Nigeria’s total public debt rose by N57.3tn within the first 18 months of the current administration, according to an analysis of data released by the Debt Management Office.
The increase represents a 65.6 per cent surge in the debt stock, growing from N87.38tn recorded at the end of June 2023 to N144.67tn as of December 2024.
President Bola Tinubu, who assumed office on May 29, 2023, inherited a debt portfolio that already reflected heavy domestic obligations, including a N22.7tn Ways and Means balance from the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, within a year and a half, Nigeria’s borrowing profile expanded sharply, driven by increased local debts and a steep depreciation of the naira.
At the end of June 2023, the DMO reported that Nigeria’s total external debt stood at N33.25tn, while domestic debt was N54.13tn. By December 2024, external debt had jumped to N70.29tn, while domestic debt climbed to N74.38tn.
The rise in external obligations, both in absolute and proportional terms, marks a shift in the composition of Nigeria’s debt, with foreign debt now accounting for nearly half of the country’s total debt stock.
In dollar terms, however, the debt picture looks different. The total public debt declined from $113.42bn in June 2023 to $94.23bn by December 2024, reflecting a nominal decrease of 17 per cent.
But this reduction is not due to lower borrowings. It stems from the sharp depreciation of the naira, which fell from an official exchange rate of N770.38 to $1 in June 2023 to about N1,535 to $1 by the end of 2024.
The exchange rate movement significantly impacted the naira valuation of Nigeria’s dollar-denominated debts. Although the dollar amount of foreign borrowings remained relatively stable, the naira value nearly doubled.
The Federal Government’s external debt, for instance, rose from N29.9tn in June 2023 to N62.92tn by December 2024, while that of the states and the Federal Capital Territory increased from N3.35tn to N7.37tn over the same period.
There was also a notable reduction in the domestic debt of sub-national governments. States and the FCT owed N5.82tn in domestic debt as of June 2023, which fell to N3.97tn by December 2024. This drop may reflect a decline in their access to more debt as borrowing costs surge.
At the federal level, the total debt obligation — combining domestic and foreign borrowings — climbed from N78.21tn to N133.33tn, indicating that the Federal Government remains responsible for over 90 per cent of the country’s total debt.
The growing weight of external debt has also altered the structural balance of Nigeria’s debt portfolio. In June 2023, external debt accounted for 38 per cent of the total. By December 2024, that figure had risen to nearly 49 per cent.
The PUNCH also observed that the Federal Government of Nigeria’s domestic debt has increased by over N22.1tn since President Bola Tinubu assumed office, rising from N48.31tn as at June 30, 2023, to N70.41tn by December 31, 2024.
This reflects a 45.7 per cent surge within an 18-month period, according to detailed data from the Debt Management Office.
At the end of June 2023, FGN’s domestic debt stock stood at N48.31tn, largely dominated by FGN Bonds, which made up about 86.9 per cent of the total, amounting to N41.97tn.
Nigerian Treasury Bills followed with N4.72tn, while other instruments such as Sukuk, Savings Bonds, Green Bonds, and Promissory Notes contributed marginally to the total. Notably, Promissory Notes were valued at N780bn, and Sukuk at N742.56bn. Green Bonds and FGN Savings Bonds accounted for less than 0.1 per cent each.
By December 2024, the debt had ballooned to N70.41tn, representing a nominal increase of N22.1tn. A significant portion of this jump was driven by the conversion of the N22.7tn Ways and Means Advances previously owed to the Central Bank of Nigeria into tradable bonds — a move approved by the National Assembly and the President in May 2023.
This restructured debt alone accounts for over 32 per cent of the domestic debt increase recorded since Tinubu came into office.
FGN Bonds remained the dominant instrument in the debt portfolio as at December 2024, standing at N55.44tn, including N54.03tn in standard local currency bonds and N1.41tn in domestic US dollar bonds.
This category accounted for 78.7 per cent of the total domestic debt. Treasury Bills surged to N12.35tn, almost tripling from their June 2023 level, signalling an increased reliance on short-term borrowing during the second half of the year.
FGN Sukuk grew to N992.56bn, while Savings Bonds rose to N72.87bn. Green Bonds remained unchanged at N15bn.
Promissory Notes jumped significantly to N1.54tn, doubling from their June 2023 levels. Of this amount, N425.6bn were naira-denominated, while the remaining N1.12tn were foreign currency-denominated promissory notes owed to local residents.
One notable feature of the 2024 debt structure is the growing role of foreign-currency instruments in domestic obligations. For instance, the US dollar-denominated FGN bond issued on September 6, 2024, valued at $917.41m, was converted to naira at an official exchange rate of N1,535.32 to $1.
Similarly, foreign-denominated promissory notes worth $727.24m were converted using the same rate. This inclusion of hard currency debt into the domestic portfolio points to a broader trend of leveraging dollar-based instruments within the local debt market, likely to appeal to foreign investors or diaspora subscribers.
The increase in short-term instruments such as Treasury Bills also indicates liquidity pressures on the government’s side, as it sought rapid funding to plug budget shortfalls.
While Treasury Bills accounted for just 9.8 per cent of FGN debt in June 2023, they rose to 17.5 per cent by the end of 2024. The expansion of domestic debt has also taken place against a backdrop of aggressive fiscal reforms and naira depreciation.
Since the unification of the exchange rate in June 2023, the naira has lost substantial value, dropping from N770.38 to N1,535.32 against the US dollar.
While the devaluation directly affects external debt more severely, it also indirectly impacts domestic borrowing costs as inflationary pressures rise and investors demand higher returns.
Overall, the 45.7 per cent growth in FGN domestic debt since President Tinubu took office reflects both legacy liabilities and new borrowing to fund deficit spending.
The PUNCH further observed that the Federal Government’s external debt stock has risen from $43.16bn in June 2023 to $45.78bn by the end of December 2024, showing a moderate growth of $2.62bn, equivalent to 6.1 per cent.
While the increase may appear relatively contained in dollar terms, the naira valuation of this debt has ballooned dramatically due to the sharp depreciation of the domestic currency during the same period.
At the onset of the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s external debt stood at $43.16bn, according to the Debt Management Office’s June 2023 report. This included loans from multilateral and bilateral creditors, as well as commercial borrowings through Eurobonds.
By December 2024, the figure had increased to $45.78bn, with new issuances and disbursements from international lenders contributing to the growth. Multilateral institutions remained the largest source of external funding, accounting for nearly 49 per cent of the total stock as of December 2024.
Loans from the International Development Association of the World Bank alone amounted to $16.56bn, up from $14.03bn in June 2023. Similarly, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development component of the World Bank rose from $485.75m to $1.24bn, while borrowings from the African Development Bank climbed from $1.55bn to $2.10bn.
The International Monetary Fund, which had extended emergency support under the Rapid Financing Instrument in earlier years, saw its exposure fall sharply from $3.26bn to $800.23m, suggesting repayments or adjustments during the review period.
The IMF recently confirmed that Nigeria has fully repaid the $3.4bn financial support it received under the Rapid Financing Instrument to cushion the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a statement sent to journalists during the week on behalf of Mr Christian Ebeke, the IMF Resident Representative for Nigeria, the Fund said the repayment was completed on April 30, 2025.
The loan, disbursed in April 2020, was aimed at helping Nigeria address a sharp fall in oil prices, economic contraction, and fiscal pressures caused by the pandemic.
The PUNCH further observed that bilateral creditors such as China, France, Germany, Japan, and India maintained a significant presence in Nigeria’s debt profile. Loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, Nigeria’s largest bilateral lender, increased from $4.73bn in mid-2023 to $5.06bn by year-end 2024.
France’s Agence Française de Développement maintained its exposure at around $592.60m, while Germany’s Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau dropped slightly to $105.78m.
Japan and India held relatively small positions, with combined obligations of less than $75m as at December 2024. Commercial debt also expanded notably. Nigeria’s Eurobond obligations rose from $15.62bn in June 2023 to $17.32bn by December 2024.
This $1.7bn increase reflects new issuances aimed at plugging fiscal deficits and managing foreign exchange liquidity. The Eurobond portfolio, constituting 37.8 per cent of total external debt, remains a critical component of Nigeria’s international funding strategy, albeit at a higher interest cost and subject to global market volatility.
The 2024 data did not reflect any outstanding Diaspora Bonds or significant syndicated loans, with the only syndicated credit being a $54.87m facility from Deutsche Bank.
One key difference between the two periods is the elimination of promissory notes and syndicated loans as a major component of external debt. In June 2023, Nigeria owed $931.7m in promissory notes and $300m in syndicated loans arranged by the Africa Finance Corporation.
These items were likely settled by December 2024, resulting in their disappearance from the debt table. The modest rise in external debt in dollar terms masks a much larger increase in naira terms due to exchange rate movements.
In June 2023, the CBN’s official rate stood at N770.38/$1. By December 2024, the naira had weakened to N1,535.32/$1. As a result, the naira valuation of the $45.78bn in external debt reached N70.29tn, compared to N33.25tn for the $43.16bn debt in mid-2023.
This means that while Nigeria added just over $2.6bn in new external obligations, the naira value of this debt more than doubled within 18 months.
The Tinubu administration’s reform efforts, including the removal of fuel subsidies, the floating of the naira, and attempts to improve tax collection, have not yet halted the debt buildup.
The implications of the rising debt are already visible in the federal budget. Debt servicing costs have consumed a growing share of government revenue. Although the Tinubu administration has pledged to improve revenue generation and cut wasteful spending, fiscal consolidation has remained elusive.
The PUNCH further learnt that the Federal Government is seeking a new $500m loan from the World Bank to support a nationwide initiative aimed at revitalising key agricultural value chains and creating jobs across Nigeria.
Details of the request were contained in a Project Information Document released by the World Bank on May 1, 2025.
The loan, titled Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth, is expected to be approved by December this year, with the Federal Ministry of Finance listed as the borrower and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, alongside selected state governments, as the implementing agencies.
According to the document, the project aims to foster sustainable growth and job creation across selected agricultural value chains, particularly rice, cocoa, cashew, and cassava.
The document stated, “This project intends to contribute towards addressing these challenges through adopting an inclusive agricultural value-chain development approach combining cross-cutting and value chain–specific interventions.”
The proposed intervention is expected to address key bottlenecks in productivity, infrastructure, market access, and policy reforms that have hindered the growth of Nigeria’s agricultural sector for decades.
The Bank described Nigeria’s agriculture sector as critical to economic growth and rural livelihoods but beset by low productivity, infrastructural gaps, land tenure insecurity, and weak access to finance.
It noted that while agriculture contributed 25 per cent to the GDP in 2024 and accounted for 40 per cent of non-oil exports, the sector remains largely underdeveloped and informal, with labour productivity levels significantly below global averages.
“Nigeria’s agriculture labour productivity, averaging $3,527 per worker annually, is less than half the global average of $7,782 for middle-income countries,” the World Bank stated.
The new facility will support a combination of public investments and private sector-focused reforms, including support for irrigation infrastructure, seed and fertiliser systems, climate-smart agriculture, post-harvest storage and processing centres, and regulatory streamlining to promote agribusiness investments.
It will also support land administration reforms to improve tenure security and enable land-based financing, particularly in areas prioritised for irrigation and value-chain clustering.
The document also identified severe food insecurity as a pressing issue. “In 2024, over 31 million Nigerians were estimated to have experienced acute food insecurity,” the World Bank noted, citing inflation, conflict, and climate-related disruptions as major drivers.
Nigeria was ranked 110th out of 127 countries in the 2024 Global Hunger Index. To ensure impact and transparency, the programme will adopt a results-based financing structure and will require states to meet eligibility criteria annually to access project funding.
According to the document, the states that meet reform and implementation benchmarks will receive a larger share of funding, encouraging healthy competition and accountability.
The programme is expected to benefit rural communities, including women and youth, while strengthening the capacity of farmer cooperatives, research institutions, and agribusinesses.
The Bank said the private sector would play a central role throughout the programme cycle, from design to implementation, with incentives such as credit guarantees and risk-sharing tools to de-risk investments.
The World Bank added that the project aligns with Nigeria’s agricultural policies, including the National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022–2027), and supports the Country Partnership Framework’s goal of promoting job creation and economic diversification.
The Washington-based lender earlier approved three financing operations totalling $1.08bn to support education, nutrition, and economic resilience in Nigeria.
According to a recent statement on the bank’s website, the concessional loans are aimed at improving the quality of education, building household and community resilience, and enhancing nutrition for underserved groups. (Punch)
