition of wealth but erection of lasting legacies.
The governor, according to observers, has served with utmost fidelity, patriotism and candour. In the Southwest, governors who have performed creditably are never acknowledged until years after their exit.
Other candidates are merely criticising the government of the day instead of unveiling their plans of action that will make them look like credible alternatives. None of them has accused Oyetola of planlessness, profligacy, embezzlement or any act of corruption.
Adeleke filled the senatorial position that became vacant, between 2017 and 2019, following his brother’s demise. Not much was known about him before he joined the fray and record of his performance in the National Assembly is also scanty. His campaigns have been very lively because he is like an entertainer.
It is gratifying that the gladiators have resolved to follow the path of decorum, going by the peace accord brokered by the National Peace Committee. To keep the peace, the police are not leaving anything to chances. A Deputy Inspector General, four Assistant Inspectors General, many commissioners of police, deputies and assistants have stormed Osun.
Trouble makers, thugs and other agents of violence run the risk of their lives if they attempt to disrupt the exercise in any local government.
Instructively, electoral offenders are being tried to serve as deterrents.
INEC should also play its part throughout the stages of the exercise. The commission’s workers should resume early and accreditation should be seamless. The machines should not malfunction. There should be no room for malpractices.
Stakeholders should also rise against vote-buying. The electorate should cast their ballot according to their conscience.
Voters should not mortgage the future of their children by accepting money to vote today and suffer for their action tomorrow. (The Nation)
