Fresh data from the downstream regulator of the oil sector has revealed that marketers have resumed large-scale importation of refined petroleum products, choosing not to patronise local refineries.
Findings by The PUNCH, based on the latest fuel supply data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, showed that a staggering 71.38 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption in May and June 2025 was met through imports.
The remaining 28.62 per cent was sourced from the $20bn Lekki-based Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This indicates that marketers, who are expected to access products locally with ease in the country, are instead spending the country’s scarce foreign exchange to import refined petroleum products.
The NMDPRA disclosed this during a presentation to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee for the month of June 2025. Our correspondent obtained a copy of the presentation on Sunday.
An analysis of the FAAC document revealed that out of a combined total of 3.25 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit consumed during the two months, 2.32 billion litres were imported, while only 927 million litres came from local refineries.
A comparative analysis of petroleum product supply and distribution showed that June’s PMS import stood at 34.10 million litres per day, making a total of 1.023 billion litres, while local production contributed just 15.2 million litres daily and 455,188,512 litres within the period.
In May, imported PMS averaged 43.22 million litres daily, totalling 1.297 billion, with local refining accounting for 15.74 million litres, totalling 472.07 million per month.
Further analysis disclosed that 455.2 million litres of PMS were trucked out from refineries, while depots accounted for 985.6 million litres, representing an 18.55 per cent increase from the 1.22 billion litres recorded in May. The average daily distribution was 48 million litres in June, from 54 million litres, with the number of trucks rising from about 37,000 in May and 32,000 in June.
It also showed a monthly supply variance of -16.42 per cent between May and June, dropping from 1.77 billion litres in May to 1.48 billion litres in June. With an average pump price of N905 per litre, marketers spent a total of N2.1tn on imports within the review period.
A state-by-state breakdown of truck out figures showed that Lagos State alone accounted for 205.66 million litres, the highest among the 36 states and the FCT. Ogun State followed with 88.69 million litres, while the Federal Capital Territory came third with 77.5 million litres.
Other top-consuming states included Oyo (72.8 million litres), Delta (68.5 million litres), and Kano (68.2 million litres). The data suggests that the southwestern and north-central regions continue to lead in fuel demand, a trend analysts attribute to higher population densities, economic activities, and increased vehicular movement in urban centres.
In contrast, states such as Yobe (11.7 million litres), Jigawa (9.4 million litres), and Ekiti (15.3 million litres) recorded the least volumes of PMS dispatched during the same period.
Apart from PMS, similar reliance on importation was seen in the supply of Aviation Turbine Kerosene and Household Kerosene, where over 99 per cent of total volumes were imported. ATK recorded a daily average of 1.89 million litres in June, up from 1.80 million litres in May, while HHK’s daily supply declined from 1.25 million litres in May to 0.86 million litres in June.
For Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) used predominantly by industries and logistics firms, imported diesel rose from 7.3 million litres daily in May to 8.7 million litres in June, despite local production also increasing slightly.
The report also disclosed that Liquefied Petroleum Gas was entirely imported, with zero local production recorded in both months. A total of 116.4 million litres was imported in May, but no LPG was supplied in June.
This development comes against the background of renewed agitation by the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, requesting President Bola Tinubu to include refined petroleum products in the list of items banned under the ‘Nigeria First’ policy of the Federal Government.
Speaking at the just concluded Global Commodity Insights Conference on West African Refined Fuel Markets hosted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority in partnership with S&P Global Insights, Dangote requested in clear terms that petrol, diesel, and other refined petroleum products be added to the items banned by the policy.
According to him, fuel importation into Nigeria is killing local refining and discouraging further investments in the sector and even the economy. To remain viable, he urged governments across Africa to take deliberate steps as the United States, Canada, and the European Union have done to protect domestic producers from what he called unfair competition.
“The Nigeria First policy announced by His Excellency, President Bola Tinubu, should apply to the petroleum product sector and all other sectors,” he stated.
But this was unanimously rejected by oil marketers and industry analysts. Recall that daily fuel imports into the country had significantly declined to just 14 million litres per day in April, marking one of the lowest volumes recorded since the deregulation of the downstream sector.
Speaking in an interview, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, warned that any move to ban the importation of petroleum products could cripple the industry and hurt the Nigerian economy.
He noted that calls to outlaw fuel importation in favour of domestic refining, particularly by the Dangote refinery, were premature and could entrench a monopoly with dire consequences for independent marketers and consumers.
“We fear monopoly. The fear of monopoly is the beginning of wisdom,” Ukadike said. “We have been battling with pricing for a very long time. Most of our marketers have lost millions of naira because of a pricing template that was once controlled by NNPC, and now seems to have shifted to Dangote,” Ukadike stated.
He added that IPMAN was not against the success of the Dangote refinery but stressed that cheaper prices, rather than legislation, should be the tool to phase out imports.
“If Dangote wants to monopolise, let him do it with lower prices. Compete on price, not by pushing for policies that eliminate competition.” He stated that despite being locally refined, Dangote’s PMS was not the cheapest on the market.
Ukadike said independent marketers were under immense financial pressure and relied heavily on bank loans to sustain operations. He warned that any attempt to restrict their supply sources would threaten their survival and reduce consumer options.
“Dangote has openly stated that he is not in the retail business. So how do we sustain retail operations when the only supplier is offering higher prices and we have no room to negotiate?”
He further urged the Federal Government to address the high levies and port charges faced by marketers when lifting products from Dangote’s refinery in Lagos.
Ukadike said, “Marketers are currently burdened by multiple charges from NPA, NIMASA, and others, many of them denominated in dollars. How can you talk about reducing pressure on forex while asking indigenous businesses to pay port charges in foreign currency?”
Also, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, kicked against the call to ban fuel Importation. He said no one company should be allowed to dominate the downstream sector in a free economy.
While admitting that there is a need to ban the importation of some goods, he said these should not include fuel, stressing that Nigeria needs multiple sources of energy. “I don’t agree with Dangote. We are running a free economy. There’s no reason why any one company should have an overarching value on the entire industry.
“Importation is not killing the economy. Importation is stabilising the sources of petroleum products. Importation of all products is useful,” he stated.
Reacting, the Chief Executive Officer of PetroleumPrice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, attributed the trend to importers’ ability to secure cheaper landing costs for petrol, in contrast to the coastal price structure used by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
He said the sharp pricing competition is currently rattling Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, with over 80 per cent of petroleum importers and private depots in Lagos selling petrol at rates lower than Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot price.
The analyst disclosed this in an exclusive interview with The PUNCH on Sunday. Olatide said the development has significantly affected sales volumes at the $20bn Dangote Refinery, which only recently began phased distribution of refined petrol.
“Looking at the price trajectory in July, 80 per cent of importers and private depots in Lagos priced petrol cheaper than Dangote’s ex-depot rate because importation gives them the opportunity to get cheaper landing cost against Dangote’s coastal price,” he said.
“This has brought about a complete decline in sales at the refinery, while importers experienced a sharp rise in sales. The private depots have been responding swiftly to Dangote’s pricing strategy lately, and this clearly shows that importers are strategically positioning themselves for the August 15 roll-out by Dangote.”
While the Dangote refinery is expected to ramp up supply of petrol to the domestic market by mid-August, market players are already bracing for a wave of policy changes and market realignments that could follow.
“August 15 is going to spring up surprises. The downstream sector will experience some policy shifts and power tussle,” Olatide added.
He explained that importers, aware of the stiff competition ahead, ramped up cargo volumes in June to cushion any potential supply squeeze from the local refining giant.
“They are aware that the only way to fight back is through competitive pricing, and it can only be achieved through sourcing cheaper products abroad. That’s the reason for the uptick of petrol imports in June,” he said.
An energy expert at the University of Lagos, Prof Dayo Ayoade, also warned against banning fuel Importation, saying this would promote monopolistic tendencies.
“No, we cannot have a ban on petroleum imports. It’s not a legal ban. That would not be acceptable because we don’t have diverse sources for petroleum products. We can’t rely solely on the Dangote refineries. That would give a monopoly to a private individual.
“And for the reasons of energy security and national security, that would be completely unacceptable. The government should continue to encourage, liberalise, and ensure that other refineries come upstream. NNPC may want to privatise or sell off its refineries, then that’s fine. But we need to have a better base of product market before we now start to say we want to ban imports,” he said.
He queried what the local and international laws say about banning products.
“And you know, when we talk about bans, we have to look at international trade. International trade law does not really sit well with banning things. So, we have to be clever about how we do it. But if the market is ripe, it will be more expensive to bring in things from other countries than our own products, provided they are of sufficient quantity and the quality is fine,” the don submitted.(Punch)
