Tens of thousands of Russian troops have massed on the borders of Ukraine, stoking fears Moscow could invade its ex-Soviet neighbour.
World leaders are desperately trying to find a diplomatic solution to avert what they perceive as an imminent attack by Russia on Ukraine.
Britain believes Vladimir Putin is planning a “false flag” event as a pretext for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine as soon as Wednesday. The CIA has warned Nato allies that based on intercepted intelligence an invasion could take place on Wednesday, though Boris Johnson and Joe Biden agreed in a call on Monday that there was still a “crucial window” to avoid war.
Mr Putin has blamed the United States for arming its enemies in Ukraine, as he took part in a series of calls with Mr Biden and Emmanuel Macron.
On Saturday, Ben Wallace drew parallels with the 1930s policy of appeasement by saying there was “a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West”.
Here we break down how the crisis reached this point and what could be next.
What’s happening?
Up to 130,000 Russian troops, alongside 1,200 tanks, fighter jets and long-range missile batteries have massed on Ukraine’s eastern border. The troop build-up has sparked the biggest crisis in East-West ties since the Cold War.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry has also accused Russia of using naval drills as a pretext to isolate the country from its Western allies, with spokesman Oleg Nikolenko tweeting: “We strongly protest Russia’s decision to block parts of the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait under the pretext of naval drills.” Ukraine is preparing a response, according to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
On February 11, Belarusian and Russian forces also began major joint exercises aimed at practicing “repelling external aggression”, in what has been described as a “dangerous” and “violent” gesture aimed at European security.
Moscow and Minsk have not disclosed how many troops are participating in the 10-day war games, but the US and Nato have estimated that Russia has sent around 30,000 combat troops plus weaponry and other military equipment to its ex-Soviet neighbour.
Russia has put forward a list of security demands including a guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato and that alliance forces pull back in Eastern European countries that joined after 1997.
The West formally rejected Russian demand to pull out Nato forces from eastern Europe, while expressing willingness to talk about arms control and confidence-building measures.
Mr Putin warned that a Ukrainian accession to Nato could lead to a situation where Ukraine launches military action to reclaim control over Russian-annexed Crimea or areas controlled by Russia-backed separatists in the country’s east.
On February 10, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, speaking at a joint press conference with Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, called on Europe to hold firm on Ukraine’s right to join Nato, warning any Russian invasion would be an “absolute disaster” and result in “serious bloodshed”.
What’s behind the crisis?
There has been tension between Moscow and Kyiv since Ukraine declared itself independent of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The situation escalated in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine and sent troops to support a separatist uprising in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
Ongoing clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have killed around 14,000 people and two million people have been displaced.
A peace agreement signed in Minsk in 2015stopped the worst of the fighting but has failed to deliver a settlement of the conflict because of disagreements between Kyiv and Moscow over how it should be implemented.
What does Putin want with Ukraine?
Mr Putin maintains that Ukraine is fundamentally part of Russian civilisation, both culturally and historically, and has questioned whether it is even a real country.
Mr Putin also sees Russian dominance of Ukraine as fundamental to Russian security. The wider context is that the crisis is a challenge to what he views as an unfair agreement imposed on Russia at the end of the Cold War.
He views Nato’s expansion towards Russia as an existential threat and claims Moscow’s military movements are a response to Ukraine’s growing ties to the alliance and hopes that via this crisis he can push back. Asserting power over Ukraine is part of his push to affirm Russia’s place among world powers, including the US and China.
How big is the risk of invasion?
Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the buildup of Russian forces for weeks, said images taken on February 9 and Feb 10 showed significant new deployments in Crimea, western Russia and Belarus.
Russia has denied that it has any plans to invade Ukraine – but tensions are extremely high and Mr Putin has threatened “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures” if “Western aggression” continues.
On February 7, Mr Putin said he hoped the escalating crisis in Ukraine could be resolved peacefully but declined to say he was ready to pull back the troops near the Ukrainian border after marathon talks with Emmanuel Macron.
Ukrainian officials have questioned the risk of invasion, saying they see no sign of attack in the next few weeks.
Mr Zelenskiy signed a decree to boost his armed forces by 100,000 troops over three years and raise soldiers’ pay, saying he had done so “not because we will soon have a war… but so that soon and in the future there will be peace in Ukraine”.
What happens next?
Publicly, the US and European allies have promised to hit Moscow financially like never before if Mr Putin does roll his military into Ukraine. Russian oligarchs close to Mr Putin face asset freezes and travel bans in a toughening of UK sanctions laws.
Britain published new legislation on February 10 broadening the scope of those linked to Russia who could be sanctioned in the event that Moscow decides to invade Ukraine.
New laws will allow the UK to impose tough penalties on those close to the Kremlin and involved in destabilising Ukraine. It is part of an international effort to outline the economic consequences for Russia.
The Minsk set of agreements were signed in 2014 and 2015 by the leaders of the four nations as a response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Meanwhile, support for Russia is coming from China. Their two foreign ministers “coordinated their positions” during a meeting in Beijing.
(Daily Telegraph)
