Halfway into Bola Tinubu’s first term, Nigeria’s ambitious economic transformation is faltering, hampered by insecurity, deepening poverty and global trade shocks, despite sweeping reforms and rising government revenues.
Two years ago, Bola Ahmed Tinubu was inaugurated as Nigeria’s 16th president, pledging to grow the economy to $1trn, eradicate extreme poverty, and overhaul the country’s security infrastructure to stimulate agriculture and oil production. He also promised to pursue an Africa-focused foreign policy. Now, at midterm, how has he fared?
Since taking office on 29 May 2023, Tinubu has implemented a series of painful but, by his account, necessary economic reforms. His 2025 budget was branded a “budget of restoration”, underpinned by optimism that Nigerians would soon begin to see the rewards of their sacrifices. He likened the hardship to labour pains preceding the joy of childbirth. But the prolonged, excruciating pains earned him the nickname T-Pain.
Tinubu projected that by now, the naira would stabilise at N1,500 to the dollar, oil prices would average $75 per barrel, daily production would reach 2.2 million barrels daily and that an improved security framework would boost agriculture significantly, ultimately bringing down inflationand guaranteeing prosperity for poor Nigerians.
Although the reforms, such as the removal of petrol subsidy and the floatation of the currency, sparked a cost of living crisis, they increased the government’s revenue and reduced deficit spending, which allowed the administration to introduce some lofty programmes like a student loan fund.
Tinubu’s policies also led to investment pledges of over $30bn, even though they have yet to materialise. Fitch ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term rating to B, from B-, with a stable outlook on the back of the reforms.
At the beginning of 2025, there were grounds for optimism. By January, Nigeria’s trade surplus was $2.2bn from $1.06bn the previous month due to rising exports on the back of the devalued currencywhile the exchange rate reached a seven-month high as it closed at N1,474/$1.
However, poverty, insecurity and an international tariff war spearheaded by Donald Trump now undermine Tinubu’s reforms, thereby foreclosing the possibility of any reprieve for the more than 133 million people living in multidimensional poverty.
The verdict from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) summed up the state of affairs: “The government has taken important steps to stabilise the economy, enhance resilience, and support growth,” Axel Schimmelpfennig, IMF Mission Chief for Nigeria, wrote in a statement.
“But those gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians, as poverty and food insecurity remain high,” the IMF stated in its latest report, while the World Bank expects poverty to rise to 57% within two years.
Tariff turbulence
Nigeria’s oil-based economy makes it vulnerable to shocks in global prices. It depends on crude exports for nearly 90% of its foreign exchange and about 56% of its anticipated government revenue in 2025.
Africa’s largest country projected 2.06 million barrels of crude per day in 2025, but has failed in this respect. Government data shows that in January, the country produced 1.495 million barrels per day and 1.47 million daily in February, according to ThisDay newspaper. This meant a deficit of 21.6 million barrels in the first two months of 2025.
Expectations that Trump’s tariffs would slow the global economy and reduce energy consumption have affected the price of crude oil futures, as Brent crude has been trading between $59 and $64 barrels per day in recent weeks. With inflation still high, the central bank has maintained high interest rates which on the upside has attracted foreign portfolio investors into the country and boosted foreign exchange liquidity, but has slowed economic growth as businesses are charged up to 30% for loans.
The president’s tax reforms have yet to kick off as they have remained stalled in parliament for the last six months. Even so, complaints of fiscal recklessness persist as government officials refuse to cut waste despite public outcry.
“The two years have remained challenging for the government, the citizens and businesses due to the reforms. But these reforms also increased revenue and reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market,” said economist Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, who concedes that the social costs of the reforms have been high and have affected living standards.
Rising insecurity
Security, which had briefly improved late last year, is again deteriorating. In Benue, a state which prides itself as Nigeria’s food basket, security had improved last year but has now deteriorated. Scores have been reported killed in the Christian-dominated state due to an age-long strife between farmers and nomadic cattle herders. At least 57 people were killed in the first three weeks of April.
In neighbouring Plateau State, which produces 90% of Nigeria’s potatoes, more than 100 people were killed in the same period.
“The attacks on farmers in Benue will affect food supply across Nigeria. We can’t even farm,” said Terna-Kester Kyenge, a former agriculture commissioner. He tells The Africa Report that a major crisis is in the offing if the Nigerian government doesn’t take urgent action.
The situation is grimmer in Borno State, where Vice President Kashim Shettima hails from. The state had since 2009 battled an Islamist insurgency that left at least 40,000 dead and millions displaced. After 18 months of calm, Boko Haram has resurged, reportedly killing 14 farmers in Gwarzo and more than 50 people across the state over two weeks. Governor Babagana Zulum says the group is reclaiming territory and abducting residents with increasing boldness.
Many attribute the resurgence in the attacks in the North East to the frosty relationship between Nigeria and Niger following the sanctions that Tinubu had slammed on the landlocked country over the coup that brought in General Abdourahmane Tiani in 2023. The Tinubu-led ECOWAS had threatened to invade Niger to restore democratic rule but later backed down. However, this was not enough to undo the frosty relationship as Niger along with Burkina Faso and Mali exited the regional bloc altogether.
Niger followed up by pulling out of the multi-national joint task force, a security alliance comprising soldiers from Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria. This left the western flanks of the Lake Chad Basin area vulnerable, security officials said.
Now Tinubu is on a mission to bring Niger back into ECOWAS and mend fences but these renegade countries remain adamant.
“We must admit that President Tinubu made a mistake with the Niger issue because no security plan is better than having good relationships with your neighbours,” said Sadiq Shehu, a former spokesman for the Air Force.
Shehu tells The Africa Report that it was dangerous for Nigeria – which is surrounded by francophone countries – to have deepened ties with France at a time anti-French sentiments were at an all-time high in Africa. The retired officer, however, said it is not too late to restore trust.
He adds that the Nigerian government ought to recruit more military operatives because the current military strength is overstretched. Nigeria has just 230,000 military personnel on active duty, Shehu said. They restore peace in crisis areas and then leave to attend to other communities, only for insecurity to erupt again in the area they just left.
Re-election hopes
Despite governance challenges, Tinubu’s re-election prospects have improved, largely due to a disorganised opposition, according to analysts. Internal rifts and adverse court rulings have left rival parties in disarray. Many opposition politicians are defecting to Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress, which the administration frames as a vote of confidence.
“The president is receiving praises from politicians, many of whom are defecting. But they are less than 1% of the population. You cannot judge by what they do,” said Anthony Kila of the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies.
Kila also warns that Tinubu’s democratic credentials are at risk, citing the political crisis in Rivers State and his administration’s role in the legislative impasse in Lagos. (The Africa Report)
