With the 2027 presidential election still two years away, political manoeuvring—including late-night meetings and the courting of former President Muhammadu Buhari, now seen as the new bride on the block—has intensified to fever pitch.
While nocturnal meetings have long been a staple of Nigerian politics, the curious trend of politicians from both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition making strategic ‘pilgrimages’ to the Kaduna home of the former president for closed-door discussions and photo-ops has caught many observers by surprise. This is largely due to Buhari’s perceived aloofness from active politicking and the politicians’ detour from their usual destination—the hilltop residence of former military president Ibrahim Babangida.
These recent visits to Buhari, though often cloaked in courtesy, reveal a deeper power play unfolding behind the scenes.
Buhari’s quiet ‘return to power’
Hitherto seen as detached from post-office politics, Buhari is quietly becoming a political magnet, with various camps seeking his endorsement, goodwill, or at least his neutrality. The recent defection of his close ally, former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai, to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has only intensified speculation about the former president’s current political leanings.
Thus, when former Vice President Atiku Abubakar—who recently announced a coalition of opposition parties to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu—led a group of top politicians including El-Rufai and former Sokoto State governor Aminu Tambuwal on a Sallah visit to Buhari’s Kaduna home, several commentators interpreted it as an open courting of the former president. His allies in the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) are already rumoured to be plotting an exit from the APC.
Even though Atiku insisted during a post-visit chat with journalists that the meeting was not about politics, the rumour mill was not helped by El-Rufai’s cryptic message after the meeting.
“By the way, our adversaries should not lose any sleep. It is not about politics. It is about unity and brotherhood. And since we are all politically irrelevant, we just prayed and enjoyed lunch with our mentor,” El-Rufai said in a sarcasm-laced post on his social media platforms.
While the opposition coalition’s visit was preceded by one from APC governors a few days earlier, the revelation that the APC’s National Working Committee (NWC), led by its national chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, arrived at Buhari’s residence only hours after Atiku’s group had departed further heated up the polity. It also lent credence to the perception that the APC leadership was concerned about the former president’s political body language.
Observers noted that Ganduje’s comments after the meeting—where he downplayed the importance of Atiku’s visit—essentially confirmed that the APC was doing all it could to ensure Buhari’s political base remains with the ruling party. This move comes as the opposition coalition gains momentum, particularly amid growing disenchantment with Tinubu’s administration in the North.
It could also be recalled that during the Ramadan season, Seyi Tinubu, the president’s son, paid a courtesy visit to Buhari among other northern political leaders during his controversial tour of the region.
Politics of fear or battle for northern loyalty?
Political commentator Shamsudeen Ibrahim described the Ganduje-led NWC visit to Buhari as driven by “fear—the fear of losing grip, the fear of losing the North, and the fear of a fragmented base. It’s not about brotherhood. It’s about survival.”
He added, “That the same party now treats Buhari like a shrine of relevance, after publicly distancing from his policies, reveals the short memory of power players. In their quest for political dominance, consistency becomes collateral damage. The Nigerian populace, unfortunately, continues to bear the brunt of these shifting allegiances.”
For both the opposition and especially the ruling party, Ibrahim described the current situation as “a masterclass in political double-speak.
“It’s a reminder that in Nigeria’s political theatre, loyalty is seasonal, perception is paramount, and history is often rewritten on the altar of convenience. In the end, Buhari remains seated—calm, silent and perhaps amused—as the same actors who once blamed him now beg for his blessing,” he added.
Why the opposition needs Buhari
Also weighing in on the recent spate of visits to Buhari, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Umar Sani, said the Atiku-led coalition “needs Buhari in several ways. One, they need him to remove the CPC bloc from the APC, which would weaken the APC and confer advantage on some of the opposition parties. Secondly, Buhari is still the most popular politician in the North.”
While it could be argued that Buhari’s popularity has waned after his two-term presidency, Sani noted that “it has not waned significantly to the extent that he has no say in northern politics. He is still very popular with the masses. They still look at him as somebody who is their leader.”
Sani, who was a media adviser to former Vice President Namadi Sambo, added: “Most people are trying to co-opt him so that if he speaks to the people and to the sentiments of the people, perhaps they will get an advantage. The ruling party is very much aware of that.”
Buhari’s enduring clout and the myth of the 12 million vote bloc
According to him, the APC is also trying to remind Buhari of the sacrifices made for him to become president in 2015 and 2019. He noted that while emissaries had long been visiting him in Daura, Buhari’s relocation to Kaduna—closer to the federal capital—signals that he may be ready to return to active political engagement.
Asked whether these visits suggest a shift in the North’s political power centre, especially as Babangida’s residence had previously served as the go-to destination ahead of elections, Sani said while Babangida remains influential, Buhari now holds a unique position.
“This is the first time the North is having a former military leader who has also proven himself democratically by winning a presidential election twice,” he said.
He recalled that with the exception of the 2007 election—when Buhari lost to the late Umar Musa Yar’Adua, a fellow northerner—he had consistently secured at least 12 million votes in previous contests.
“Now, most people believe that with Buhari, at least, northern votes are secured. You can get votes in those areas that were previously no-go zones for any political party. So, the shift is predicated on the fact that, as a tested politician—even as a military man—he was very popular, but his popularity was dwarfed when he was overthrown. But now that his popularity has refused to wane, most people will now shift to Buhari. And anybody that Buhari embraces in 2027 should be confident of having quite a significant number of votes in the North,” Sani said.
However, during the 2023 presidential election, many began to question the potency of the so-called 12-million vote bloc. Buhari’s non-committal stance and perceived waning influence were seen as key factors behind the underwhelming performance of the APC candidate, Bola Tinubu, who secured just over eight million votes—barely ahead of Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s Peter Obi, who each garnered over six million votes.
Observers argue that more Nigerians, especially in the North, who had previously been critical of Buhari’s administration, are now viewing his tenure more favourably in comparison to Tinubu’s two-year-old government, which has struggled with deepening economic hardship, insecurity and rising poverty. This shift in sentiment, they believe, could once again make Buhari a key influencer whose political nod will be sought after in the lead-up to 2027.
2027 endgame: Who will Buhari back?
Dr Saidu Dukawa, a public affairs analyst, added that the visits serve as a public display that preparations for the 2027 elections are in full swing, and are aimed at appealing to the sentiments of those who remain loyal to the former president.
Dukawa, a senior lecturer in the Department of Public Administration at Bayero University Kano (BUK), said: “In time, similar visits are likely to be paid to former presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan to achieve the same objectives. However, there may also be behind-the-scenes motives that will only become clear once they have either materialised or failed to do so.”
Also commenting, Dr Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, said the development is intriguing because former President Buhari has not shown that he can be relied upon to lead a political movement in which he is not the direct beneficiary.
“What seems to be happening is that both the ruling party and the opposition recognise that northern votes will make the difference in 2027. Whoever can mobilise those votes needs to be courted. Buhari remains popular with a section of the northern masses. If he openly supports the opposition, it will pose a major problem for Tinubu. The issue, however, is that his extremely self-serving politics may not allow him to clearly back either Tinubu or the opposition,” he said.
(Daily trust)
