Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, looks set to win an election from his prison cell in The Hague.
The populist dubbed “The Punisher” in his home country – was arrested in March on charges of crimes against humanity related to his notorious “war on drugs”, which human rights group allege involved the extrajudicial killings of up to 30,000 people.
Mr Duterte appeared to admit ordering the killings in a speech in 2018, but his spokesman later said that his comments “should not be taken literally”.
But while he awaits trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for allegedly overseeing the brutal anti-narcotics crackdown, he is also favourite to win the mayoral election in Davao – a city that is home to 1.8 million people.
Mr Duterte, who has previously denied any wrongdoing, remains a popular figure in Davao, where he spent 22 years as mayor before assuming the presidency in 2016.
His family have established a dynasty in the city, and four of his children and grandchildren are also running for office.
If anything, his arrest has only served to galvanise support.
“His ICC arrest doesn’t really shake [the] core of who Duterte is but rather, paradoxically, it only reinforces what Duterte stands for,” Cleve Arguelles, a political scientist and the head of the polling company WR Numero, told CNN.
Before Monday’s vote, supporters wearing T-shirts with slogans demanding Mr Duterte’s release were common across the city, while some posed with cardboard cut-outs of the politician outside his home.
At a rally for his 80th birthday in March, thousands of people flooded the streets dressed in green – the colour associated with Mr Duterte’s political party.
“I’ve seen what he accomplished as both mayor and president, from his fight against drug lords to what he did for the country,” said 28-year-old Jennifer Maumbas, who works in a café in Davao. “No matter what happens, we’re solidly for Duterte.”
Mr Duterte is among the candidates vying for 18,000 national and local seats in Monday’s midterm elections, which analysts say will decide if he and his family continue to hold political power amid a bitter feud with the Marcos dynasty.
After Mr Duterte’s term in office ended, his daughter Sara joined forces with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr – the son of the country’s former dictator. Mr Marcos took the top job, with Ms Duterte as his vice-president.
Yet that formidable but fragile partnership has since imploded.
“The 2025 midterm elections will be crucial, because the results will set the pace for what will happen next, which family or faction will dominate the elections in 2028,” said Maria Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.
A tussle for half of the 24 seats in the Senate is being watched especially closely.
After the polls, Ms Duterte will face an impeachment trial in the upper chamber, having been accused of misusing funds and amassing unexplained wealth. She denies the allegations.
If impeached – at least 16 votes are needed to convict her – Ms Duterte would be removed from office and face a lifetime ban from politics, scuppering her hopes of running for president in 2028.
In a speech at a rally in Manila last week, Ms Duterte claimed that the family’s name has been “dragged through the mud” and the country is “paying the price for electing the wrong leader”.
She said: “Who will really benefit if the Duterte family is gone from this world? Not the Filipinos, not the victims of crime, the unemployed, the poor or even the hungry.”
The ICC said that a hearing will be scheduled “in due course” for Mr Duterte’s initial appearance.
(The Telegraph)
